Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

A generally dour day for Asian stock markets following a very bullish session on overnight markets with the burgeoning USD and increased concerns about the Chinese property market weighing on risk markets. The USD continues to gain against nearly everything, with the Euro cracking below the 1.13 handle and pushing the Australian dollar to new lows as gold held fast at the $1850USD per ounce level. Meanwhile crypto land is acting a bit cray cray, with Bitcoin falling through the $60K level taking it back to its previous weekly lows:

Chinese shares are quite mixed with the Shanghai Composite up 0.3% going into close, currently at 3532 points while the Hang Seng Index is giving up some of its previous gains to be down 0.4% at 25600 points. Japanese markets are slowly losing direction, with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.3% lower at 29719 points even as the USDJPY pair makes a new high to almost cross the 115 level:

Australian stocks were unable to take the “good” wages data in its stride with more falls today, the ASX200 closing 0.7% lower at 7369 points even as the Australian dollar accelerates its rollover from the failed swing start to the week, heading well below the 73 handle for a new weekly and monthly low:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are holding on to their overnight gains although there is a lack of momentum going on,  as the four hourly chart of the S&P500 shows price pausing here below the recent highs at the 4700 point level:

The economic calendar continues with UK and EZ core inflation prints for October and then a huge line up of Fed and ECB speeches that will keep the algos happy overnight.

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Comments

  1. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    New Zealand: Accelerating dispersal and decentralisation …

    … What lessons are being learnt from Selwyn County ? …

    Benje Patterson says a legacy of Covid-19 may be some permanent changes to the way we work and where we choose to live … Interest Co NZ

    https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/113249/benje-patterson-says-legacy-covid-19-may-be-some-permanent-changes-way-we-work

    People are leaving Auckland in their droves and making a life for themselves in the regions. You have probably already heard this line bandied about by friends, but data recently released by Statistics New Zealand has confirmed that this is no urban myth.

    Over the June 2021 year, Auckland lost a net 13,500 people to other parts of New Zealand, following net internal migration losses of 11,400 and 11,100 people in 2019 and 2020 respectively.

    These results are consistent with a trend that I identified in research a couple of years ago where I looked at Auckland’s emerging population exodus to the regions. My research found that the exodus of Aucklanders to the regions had accelerated from a net 2,727 people in 2014 to 12,942 people in 2017.

    Where are people heading? … read more via hyperlink above …

    Selwyn soars as property prices rise 33 per cent in a year … Nadine Porter … Stuff NZ

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/126844067/selwyn-soars-as-property-prices-rise-33-per-cent-in-a-year

    Building consents issued: September 2021 … Statistics New Zealand

    https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/building-consents-issued-september-2021

    Key facts

    • In the year ended September 2021, the actual number of new dwellings consented was 47,331, up 25 percent from the September 2020 year.
    • In the year ended September 2021, the number of new dwellings consented per 1,000 residents was 9.3, compared with 7.4 in the September 2020 year.
    • So far during 2021 Selwyn County consent rate per 1000 residents per annum 26.4.

    … University of Sydney Professor of Transport Studies David Levinson discusses covid accelerated dispersal and de – centralization …

    David Levinson … The New New Normal … The Transportist

    https://transportist.org/2020/11/03/the-new-new-normal-mobility-and-activity-in-the-after-times/

    … Do you intend to progress with these inevitable changes … or resist and get rolled and ruined by them ? …

    • Hugh PavletichMEMBER

      USA …

      How Tulsa Lured 1,200 Remote Workers to Move … Sarah Holder … Bloomberg

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-16/tulsa-offers-lessons-in-remote-worker-migration

      A program that pays telecommuters to relocate has grown exponentially over the past three years, a new analysis finds. …

      … concluding …

      … Schemes like Tulsa’s have been replicated in varying forms in cities across the U.S., from Savannah, Georgia, to Topeka, Kansas. Evan Hock, the co-founder of the website MakeMyMove, which hosts listing of such programs and helps them recruit members, says there were 20 programs in the U.S. when the company first launched in December 2020. Today, there are more than 50. Many of them include cash incentives like Tulsa, but Hock says the real competitive advantage comes in emphasizing local features they may not be able to find in bigger cities, and the promise of intentional community-building. For example, in Greensburg, Indiana, the $7,000 incentive includes a free YMCA membership, periodical at-home meal-delivery — and a program called Grandparents on Demand that connects newcomers with an older couple in town who are eager to babysit.

