Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

An uneasy start to the trading week for Asian stock markets as Chinese bourses continued to diverge in fortune, Japanese markets tread water while local shares continue to slump. The USD is holding strong against the major currency pairs with Euro looking to put in more monthly lows while gold is trying to hold on to support at the $1850USD per ounce level. Meanwhile Bitcoin has seen some big volatility coming out of the gates with a surge towards the $60K level before getting slammed down to the $57K, all before lunch:

Chinese shares are diverging again with the Shanghai Composite up nearly 0.6% going into the close, currently at 3579 points while the Hang Seng Index has gone the other way, falling 0.6% to be at 24907 points. Japanese markets are steadying here somewhat with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.1% higher at 29780 points while the USDJPY pair is slowly clawing its way back with a little peekaboo above the 114 level:

Australian stocks are feeling the psychological pressure of not getting back above previous support with the ASX200 falling over 0.6% to close at 7353 points as the Australian dollar goes nowhere but at least its not making new lows, currently right on the mid 72 level after previously making a new weekly and monthly low:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are relatively flat going into the London open with momentum about to push into the overbought zone for the S&P500, as the four hourly chart shows price ready  to climb back above the recent highs at the 4700 point level:

The economic calendar starts the week fairly quietly with US existing home sales data the only event of note.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


  1. The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

    Days turned around and pass by like a quick train
    And it’s Monday as we have Macro Afternoon again
    Thank you Chris as many times as there’s rain

  2. Something for those that view a public health event from divisiveness …

    COVID-19: stigmatising the unvaccinated is not justified

    Günter Kampf

    Published:November 20, 2021DOI:
    COVID-19: stigmatising the unvaccinated is not justified

    In the USA and Germany, high-level officials have used the term pandemic of the unvaccinated, suggesting that people who have been vaccinated are not relevant in the epidemiology of COVID-19. Officials’ use of this phrase might have encouraged one scientist to claim that “the unvaccinated threaten the vaccinated for COVID-19”.1

    But this view is far too simple.

    There is increasing evidence that vaccinated individuals continue to have a relevant role in transmission. In Massachusetts, USA, a total of 469 new COVID-19 cases were detected during various events in July, 2021, and 346 (74%) of these cases were in people who were fully or partly vaccinated, 274 (79%) of whom were symptomatic. Cycle threshold values were similarly low between people who were fully vaccinated (median 22·8) and people who were unvaccinated, not fully vaccinated, or whose vaccination status was unknown (median 21·5), indicating a high viral load even among people who were fully vaccinated.2
    In the USA, a total of 10 262 COVID-19 cases were reported in vaccinated people by April 30, 2021, of whom 2725 (26·6%) were asymptomatic, 995 (9·7%) were hospitalised, and 160 (1·6%) died.3
    In Germany, 55·4% of symptomatic COVID-19 cases in patients aged 60 years or older were in fully vaccinated individuals,4
    and this proportion is increasing each week. In Münster, Germany, new cases of COVID-19 occurred in at least 85 (22%) of 380 people who were fully vaccinated or who had recovered from COVID-19 and who attended a nightclub.5
    People who are vaccinated have a lower risk of severe disease but are still a relevant part of the pandemic. It is therefore wrong and dangerous to speak of a pandemic of the unvaccinated. Historically, both the USA and Germany have engendered negative experiences by stigmatising parts of the population for their skin colour or religion. I call on high-level officials and scientists to stop the inappropriate stigmatisation of unvaccinated people, who include our patients, colleagues, and other fellow citizens, and to put extra effort into bringing society together.

  3. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    New Zealand’s housing bubble … like a rubber band, it’s the (pricing and mirror lending) ‘multiple stretch’ that’s the problem … normal housing markets are at or below 3.0 …

    … From ’06 Ireland’s metros went from 4.7 Median Multiple to 2.8. Currently New Zealand is about 9.0 Median Multiple overall …

    … BNZ economists … at least falling house prices … possibility of larger correction …

    BNZ economists anticipate ongoing interest rate increases and constrained household spending; a recession is ‘possible’ but not their ‘central scenario’ barring an external shock … David Hargreaves … Interest Co NZ

    BNZ economists are now forecasting ‘modest’ falls in house prices but say a “large correction” can’t be ruled out.

    The economists also anticipate ongoing interest rate increases, constrained household spending and, “while a recession is possible it is not our central scenario, barring an external shock”.

