Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Heading into the end of the trading week, Asian stock markets are starting to find some bullishness helped by lower domestic currencies across the region as USD remains very strong against most of the major currency pairs. Gold is climbing very slowly but has been unable to get back above the $1800USD per ounce level while Bitcoin too remains under a lot of pressure with the coil of volatility on the four hourly chart still suggested an imminent breakout as crypto bans are starting to make waves against sentiment:

Chinese shares are again diverging but this time mainland shares are falling back with the Shanghai Composite closing 0.2% lower at 3584 points while the Hang Seng Index has lifted again to be  up 0.2% to close at 24743 points. Japanese markets also had a bounceback with the Nikkei 225 gaining more than 0.6% to close at 29499 points with the USDJPY pair is hanging just above the 115.30 level after recently making a five year high:

Australian stocks were again listless with the ASX200 taking back the mild losses of the previous session to gain just 0.1% to close at 7407 points as the Australian dollar is hovering just above the 72 level after previously making a new weekly and monthly low:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are rising going into the London open with momentum now solidly switching from oversold to nearly overbought on the S&P500 four hourly chart showing price heading back to the start of the week level above 4700 points:

The economic calendar will include the release of the latest FOMC minutes, German GDP estimates, and the ECB minutes with a speech by Largarde thereafter.

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Comments

  1. To The Mocker (and any political journalists that may be interested)

    Loved your article

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/despite-being-fully-vaccinated-im-an-antivaxxer-who-knew/news-story/a30c244991df2a09d9cd6d6e1d96b282

    Far be it for me to suggest that any politician using language that is both highly emotive and actually very weak in logic (with biased reference to medicine and science) is in fact backing down by sending very strong signals that may seem counter intuitive (seen as acting strong but is actually on the ropes hehehe). May I humbly suggest that perhaps you could be interested in a blog that talks about signals and looking for cover before capitulating

    https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2021/11/macro-afternoon-1246/

    an extract

    Perhaps you need cover to let the unvaccinated out in December and perhaps this article provides it. THIS FEELS LIKE A MASSIVE SIGNAL IS BEING SENT but who knows. Well known Medical experts saying yeh nah gotta let people out say December (my calculations based on their comments) and you can say I HAVE LISTENED TO THE WELL KNOWN HEALTH EXPERTS AND I AM LETTING UNVACCINATED OUT in December. But who knows

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/giving-vaccination-a-bad-name-experts-say-jab-lockouts-can-end-at-90-percent-20211122-p59b4t.html

  2. Jumping jack flash
    November 25, 2021 at 8:52 am

    Greedy corporate upper tiers needing all that debt capacity!

    I saw some mention of wage regulation in the US but it wasn’t in a favourable light. They were discussing that they shouldn’t need to regulate wages like they did supposedly in the 70s, i dont know, i wasn’t alive then. However, it is a real possibility, probably not an ideal one, but a possibility.

    The people need the higher wages to spend and consume, and most importantly, buy more debt.
    Reply

    skippy
    November 25, 2021 at 5:22 pm

    OK firstly JJF you have this propensity to couch everything in an ill defined nomenclature of Debt[tm], look debt is not a monolith nor is it akin to slavery. No matter what token is used to symbolize, firstly sovereign money and even informal money, they all are forms of debt because at the end of the day it represents a contractual agreement. Now if you want to argue the bargaining power or the representation concurrent to the establishment of a contract, by all parties involved, then we might discuss the pros or cons of said debt.

    Ref: wage regulation – its a huge point of contention for all involved because of above and the dynamics that surround it e.g. power makes laws. Even know people that have spent entire lives in economics lose good friends [decades] over it. For myself I grow hair on my back teeth when some say the labour market, please someone show me 24mo of a market dynamics with this mythological beast, at the same time the more appropriate term is used e.g. a labour pool. Two totally distinct terms of reference and meaning. Hence why I support a JG to set a living wage floor for labour, get rid of NAIRU, and then let the market do its thing. So at the end of the day I guess I’m saying, I’m not sure the idea of setting a minimum wage is the best policy due to complexities, but offering a JG for building skills [payed TAFE] or a means to transition between employers or skill sets, over ones life productive time is a better social/market outcome and might unleash even more productivity or potential.

      • Hey Skippy, in 2011 Occupy Melbourne was forcibly evicted from their protest sites twice.
        Do you think the hard right should be moved on from the steps of Parliament or still allowed to defile the site of Victorian democracy and the original seat of The Commonwealth of Australia – under the guise of their right to be vessels of deadly pathogens?
        Thoughts?

          • Distinction being that the Occupy protests conscious aim was to improve the position of the vulnerable, the far rights aim – not that they can sort through the drugs and delirium and join the dots and comprehend their aims – is to subject them to a deadly virus.

          • All Statutes can be repealed.
            So all laws are determined by election cycles up to a point.
            Are you saying that shouldn’t be the case?

          • Why don’t you clearly state your views here.
            Why are you taking the side of Reusa and co and discrediting the vaccine policies.
            Is it your view that Western Democracy is so far gone, so bought off, it would abandon science and jeopardize the health of it’s citizens – concentrated overwhelmingly in the vaccinated ruling class – in exchange for big pharma profits, whose management and shareholders themselves are being vaccinated?

          • You can see my policies I advocate for in my reply to JJF and have stated many times the broad PKE/MMT view. I’m against false or misleading information about covid and its politicization, per se jabs and let it rip rather than the Swiss cheese or layered approach supported by science and not corporate pharma.

  3. Not vaccine related but…
    During the 2021 financial year in Victoria the crime incident rate per 100,00 people was down 6.6% v the 12 mths to Jun20.

    That is there were less criminals in Victoria as a share of population.

    Given there were less criminals v non-criminals in 2021 (and less criminals threatening non-criminals) should Dan Andrews make crime legal?

    Thoughts?

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