Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar free falls as Fed hikes return

Heading into the end of the trading week, risk markets are falling out of bed due to the latest COVID variant news, with Asian stock markets heavily sold off and USD bid up strongly, although Yen safe haven bidding is also gathering pace.  Gold has broken out somewhat, although this has been overshadowed by other risk off events and is currently just shy of the $1800USD per ounce level while Bitcoin has rolled over to be under the $58K level as daily resistance overhead as proven too hard to beat in the latest dead cat bounce:

Chinese shares are selling off everywhere with the Shanghai Composite down more than 0.5% lower at 3566 points while the Hang Seng Index is being sold off very sharply indeed, down over 2% to 24213 points. Japanese markets are having the worst time however, with the Nikkei 225 currently down nearly 3% at 28633 points with the USDJPY pair sharply inverting on the risk off move, seeing Yen bid off strongly with the pair back below its recent historic high at the 114.70 level:

Australian stocks couldn’t escape the carnage with the ASX200 currently down 1.7% to be at 7281 points as the Australian dollar has bounced off the diving board again, cracking well below the 72 level to the low 71’s making yet another monthly low:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are down sharply to almost new weekly lows going into the London open with momentum switching to oversold as overseas markets react to the virus news. The S&P500 four hourly chart shows price heading back to the previous weekly lows at the 4650 point level with support very close below:

The economic calendar finishes the week with a whimper, just a few ECB speeches and not much else.

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Comments

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Dutton’s taking us to war with those nice Chinamans.

      Hey, maybe it will take property prices with it. Silver lining and all that.

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Could II Dutto make a grab for the big chair before the election ……might be his only chance to be PM
        ….even if only for a few weeks

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Ahhh yes, the Chinese Valiant. Some beautiful designs that could kill in the wrong hands.

            B.

          • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

            Sadly unture. Once he plugs in some new ears, eyes, mouth and nose parts, he’ll have a second go and they won’t even know it’s him having another try.

  1. Why A Universal COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate Is Ethical Today

    https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20211029.682797/full/

    “Mandates should only be used if they are needed. Individuals should first be educated about vaccination and its effectiveness—along with any potential risks—and then be encouraged to get voluntarily vaccinated. Incentives to encourage voluntary vaccination should also be tried.

    A public health mandate should also only be instituted after robust public debate, in which there has been an opportunity for all people to voice their opinions. This has already happened. Indeed, social media have enabled all voices to be amplified and heard, sometimes over and over again. Those who prefer to remain unvaccinated will be disappointed to feel the pressure of a mandate. Not getting your way when you live in a democracy, however, does not mean you were excluded from the deliberative process.

    Unfortunately, public debate and voluntary means have not been enough. When education, encouragement, prodding, and even incentivization have failed, and when harms from outbreaks are ongoing, then coercion in the form of mandates is ethically justifiable.

    By “coercion,” we do not mean that anyone is going to be strapped down and jabbed with a needle against their will, or that this should happen. There is still a choice not to be vaccinated, but because that choice imposes substantial burdens, risks, and possible harm to others, it is reasonable for it to carry significant costs. For some, choosing not to be vaccinated will mean not holding a certain job, not enrolling in a school, or not being allowed to attend a public event. These implications are admittedly coercive, but coercion is justified when we are facing a terrible public health threat that involves many people getting infected and dying every day.”

  2. Someone should hug Hugh and what is the odd of the new S.A. variant putting things back to before square one and how will that effect places like the U.K. and the U.S. as everyone not in the 20% gets the burnt end of the stick just 12 years after the GFC …. whoboy …

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      anz always come in in the news for such grubby issues, when they’ll learn the Reusa way (do it but never get caught) !!??

  3. Hey booma haven’t you got a story like this one from Bubbley?

    BubbleyMEMBER
    November 26, 2021 at 5:17 pm
    Wow – Real estate news direct from the source.

    One of my clients is an agent and for the last 2 months has been explosively busy.

