Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

The mixed start to the trading week for Asian stock markets continued with most bourses going nowhere, while Japanese share markets reopened with some large losses even as Yen continues to soften against USD. The USD remains very strong against most of the major currency pairs with Euro and Pound Sterling still at weekly lows while gold has been unable to climb back above the  $1800USD per ounce level. Bitcoin too remains under a lot of pressure with a coil of volatility here suggesting an imminent breakout as crypto bans are starting to make waves against sentiment:

Chinese shares are finally moving in the same direction with the Shanghai Composite closing 0.1% higher at 3593 points while the Hang Seng Index has bounced back to be up 0.6% to close at 24815 points. Japanese markets returned from their holiday with the Nikkei 225 slumping more than 1.5% to close at 29302 points with the USDJPY pair retracing ever so slightly back from above the 115 handle:

Australian stocks were relatively listless with the ASX200 falling about 0.15% to close at 7399 points as the Australian dollar is still going nowhere, floating along just above the 72 level after previously making a new weekly and monthly low:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are moderately rising going into the London open with momentum still oversold but possibly inverting here with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing price stabilizing after briefly touching the previous weekly low:

The economic calendar is US centric overnight with the latest durable goods orders, 2Q GDP estimate and core inflation price index results.

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Comments

  1. C'est de la folieMEMBER

    For anyone wondering…….

    Is my workplace’s diversity push discriminating against me?
    By Dr Kirstin Ferguson
    November 24, 2021 — 5.00am

    https://www.theage.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/is-my-workplace-s-diversity-push-discriminating-against-me-20211123-p59b8w.html

    I have reached a stage in life where I can no longer reconcile in my mind the relentless bombardment of promoting diversity by my employer. I am all for the genuine promotion and actions to remove discrimination of any sort anywhere in society. This is different. My employer is using the phrase as a subterfuge to only promote women and has set targets of 50:50 parity in senior management and in operational ranks. Every day we are bombarded with literature to achieve this under the name of “diversity”. How do I continue knowing the only way to meet the targets is through me discriminating myself?

    …and the answer is to ask yourself how you didn’t realise you were discriminatory too. But it isn’t happening to you.

    I have to admit that my initial response as I read your letter was to feel a little cranky. I am an advocate for diversity (in all forms) and so I applaud any employer wanting to foster a more diverse workforce within its ranks.
    However, I am also grateful you have shared your concerns. I can imagine it is not easy to talk about this openly at work and other men may feel the same way you do which is an issue for employers to tackle if we are ever to see true gender equality at work.
    The best way, I think, to answer the specific matter you have asked about is to invite you to think about your question differently. Rather than asking how you can meet new gender targets without discriminating (presumably against men) in the future, what if you were to ask yourself instead: how was it that I didn’t realise I may have been, even inadvertently, discriminating (against women or others) until now? Maybe ask if that could be possible and if so, what blind spots you may have which you can look out for in the future. Doing so would seem to also fit with your stated goal for genuine promotions and actions to remove discrimination anywhere in society.
    You might also like to take a look at an excellent report by Chief Executive Women called “Backlash and Buy-In”. It recognises that views like yours need to be recognised, understood and addressed to overcome resistance to change.

    Of course anyone working in a public sector environment or University where it is highly likely 50:50 is for dreamers, and the day to day reality may be ¾ to ¼ even thinking this may be enough for another mindfulness session

    • “how was it that I didn’t realise I may have been, even inadvertently, discriminating (against women or others) until now?” = “If we say that we have no sin, we deceive ourselves, and the truth is not in us”
      and don’t get me started on climate.

    • I’m so over quotas. In IT (s/w development) there are very few woman. I have found that woman in general just aren’t interested in s/w development, not all, but most. I have worked with some very talented female developers so some are more that capable and interested but to force a 50/50 quota is just stupid and is discrimination.
      In a previous request for candidates for a s/w developer position our HR department sent us 12 CVS – all woman and all Indian (just pure discrimination).

    • Absolute BeachMEMBER

      I thought that was a hoot. Not sure of I should feel guilt for ROFling whilst reading. To be frank, as a marketer, I am just seeing the most amazing opportunity to exploit this zeitgeisty phenomenon. I have already been summoned before AdStandards because I had the audacity to use the word BLOKE when naming the class of likely buyers of my products. I am now certain that I can massively leverage my marketing budget by poking this obviously oversensitive group of folk. Just think of the free PR. I bet I can get a mention on The Drum AND Gruen. Now I think about it, I reckon there could be protest marching if I get the script just so. Why other advertisers haven’t done it already is remarkable.