      “As we add more programs to the site, demand actually increases,” Hock said. Before the pandemic, “people had been kind of shackled to major metros. For the first time ever, they’re free to vote with their feet.”

  2. C'est de la folieMEMBER

    It’s your ABC’s turn to try and load a spoonful of pro population Ponzi gruel into your consciousness.

    That serving is intellectually insipid, bereft of traction on the lived experience of everyday Australians, and dismissive of their experiences, and ultimately there to serve as a fig leaf by the social progressive world to cover the pernicious economic ideology of a government looking first and foremost for its ticket clipping mates …..

    Let’s see just how bad it can get…..

    As migration restarts, will it hold down wages for everyone?

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-16/as-migration-restarts-does-it-hold-down-wages-for-everyone-/100620538

    By business reporters Daniel Ziffer and Samuel Yang

    Posted 3h ago3 hours ago, updated 1h ago

    Does mass migration push wages growth lower for everyone?

    It seems a simple case of supply and demand: having more of something compared to how much is wanted keeps prices low.

    For example, if there are lots of fully stocked shops next to each other at the beach, one can’t charge markedly higher prices for the same kind of ice cream.

    But when COVID-19 forced Australia to shut international borders, it started a test that might kill off the applicability of that basic economic concept when it comes to people.

    That is a pretty straightforward play from the tee.  Basic economics 101.  The experience of incomes rising since the advent of Covid following on from the shutting off of the population Ponzi fits hand in glove with that.  This article will really need to polish some bullshido to get hold of readers from here.

    “It’s great to have this natural experiment, to show people that these things aren’t as straightforward as supply and demand,” said Gabriela D’Souza, senior economist at the Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA).

    A nice quote from Gabriela D’Souza, but it adds nowt to the lede and relates nothing to how any experiment anywhere is taking us away from economics 101. 

    As the pandemic hit, our population fell for the first time in a century.

    Since the borders shut in March last year, more than 500,000 temporary migrants have left the country, according to a report by a parliamentary committee on migration.

    With the same amount of work to be done, the laws of supply and demand mean wages should have rocketed as employers used higher wages to compete for a much smaller pool of workers.

    So Gabriela and the writers of this piece are contending that unless incomes ‘skyrocket’ economics 101 goes out the window.  Someone needs to explain to Gabriela and the writers that the economy went into the pike position due to lockdowns and people being warned not to attend crowded locations like restaurants and sports events.  As Gabriela (Bachelor of Applied Economics, Canberra and Master of Economics, Monash) should know, there hasn’t by any stretch of the imagination been the same amount of work to be done and that is well before we start to look at what sort of work has actually been done and who has been doing it, and what the response of employers (with their frame of view distorted by the effect of JobKeeper taking us away from economics 101) has been.

    But Ms D’Souza has found in her research that a person can’t be treated in the same way as an object like an ice cream.

    “Workers are not exactly like goods,” she explained.

    “Workers also consume products and services in the market and so that’s part of the reason why we see these impacts come about, that there’s no discernible impact on wages because we also see them contributing to the spending in an economy.”

    The first turd on the plate is right there.  Sure migrants consume.  But as Gabriela would know if their consumption is funded by their local endeavours – be they services provided or goods produced – then their consumption comes at the cost of consumption which may otherwise have been undertaken by local providers or producers.

    In Australia’s case, seeing as we produce sweet FA, that consumption tends to revolve around standard retail, housing, transport, medical services, and educational services – none of which add to Australia’s economic position and are yet another investment in the bubble we live within.  That bubble with a floor provided by the extra demand under grocery prices, competition for houses to rent or buy, crowded infrastructure etc etc – which all provides an additional margin support for those providing those services and a floor under prices overall.

    When Gabriela says ‘there’s no discernible impact on wages because we also see them contributing to the spending in an economy’ she is talking out of her backside.  She is implying that the additional supply in the labour market is in some way offset by (and equal to) the additional demand created in goods and service markets.  Pure horseshit.  The extent to which there is additional employment is framed by an employers profit maximising expectations, and if employers can have additional employment without growing wages then that will ordinarily be the approach they take – particularly in Australia’s heavily casualised and temporised labour markets.  Even if there is additional demand (which there is) it is not demand which couldn’t be met without additional employment or hours, let alone growing incomes for existing employees which brings us back to the new labour suppressing the incomes of existing labour

    Earn, consume, make a home

    With her husband and children, Colombian migrant Monica Hernández Mattos arrived in Adelaide 12 years ago as part of the skilled migrant program.

