Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

The mixed start to the trading week for Asian stock markets continued with a lack of direction quite evident as Chinese bourses continued to diverge, Japanese markets were closed while local shares bounced back sharply. The USD remains very strong against the major currency pairs with Euro looking dire indeed while gold is frantically trying to hold on to support after getting shot in the knees overnight, pushed all the way down to the $1800USD per ounce level. The four hourly chart does exhibit a classic bullish falling wedge pattern, although its quite steep:

Chinese shares are diverging again with the Shanghai Composite closing 0.3% higher at 3589 points while the Hang Seng Index is still going the other way, falling over 1% to close at 24681 points. Japanese markets were closed while the light volume has seen the USDJPY pair pushed back above the 115 handle for the first time since 2016!

Australian stocks snapped back after a very poor start to the trading week with the ASX200 0.8% to close back above the 7400 point level at 7410 points as the Australian dollar is still going nowhere but down, sitting right on the 72 level after previously making a new weekly and monthly low:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are falling sharply going into the London open with momentum inverting almost completely after the Powell nomination volatility pushed it over last night, with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing price almost back at the previous weekly low:

The economic calendar ramps up with a slew of flash manufacturing/services PMIs across Europe and US tonight.

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Comments

  1. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Divide and conquer.
    Factions cemented in opposition.
    Becoming polarized.
    Bitterness.
    Pro vax ,V antivax and freedom of choice sprinkled on both sides

    • NoodlesRomanovMEMBER

      Thanks Boom – I did see the advice, really appreciated. When I asked, I hadn’t finished digging out around the fitting. I’d dug down far enough to find the hole in the pipe and could see it changed direction 90 degrees so assumed it was an elbow. When I uncovered it properly it turned out to be a mitre joint! Now that I can’t trust the workmanship of the previous idiot at all, I’m going to replace the whole underground section. It’s only about 2m to a bigger main drain that it hopefully ties into (never know though!), but a way bigger job than it first looked and it is p1ssing down up here.

      • Haha, I’m messing with something called Lightning Node and figuring out how to move funds between wallets etc..what is interesting is people can take control of the flow of money. No need for a bank inbetween. Interesting times ahead.

        I think people get caught up in all the crypto scams and don’t see the tech behind it and how it works. I can see what El Salvadore is doing as a stepping stone to greater things..

        • NoodlesRomanovMEMBER

          Gav – why would transfer between wallets be an innovation or be news? Isn’t it just another transaction? Aren’t all transactions meant to be recorded on the block and inherently without 3rd party handling? Sorry if this is the dumbest question but I thought that was a central premise of bc.

          • I’m still getting my head around half of this stuff. But a friend set up his own server to accept payments etc.. and we are testing it out. It’s a fairly involved process.

  2. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    United States …

    Holiday travel back to 2019 levels at 2 million people a day … Yahoo Finance

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/holiday-travel-back-to-2019-levels-at-2-million-people-a-day-174507473.html

    The latest numbers from the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) show Thanksgiving holiday travel is almost equal to the numbers seen just before the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019. TSA estimates 20 million passengers will fly between November 19 and November 28, about 2 million people every day.

    Delta Air Lines (DAL) says U.S. leisure travel has fully recovered to 2019 levels and expects to fly 5.6 million people. “The Sunday after Thanksgiving Day could be a post-downturn record-setter: 550,000 Delta customers are expected to travel that day, well over the previous single-day, post-downturn record of 516,000 set this summer,” the airline stated. … view and read more via hyperlink above …

    • Hugh PavletichMEMBER

      Tough new lending environment hits home loan borrowers … Miriam Bell … Stuff NZ

      https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/127074578/tough-new-lending-environment-hits-home-loan-borrowers

      First-home buyers are stepping back from the market as it becomes harder to get a mortgage, a new survey reveals.

      ANZ became the latest bank to push pause on low deposit loans Tuesday, after BNZ and Kiwibank did the same last week.

      This, along with rising mortgage rates and looming changes to the Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act (CCCFA), which will make it harder to get a loan, have altered the lending environment.

      Economist Tony Alexander’s latest survey of mortgage advisers showed the number of first-home buyers looking for advice has dropped to a new low. … read more via hyperlink above …

      • Hugh PavletichMEMBER

        Tony Alexander: Why the Reserve Bank’s decision on interest rates doesn’t really matter … One Roof / New Zealand Herald

        https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/40554

        Third, from December 1, banks have to meet the new, far more stringent requirements of the Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act (CCCFA). They have to be able to prove that they have fully assessed all expenses of loan applicants and the stability and longevity of all income sources which will be used to support a loan. …

        … concluding …

        … As people come to realise the effect of these new credit restrictions, FOMO will start to ease. Then 2022 will arrive with loss of Kiwis offshore, increasing house supply, plus even higher interest rates. The coming year for housing will look quite different to this one.

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