  2. POLITICAL JOURNALISTS

    Dan Andrews

    Do you like being in CONTROL and RELEVENT

    Do you think the general population perhaps thinks you act in a CRUEL and CAPRICIOUS manner

    Do you perhaps think the strategy has not worked with the JIHAD against the unvaccinated.

    What do you think the general population think when you impose your jihad on children, and then straight away back down when you think parents would absolutely kick the ship out of you

    Maybe you have sent very clear signals on who you are to the community. Suddenly you have gone silent on bashing the unvaccinated for all of 2022

    That sends a very strong signal in itself. My ongoing position over the last month remains unchanged (go back and read earlier blogs). The unvaccinated will be out in non essential retail by Xmas 2021, my guess no later than 15 or 16 December. Otherwise you will screw EVERYONE’S xmas plans up (we are all inter connected). And after a terrible two years you will absolutely cop it at the election. NO MERCY

    As I have said many times I dare you to keep bashing the unvaccinated.

    You have awoken moral indignation, Unfortunately for you perhaps it is not between the vaccinated and unvaccinated anymore and instead it is spotlighted on you hehehe

    And threatening people’s jobs and ability to survive if unvaccinated. Fantastic. Talk about becoming RELEVANT and being in everyone’s discussions. MORAL INDIGNITY and all that hehehe

    Victoria is so TOXIC it appears that nobody supports you anymore….where is Albanese or anyone else saying Dan is doing a great job in bashing the unvaccinated…..perottett and Matthew Guy looks like great guys now. NO MERCY

    Perhaps you need cover to let the unvaccinated out in December and perhaps this article provides it. THIS FEELS LIKE A MASSIVE SIGNAL IS BEING SENT but who knows. Well known Medical experts saying yeh nah gotta let people out say December (my calculations based on their comments) and you can say I HAVE LISTENED TO THE WELL KNOWN HEALTH EXPERTS AND I AM LETTING UNVACCINATED OUT in December. But who knows

    Otherwise it may radicalize people to become Bill McHarg types (think john howard detractors on a large industrial scale) using Edward Bernays propaganda teachings in a peaceful manner but designed to maximize outcome hehehe

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/giving-vaccination-a-bad-name-experts-say-jab-lockouts-can-end-at-90-percent-20211122-p59b4t.html

          • i say andrews backs away december with his jihad on the unvaccinated and lets them back into non essential retail, what do you say. this is only question i am interested in from you (assuming you are a labor shill), please send me a signal on this question hehehe

      • minority is being played from a moral perspective and as you know that changes between time periods, as does legal law. a citizen only needs to obey the legal law. remember all progress depends on the unreasonable man (as long as he acts in a legal manner). and remember the social contract in democrarcy about freedom. but this discussion is totally irrelevant.

        all that is relevant is when will andrews stop bashing the unvaccinated and let them back out into non essential retail. lets talk about this and not drag off into moral issues. i say andrews backs away december, what do you say. this is only question i am interested in from you, please send me a signal on this question hehehe

        even though i am not a nihilist lets just pretend i am so that you dont go down the whole moral path debate

  3. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    New Zealand …

    Reserve Bank lifts OCR to 0.75% and now sees peak of 2.6% in 2024 … David Hargreaves … Interest Co NZ

    https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/113343/reserve-bank-has-met-market-expectations-25-basis-point-move-ocr-and-forecasting

    Tough new lending environment hits home loan borrowers … Miriam Bell … Stuff NZ

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/127074578/tough-new-lending-environment-hits-home-loan-borrowers

    First-home buyers are stepping back from the market as it becomes harder to get a mortgage, a new survey reveals.

    ANZ became the latest bank to push pause on low deposit loans Tuesday, after BNZ and Kiwibank did the same last week.

    This, along with rising mortgage rates and looming changes to the Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act (CCCFA), which will make it harder to get a loan, have altered the lending environment.

    Economist Tony Alexander’s latest survey of mortgage advisers showed the number of first-home buyers looking for advice has dropped to a new low. … read more via hyperlink above …

    Tony Alexander: Why the Reserve Bank’s decision on interest rates doesn’t really matter … One Roof / New Zealand Herald

    https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/40554

    Third, from December 1, banks have to meet the new, far more stringent requirements of the Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act (CCCFA). They have to be able to prove that they have fully assessed all expenses of loan applicants and the stability and longevity of all income sources which will be used to support a loan. …

    … concluding …

    … As people come to realise the effect of these new credit restrictions, FOMO will start to ease. Then 2022 will arrive with loss of Kiwis offshore, increasing house supply, plus even higher interest rates. The coming year for housing will look quite different to this one.