    The BNZ economists join Westpac economists and prior to that the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) in forecasting outright falls in house prices. Other economists have forecast sharp falls in house price inflation from next year, but with house price growth on an annual basis just remaining positive. ANZ economists for example last week said they expected a few months of falling prices next year but the market would have a “soft landing”. … read more via hyperlink above …

    Following ASB and Westpac, ANZ as the largest home loan lender raises its carded offers, pushing some rates to new higher territory. One year rates now have a 70 bps advantage … David Chaston … Interest Co NZ

    Market conditions for Mum & Dad residential housing investors have changed and the future looks tough for them as a series of regulatory changes take an increasing toll on their cash flows … David Chaston … Interest Co NZ

    NZ Metros Median Multiples … Interest Co NZ

  4. NoodlesRomanovMEMBER

    Shout out to Ermo – free advice needed.
    Patio pavers were starting to sink – lifted them to see what the issue was, there is a rainwater downpipe elbow that some peanut has cut a 2.5″ hole in presumably to rod out. “Repair” was a random piece of pvc jammed on with a fistful of sealant and has surprisingly come off.
    Are there such beasts as elbow repair kits or am I looking at cutting the whole thing out and doing it properly? I know the answer in my heart but this is a hail mary to see if there is an alternative.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Of course cut out and redo is best but if you want you could get another elbow, cut a section off to match the hole area overlapping for seal and securing. Get the proper PVC glue/cement ( green is good) put a clamp fixed jaw end under the elbow, then ample glue on both surfaces with clamp squeeze the part spreading the cut patch peice into shape as the inside diameter of patch is smaller than the outside diam of existing . Leave until cured.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Apologies to Ermo for butting in.
            He may have some elaboration.
            Make sure all silastic/ sealant is removed and all areas of patch contact is very clean and dry before glue applications s 20mm overlap minimum, 25 to 30mm maximum.

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          Next time if there is a choke you could cut it out completely and install an elbow with a side access plug.. This time cutting an elbow to patch with an access wouldn’t stretch to shape very well so continue as per above my first post fix.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Bunnings may have premade patches ( with or without access plug) but probably not for your elbpw applicable fix, but you could always ask.

    • NoodlesRomanovMEMBER

      Conscience got the better of me when I saw the price of the fittings – junction, threaded insert and cap all for less than $10. Got some digging ahead of me tomorrow.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Great stuff Noodles, go for it..
        Btw hardly any pressure on stormwater so the blue glue would Do if you are going to put a whole new elbow in. The green was needed for a stronger holding of patch.

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          Keep in mind that when you cut off the old elbow you are cutting off the pipe that fits inside it. Meaning you either have to get a longer elbow than the old one or two short pipes and straight joiners to make up the distance. You may be lucky to be able to pull the pipe closer if no joins, elbows, flanges or endings are further up but doubt that scenario.
          Another unlikely remedy for the shortened pipe would be to dig out much more and bend the two pipes closer from the right angle , providing you had room inside the right angle. This never looks very professional and you must chock the pipes while glue is setting.

          • To my surprise I understood what you are talking about.

            Just cut it off at the joins and then bend the pipes to fit the new elbow with a sh!load of glue,

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Another’ alternative would be to use internal/external reducing fittings (bushes) into the new elbow.

  5. The corporate class, the politicians that they fund, and the media that they own are currently using rising prices to ram an inflation panic down our throats and prevent the Democrats from passing any legislation that will help the American people with their health care, child care, elderly care or education costs. They are falsely using economic trends to argue against popular and necessary policies that they always fight against because those policies might cut into their profits.

    To help me untangle the lies around the inflation panic and the so-called “labor shortage,” I asked the brilliant economist Stephanie Kelton to join me on Rumble with Michael Moore. We also discussed why it is foolish for Democrats to place the fate of their agenda in the hands of the Congressional Budget Office, what’s really going on with the economy, and how capitalists attempt to keep a pool of workers chronically unemployed and underemployed and desperate for work. – snip

  6. Just think PHON could have used her power not to pass any govt legislation to force immigration down to below 100k yet the govt announced they are throwing the gates open to “skilled migrants” and students. She chooses to focus on using that threat for vaccines.
    It is all theatre – she knows if she pretends to not want immigration and does nothing about it more people will eventually vote for her thinking she may actually do something. It actually works really well for her politically to have unsustainably high immigration and more people annoyed about it.

    • Jumping jack flash

      Probably not, as delicious as it sounds it is more likely that different genotypes are simply naturally more susceptible to it.

      The only thing i can think of is whoever developed it was testing its effectiveness on their own tissues so it was “accidentally” developed to target their own genotype better than others’.

      More research is definitely required around why some people have bad reactions to corona and die, and others are asymptomatic, and whether those who have bad reactions are more susceptible to vaccination adverse reactions. But nobody is all that interested in performing that research now we have the magical “vaccines of hope” and everyone is being open slather forced to have them.

  7. ScoMo is seriously unhinged. He straight up lied in QT and said he told Albo that he was going to Hawaii and when Albo calls him out, he ‘”clarifies” by saying that he didn’t tell Albo where he was going, but just that he was going on holidays.

    FFS – if this is a strategy, damned if I can see the point of it. The c$%t fecked off to another country while his own was burning. That should be the story.

    • FFS – if this is a strategy, damned if I can see the point of it.

      A great deal of work is put into creating a public perception that all politicians are as bad as each other.

      IMHO This is a game of chicken so some counter-examples can be rolled out to try and reinforce that perception.

      Ie: “B-b-b-b-but LABOR !”

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