    She worked in jobs not linked to her qualification as a psychologist – cleaning, hospitality, fruit picking – for three years as she improved her English skills and adjusted to Australia.

    “I get the point when people will say, ‘Aha! They are taking our jobs!'” she said.

    “But I don’t see that it is like that, I think we just work like in a team with other communities: bringing new skills, bringing new experiences, new languages as well.”

    Ms Mattos is now working in the Victorian public service and using her international qualifications.

    Her family has built a life in Australia and they now work in increasingly complex, better-paid jobs and have started new businesses.

    “We’re coming here to contribute to the community. We’re not having the intention to take any jobs from anyone and I think there is enough room for everyone.”

    That is a lovely story and I am very happy for Ms Mattos, but the simple fact of the matter is that if she came here on a skilled migration program then the first question which arises is ‘why was she working in jobs not linked to her qualifications?’  The skilled migration program is supposed to source specialised skills in demand by Australian employers which aren’t readily available or quickly developable in Australian educational institutions amongst Australians.  It is not to get well educated desperadoes to come to Australia to work in labouring roles while adding to infrastructure demand.  One would also be inclined to ask why people coming to Australia on skilled visa need to practice their English if they are not working in the specialised field requiring they be issued with a skills visa.

    Ms Mattos may be a superb psychologist but she is hardly qualified to make an appraisal on whether migrants take locals jobs or not.  While I am sure she brings new experiences, new languages (seeing as she apparently has issues with English) and new skills (which is interesting seeing as Australia graduates thousands of psychologists each year who seem to have issues finding work in the field) she is here to work as a psychologist IF there are insufficient psychologists about (which I genuinely doubt).  Finally if she is now working inside the Victorian public sector one assumes that this was not the sponsor of her skills visa – the entire generation of a  skills visa needs to be questioned from about there.

    Overseas worker ‘tap’ turned off

    By aggressively importing workers – a 10th of Australia’s population had arrived in the decade before the pandemic began – the nation massively boosted the number of working-age people.

    Over the same period, wage growth has been pathetic, meaning the purchasing power of wage earners has been stagnating, despite headline economic growth.

    In a speech in July, Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe said the ability of Australia’s employers to “tap” global labour markets for foreign workers may have permanently changed wage dynamics in Australia.

    Dr Lowe said companies could hire foreign workers to overcome bottlenecks and to fill gaps where workers were in short supply. This had helped businesses operate efficiently, particularly during the resources boom.

    But the ability to get foreign workers from overseas “dilutes” growth or “upward pressure” on wages in some parts of the economy, he conceded.

    He said it was possible there were “spillovers” into the rest of the labour market and that the pool of talent meant less momentum for businesses to skill up people here.

    “This hiring can also dilute the incentive for businesses to train workers to do the required job,” Dr Lowe said.

    The above stanza rips away any sense of the population Ponzi not nailing incomes growth to the floor.  Ten percent of the Australian workforce has recently migrated, massively boosting the number of working people.  This is beyond any growth in demand for these people as employees, and this has consequently nailed incomes growth to the floor.  No surprise all round.

    The only real surprise is that it took the RBA ten years to acknowledge this fact.  They have now done so – falling into line with what David and Leith and others have been stating at Macrobusiness for more than a decade.

    Research says no

    While there are some caveats about areas of exploitation and a concentration of migration in certain skilled professions depressing wages for locals, much research doesn’t back a general view that migrants are keeping wages lower.

    “That [impact] certainly might be the case in certain occupations,” Ms D’Souza said, but added that overall the impact is nothing.

    “On aggregate, we just find that it’s basically a wash.”

    One of the winners of this year’s Nobel Prize for Economics was David Card, whose work has consistently upended conventional wisdom.

    His most influential, and controversial, work disputed the previously widely accepted idea that increases in the minimum wage lead to job losses

    That work has been used by the Biden administration to push for a $15 minimum wage in the US.

    But it builds on his earlier ground-breaking work about the Mariel Boatlift of 1980.

    As Cuba’s economy crashed, about 125,000 people escaped to nearby Miami in the US over a period of just six months.