    Now – Stopped. Just stopped.
    She had 2 showings at the weekend and zero people, another agent had 8 showings and zero people. Those in the industry have been talking and it appears to be the same for them.

    She also had a couple of clients from Victoria that are going to sell and go home now that Vic is coming out of lock downs.
    Looks like the party is over in the NT.

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      You’ve got a good memory. Posted that years ago
      Central Coast RE many years ago told me he had been selling nicely and one Sat came to work And Nothing.
      Not one call, describing it as,
      Though someone just turned the lights off.
      Instantaneous stop of client flow.
      After the 89 crash, all Aust similar.

    • ‘She also had a couple of clients from Victoria that are going to sell and go home now that Vic is coming out of lock downs’
      Darwin summer coming have something to do with that ?

        • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

          Victorians would go troppo in NT..I’ve seen it few times..they just lose it..lose it completely

      • That’s what I’m hoping. We are definitely in the build up. My sweat moustache currently has its own sweat moustache. Hopefully it rains this weekend.

        The real estate sales market has apparently started to slow down. I think affordable rentals will remain hard to come by for a while. I wouldn’t like to be a low income renter having to renegotiate a lease up here at the moment.

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Quite an easy fix,
      don’t know why they have to go GB for advice.
      Whatever happened to the Steel City’s expertise.
      Died with boomer retirement. Then get them back to work.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        They’ve got Downer on to it, who once were Walkers in Maryborough who have 150 years of knowledge. There’s also Goninan still operating under a new name that I don’t know.

        We can do this and it sh!ts me that no one cares.

      • and what economic camp set the stage for everything all you and yours lament … better yet were rusted on and helped drive that agenda on everyone else …

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        My fitter mate works for a privatised workshop that maintains and repairs state rail rolling stock.
        He reckons their trains have all been shyte since they stopped procuring the Newcastle built ones for foreign built.

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          Had to teach fitters at a railways workshop classroom how to hand scrape sliding steam valves for restoration of steam locomotive as all the younger blokes had no need for that knowledge previous to that.

  4. So ScoMo brought the hammer down on Bridget Archer today and then suggested that she take some time off while being paired. It seems she told him to GFH.

    If she keeps this up, she might even win her seat.

    • It is probably ASIS that is making trouble in the Solomons……we will know if the PM is deposed and the agreement with China voided……….our first coup ! We are getting in the big time.

      • reusachtigeMEMBER

        As we should. One of the best things America has done is depose commie leaning governments.

  5. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    My mate just sold this for almost 1.9 million in Sydenham.
    You can see the facial expressions of passengers in the windows of landing aircraft flying into Sydney from his out door furniture.
    It was my favourite part of visiting my mate Ridgy. Watching so many of those monsters land while drinking beers.,…so many beers.
    He is another one, leaving me behind, on his way to Queensland.
    Sigh.
    🥺
    https://www.realestate.com.au/property/75-park-rd-sydenham-nsw-2044

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      10-15 years ago you’d be lucky to get 300k for that. Awesome boom times for that area. At about the same time loosers on here were loosing. Has that “Don’t buy now” evil scumbag been executed yet? (Covid has made me pro-public-execution – I can feel its merits building deep inside. Life has little value, if it’s scum, and gets in the way of freedom.)

        • reusachtigeMEMBER

          I always said he would disappear in shame. And he did. Years ago. Told Solar Boy the same thing. Same thing happened. Sadly people got suckered by that false profit just like don’t buy now scumbag. Why do they stick to sh1t on here in the hope of cult love?

          I’ve been telling everyone on here it’s boom times for many years yet they’ve hated me for my positive advice that would have made them rich. 300k on a westie flight path sh1thouse back then would give the 2 mil now. 2 mil !!

          What’s wrong with you people? Learn to profit!! And if that means you destroy the weak in the process it’s your win and their loss. For eternity. So get on with it!

    • Good grief. 1.9? There? Not prying but curious, what multiple of household income in that area for that type of dwelling?