    … with housing currently hopelessly unaffordable …

    NZ Metros Median Multiples … Interest Co NZ

    https://www.interest.co.nz/property/house-price-income-multiples

  4. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    China …

    Jamie Dimon Says JPMorgan Is Likely to Outlast China’s Communist Party … Hannah Levitt … Bloomberg

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-23/dimon-says-jpmorgan-is-likely-to-outlast-china-s-communist-party?srnd=premium-asia

    JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon quipped that his bank is likely to outlast China’s Communist Party, while reiterating his company’s commitment to the country in wide-ranging comments that touched on Taiwan, free speech and Donald Trump.

    “We hope to be there for a long time,” Dimon said of China while speaking Tuesday at a panel discussion at the Boston College Chief Executives Club. He relayed a “joke” he made during a recent visit to Hong Kong: “The Communist Party is celebrating its 100th year. So is JPMorgan. And I’ll make you a bet we last longer.”

    JPMorgan has been operating in China since 1921, the same year the Communist Party was founded there. Dimon said he wouldn’t be able to joke about outlasting the party if he were in China, but added that officials there were probably listening to his remarks in Boston anyway.

    Dimon, one of the longest serving and most outspoken CEOs on Wall Street, also said he doesn’t know anyone who “thinks that something’s gonna go wrong in Taiwan,” saying the current tensions amounted to “saber rattling.” He warned that a Chinese intervention in Taiwan “could be their Vietnam.” … read more via hyperlink above …

  5. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Cricket update.

    In the bat-off for the number five spot in the Ashes team today in Adelaide, Usman Koala scored four and Travesty Head scored eight.

    Selectors left frustrated.

  6. Jumping jack flash

    Anyone who may be wondering, as I was, why there seems to be such an urgency that the entire world is vaccinated with specifically mRNA vaccines, above any other type, without there being any enormous advantage or increased efficacy over more traditional vaccines, in fact they are much more troublesome in a lot of aspects, well, this may hold some answers.

    I have also watched the full video, it isnt too hard to locate with a quick google.

    https://youtu.be/KsCwPfsb7C4

    • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

      Well der. It’s because that’s the only way to get a better 5G signal.

      Or because fewer people die with vaccines that all happen to have that in common.

      Sorry, it’s been a long day so I can’t remember which of those it is. Might be both actually.

      • Jumping jack flash

        Im not saying anything about the 5G nutters, and im not even going on about the obvious coincidence with what is happening now and what they’re talking about in 2019. All im saying is that they were discussing what it would take to introduce new vaccine technology in a hurry, and they obviously took their opportunity to do so, with the belief their new tech was far superior than traditional methods.

    • Jumping jack flash

      The full video is very informative and i recommend it.

      These guys are the global authority on flu vaccines and i’d always believed that the (Northern Hemishpere) flu vaccine was about 40% effective. How wrong i was. These guys admit that it is around 23% and varies considerably depending on which one you get. And thats presumably the NH one. The SH flu vaccine variant is traditionally less effective than the NH.

    • Jumping jack flash

      Greedy corporate upper tiers needing all that debt capacity!

      I saw some mention of wage regulation in the US but it wasn’t in a favourable light. They were discussing that they shouldn’t need to regulate wages like they did supposedly in the 70s, i dont know, i wasn’t alive then. However, it is a real possibility, probably not an ideal one, but a possibility.

      The people need the higher wages to spend and consume, and most importantly, buy more debt.

      • OK firstly JJF you have this propensity to couch everything in an ill defined nomenclature of Debt[tm], look debt is not a monolith nor is it akin to slavery. No matter what token is used to symbolize, firstly sovereign money and even informal money, they all are forms of debt because at the end of the day it represents a contractual agreement. Now if you want to argue the bargaining power or the representation concurrent to the establishment of a contract, by all parties involved, then we might discuss the pros or cons of said debt.

        Ref: wage regulation – its a huge point of contention for all involved because of above and the dynamics that surround it e.g. power makes laws. Even know people that have spent entire lives in economics lose good friends [decades] over it. For myself I grow hair on my back teeth when some say the labour market, please someone show me 24mo of a market dynamics with this mythological beast, at the same time the more appropriate term is used e.g. a labour pool. Two totally distinct terms of reference and meaning. Hence why I support a JG to set a living wage floor for labour, get rid of NAIRU, and then let the market do its thing. So at the end of the day I guess I’m saying, I’m not sure the idea of setting a minimum wage is the best policy due to complexities, but offering a JG for building skills [payed TAFE] or a means to transition between employers or skill sets, over ones life productive time is a better social/market outcome and might unleash even more productivity or potential.

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