    Even though it dramatically altered the Miami economy, Professor Card found wages and unemployment for Miami residents with low levels of education – those considered most likely to lose jobs or conditions because of the flood of fresh labour – didn’t change.

    That research was at odds with anti-immigrant sentiment and exploded basic economic theories of supply and demand. But more recent studies have backed it up.

    Modelling by CEDA found temporary skilled migration has been an overwhelming net positive for the Australian economy because it filled skills shortages and helped transfer new knowledge and experience to workers born in Australia.

    It’s not a case of migrants equal lower wages, according to Ms D’Souza.

    “That’s kind of a well-known fallacy in economics,” she said.

    “We’ve seen the experiment of that in COVID, and in shutting down of our borders, and what impact that has on the labour market, which has been quite negligible.”

    Next comes a stanza of complete schlock. 

    Card and the Miami boatlift is not Australia in the 21st century.  Miami has a far more diverse and vibrant economy than most places in Australia, and of course is part of a massively larger and more diverse economy which actually applies skills to service its own needs.  The United States does not live off redistributed resources and commodities income the way Australia does and has vastly cheaper labour laws, housing costs and opportunities for both migrants and locals.  Beyond all that the US does also provide ample evidence that flooding the labour market with migrants leads to deleterious incomes growth (and consequent political implications)

    The switch mid stanza to a reference to CEDA and Gabriela simply underlines how nefarious is the reference to Card and Miami – they are irrelevant to the thrust and lede of the article.  Equally as irrelevant are unbacked assertions by Gabriela and CEDA about migration filling skills shortages – what, In picking apples or stocking supermarket shelves while learning English? – or transferring skills and knowledge to Australian workers – would someone somewhere care to point to a single instance of a skills shortage of a skill which Australia does not have and which Australian education institutions couldn’t churn out in a year or so.  There is nothing in this entire spurious pabulum of drivel that goes near to identifying one.

    Gabriela may babble on about fallacies and such but offers nothing to support the idea that anything she says is anything less of a fallacy. As already mentioned the shutting down of the borders due to Covid has been accompanied by the shutting down of whole sectors of the economy, and therefore is alone absolutely no basis for asserting that the population Ponzi isn’t nailing incomes growth to the floor.

    Exploitation hurts all

    There’s one hitch to the theory.

    Certain types of visas – particularly temporary and student permits – make people more vulnerable to exploitation by employers. When the threat of deportation or punishment looms, migrants can be stuck in exploitative work and underpaid.

    This can go on to depress wages in that sector: something seen through large-scale wage theft and rip-offs in hospitality and the agricultural sector.

    Chinese migrant Xueliang Wang came to Australia in 2018 in search of a better life, instead, he said, he fell victim to workplace exploitation.

    In March 2020, he started working 11-hour shifts picking fruit on a farm on the mid-north coast of New South Wales, while living in a shipping container with his wife.

    He told the ABC he was paid less than $100 per day despite the job being advertised with a $17 hourly rate, and they had to pay $150 a week for sleeping in the steel shipping container.

    He described the working and living conditions at the farm as “very unhealthy”.

    “It’s very tiring to work 11 hours a day and I got bitten a lot by mosquitoes and insects during the summer,” the 57-year-old said.

    “It’s pure exploitation.”

    He said around 50 workers, mostly from mainland China, had to share four showers and a rusty kitchen with only four stoves. Three months after arriving he was finally fed up and quit the job.

    “A lot of them couldn’t quit because they can’t speak English and worried about finding a new job,” Mr Wang said.

    “I’m very angry, I thought Australia is an advanced country, but this shows quite the opposite. I’m angry for them as well.”

    Now we get to just how palsied the assertions by Gabriela on behalf of CEDA (which appear to be the only underpinning of this entire article) actually are.  An individual who has manifestly been suppressing incomes by precisely the base line mechanism for doing so – exploitation.   Why are fruit or vegetable pickers being imported? Producers use them precisely because they have no organisation, no language skills with which to organise with Australian labour, no comprehension of existing Australian workplace law, and no quality of life expectation comparable with ordinary Australians.  Producers use these people as their favoured employees precisely because of these attributes, and in doing so they minimise the need for those producers to improve labour conditions and income outcomes – by definition they are suppressing incomes and conditions    
     

    Where migrants depress wages

    Rampant wage theft at convenience store chain 7-Eleven led operators to repay staff – including a huge pool of migrant workers — more than $173 million.