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      K mart meets alfresco…….such quiet understated style
      and in Sydenham too….a steal at that price …( sorry ..level of debt )

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        I remember thinking they were crazy buying that for around 500k 12 or 13 years ago.
        Barely over 200 m2 and the planes couldn’t be more than 100m up when coming in to land.
        The flight path is 45 degrees out from the “alfresco” area.
        The Jacuzzis got some stories.

        • TailorTrashMEMBER

          “I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.”
          Isaac Newton

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            You know there is only one man in this entire world that I would let jack me off in a jacuzzi and I think you know who that man is my little Metrobius.

            “However, even though he [Ermington Plumbing] had such a wife at home, he consorted with actresses, harpists, and theatrical people, drinking with them on couches all day long. For these were the men who had most influence with him now: Roscius the comedian, Sorex the archmime, and Metrobius the impersonator of women, for whom, though past his prime, he continued up to the last to be passionately fond, and made no denial of it.”

            😘

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            Well to quote Plutarch again,

            “It was this laxity, as it seems, which produced in him [Harry] a diseased propensity to amorous indulgence and an unrestrained voluptuousness, from which he did not refrain even in his old age, but continued his youthful love for EP, a Plumber”

            Maybe a propensity (homo stuff), as old as civilisation itself, isn’t meant to be quit.

          • bubbah buddhaMEMBER

            There must be a lot of heady tombs of litreature clogging bogs in Ermo or do said clients just wipe their derieres with nothing but the classics?

  6. Not vaccine related but…
    During the 2021 financial year in Victoria the crime incident rate per 100,00 people was down 6.6% v the 12 mths to Jun20.

    That is there were less criminals in Victoria as a share of population.

    Given there were less criminals v non-criminals in 2021 (and less criminals threatening non-criminals) should Dan Andrews make crime legal?

  7. The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

    Harry!!!! I’m still wondering what’s the factoid you wanted to share couple of weeks ago, 🤔 😕 🙃

  8. Completely predictable that a new variant pops up in a country with a 23% vaccination rate.
    But will this stop the anti vaxxers claiming the vaccines cause the mutations and new variants despite science and all evidence saying the exact opposite – where the highly vaccinated countries see very few variants.
    Anti vaxxers are not only vessels for current variants. they are also the perfect natural laboratory for the evolution of new ones. But this is their “right”.

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      I won’t blame the people in South Africa, Maybe cause of the high rate of poverty 🤔 and the lack of the state’s ability to provide the vaccine.
      What’s the Vax rate in Japan and how did they manage to have it mutate to extinction?
      Here in Victoria it’s above 90% vaccination and still getting high numbers, why NSW isn’t getting same numbers?

      • I’m not blaming people who would willingly have the vaccine if it was available.
        I am blaming the anti-vaxxers.

    • Properly vaccinated populations will have nothing to fear from this new strain.

      The statistics will soon show that fully vaccinated people will not die from the new strain.

      Anyone who speaks differently is an anti-vaxxer and should be cancelled.

      What part of safe AND EFFECTIVE don’t you understand? Sweeper = anti-vaxxer.

          • Ha? What’s your link meant to tell me.
            From your link:
            “Why didn’t the WHO trumpet the importance of sending vaccines to developing economies, targeting above all their HIV positive populations? Instead, all they did was bleat when the first world started launching boosters, that they should stop until 10% of the population of emerging economies were vaccinated. 10%? With no recommendation of prioritizing populations that could incubate variants“
            I agree with that. Pace of vaccination has been too slow and hasn’t been targeted. 2 years into this and nothing has been learned.

          • You are obviously so blinkered, first vaccines were for the wild variant and still does not stop transmission, then delta blew right past it, and now as predicted we have a new variant that surpasses delta. You obviously don’t follow the science community discussing this before it gets politicized and I’m not talking about randoms on UTube or MSM.

            Worst of all the notion that vaccination rates by themselves would fix everything is false. It takes a flexible multivariate approach to limit the potential of covid and save lives. Do you get the factors like the high HIV dramas in Africa and how that effects the evolution of this new covid variant.

            Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s warning in late January 2020, which was not heeded: that the downside of Covid-19 was that it could be a pandemic, and the risk was that of ruin.

            https://necsi.edu/systemic-risk-of-pandemic-via-novel-pathogens-coronavirus-a-note

        • “And we are collectively about to pay for the eagerness of the officialdom to declare the pandemic over at every possible turn and put all their chips on a non-sterilizing vaccine, which is very useful at preventing worst outcomes of the current variants, but does little to prevent transmission of Delta due to its very high replication rate. Yet the authorities have been bludgeoning the public to get vaccinated, not to protect themselves and keep the medical system from breaking down, but as a confidence-builder, based on the inaccurate claim that the vaccines stop spread.

          In the US, Biden administration systematically failed to support or actively denigrated all non-pharmaceutical interventions. It actively encouraged the vaccinated to abandon masks (positioning non-masking as proof of virtue). The CDC and WHO have been silent on ventilation and have actively opposing the aerosol theory of transmission. Even social distancing has been discouraged with Fauci recommending that the vaccinated carry on as if it were the old normal over Thanksgiving.

          Now, when we need non-pharmaceutical interventions to hold the line until some sort of vaccine/treatment rescue arrives, they have all been systematically undermined and rendered dysfunctional by Biden’s vax only policy (a view embraced by the Democrat base and indeed taken as a marker of tribal affiliation).

          By letting business drive public health policy with its quest for a “return to normal,” the entire last year was squandered, not just NPIs, but testing, contact tracing, international infection control standards, everything. We said this amounted operational to “Let ‘er rip.” B.1.1.529 may show us the true cost of that recklessness.”

          https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021/11/probable-vaccine-escaping-covid-variant-sequenced-in-gauteng-south-africa-and-spreading-rapidly-press-underplaying-downside-risk.html

          Do you have a comprehension problem Sweeper and then double down on past opinions due to path dependency.

          • Then he has the cheek to talk about science and trust in how citizens respond in the here and now and future …. who will listen when its squandered to forward some ridiculous political ideology for point scoring in the face of a novel[tm] virus pandemic. What kind of humans use such rhetorical devices and what is their ultimate agenda that would compel them to stupefy others for some notion of advantage, uncaring how that effects everyone regardless of personal views or tribalism – during a global health crisis, and then wrap themselves in the cloak of well meaning responsibility to all.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Anyone got any tips for race 6 and race 10 a Rosehill tomorrow.
      They are my punters club bets for the day.
      We’ve got just under 5 grand to spend which is just under break even.
      I was one of only 3 to make more than I put in and I basically achieved this over the year with multiple small place bets on the 2nd and 3rd longest odds paying over 10/1.
      How’s that for a sophisticated system.

  9. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    Omicron variant of Covid-19 has ‘unusual but mild’ symptoms, doctor who raised alarm says … Peta Thornycroft and Will Brown … UK Telegraph / Stuff New Zealand

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/africa/300465027/omicron-variant-of-covid19-has-unusual-but-mild-symptoms-doctor-who-raised-alarm-says

    The first South African doctor to alert the authorities about patients with the Omicron variant has told The Telegraph that the symptoms of the new variant are unusual but mild.

    Dr Angelique Coetzee said she was first alerted to the possibility of a new variant when patients in her busy private practice in the capital Pretoria started to come in earlier this month with Covid-19 symptoms that did not make immediate sense.

    They included young people of different backgrounds and ethnicities with intense fatigue and a six-year-old child with a very high pulse rate, she said. None suffered from a loss of taste or smell. … read more via hyperlink above …

    • Jumping jack flash

      I heard this too this morning. Hopefully this is good news, but I remember they said the same thing initially about Delta as well.
      Some still say Delta is more mild than the original COVID. Who knows what’s true any more? There are agendas being pushed all over the place using this as leverage.

      I wager the official word will be “get the vaccine naow! Get two or three, to protect you from the evil Omicron” whether it is a more mild infection or not.