    Examples like that inform Brendan Coates, who leads the economic policy program at independent think tank Grattan Institute

    “Where migrants’ labour rights have not been enforced, this can hurt the wages of similarly-skilled incumbent Australians employed in the same sectors,” he wrote in a report he co-authored earlier this year.

    Temporary visa holders are more at risk of exploitation than permanent visa holders because they must meet conditions – like staying employed – to remain in Australia and go on to seek a permanent visa.

    But Mr Coates sees the problem as being with the design of temporary work visas and lax enforcement of labour laws in sectors where migrant workers are concentrated.

    He agrees with Ms D’Souza that migrants don’t affect the wages of locals, on average. But “migration that is highly concentrated in sectors of the labour market can have bigger impacts on the wages of incumbents working in those sectors”.

    Meaning migrants concentrated in particular jobs or geographies will tend to reduce local workers’ wages.

    Although even that might not always be the case.

    Analysis of 1 million Australian temporary visas for high-skilled workers in a 2020 study published by Oxford University found that when a particular occupation received a lot of migrants the incomes of local workers tended to rise as they adjusted to competition by shifting to other jobs, often earning higher pay.

    The shredded reputation of Gabriela and CEDA forming the only plank of this entire spurious piece, gets backed into a corner and pummelled, and the legs turn to peanut butter – the corner throws in the towel…….. 

    Another serving of migrant exploitation (by migrants more often than not in the 7/11 instance).  Another straight out acknowledgement that migrants and spurious visa allocations knee the conditions and incomes of locals in the cojones.

    Brendan Coates (for whom I have plenty of time) doesn’t go any closer to supporting Gabriela than a comment from a year ago to the extent that there are sectors which may not have population Ponzi flooding the income and conditions prospects of locals. 

    The coup d grace comes in the form of ‘Meaning migrants concentrated in particular jobs or geographies will tend to reduce local workers’ wages.’ .  Lets call that circumstance ‘Australia in the 2010s and 2020s’

    The authors throw some burley off the side of the article in the form of a reference to oxford university – but only if the locals go and get jobs elsewhere.  Thanks guys.

    Room for all

    Cath Scarf runs AMES Australia, which does everything from meet people at the airport to run English language classes – helping around 40,000 migrants settle into Victoria each year.

    She doesn’t buy the supply and demand theory that migrants lower wages.

    “It’s simple for us to try and say ‘A equals B’, isn’t it?” she said.

    “The impact that migrants have on wages, and the economy generally is a positive one. They’re filling important skills gaps. They’re bringing obviously new consumer demand to the economy.”

    Ms Scarf said the level of commitment required to leave your family and home to move to a new country powers people to take risks and strive for a better life.

    “So they’re incredibly aspirational and entrepreneurial and they will do whatever it takes to make that journey work,” she argued.

    Ms Scarf said the experience of her staff and clients was that visa settings – such as restricting international students to a maximum of 20 hours work a week – create environments where people can be exploited.

    “So the more that we can do to ensure that people have a clear pathway to permanency, then the more likelihood we’re able to work with those groups and ensure that they’re not in precarious work,” she added.

    Next onion in the soup is an English teacher – Cath. Cath doesn’t buy supply and demand.  That doesn’t matter because Cath isn’t teaching economics, she is an English teacher.

    Cath trots of the population Ponzi spruik of skills gaps.  Migrants are aspirational and entrepreneurial.  All good one supposes but they are here to fill skills gaps which don’t exist, and after that their aspirations and entrepreneurialism is directed to defrauding Australians about their rights and entitlements in being here, and making sure they can hang around.

    Cath brings in the concept of precarious work.  Someone should mention to Cath that the entire Australian workforce not involved in the loading of boats full of iron ore to China is precarious, if only at the risk the government may run out of stimulus capacity to keep the population Ponzi afloat.  Awareness of that is what prompts domestic Australians to try and maximise their incomes and conditions in the here and now, and the existence of exploitable migrants in large numbers is manifestly not in their interests. Specifically because these nail their employment conditions and remuneration outcomes to the floor

    Ms D’Souza wants to level the playing field.

    Last year’s budget included a plan to make newly arrived residents wait four years before being able to get income support like JobSeeker, the carers payment and parental leave pay. That income pressure leads to bad outcomes, she said.

    “So an engineer might come here, find that it’s taking them too long to find a job and will probably just work at whatever so that they can make ends meet,” she said.

    “If they were eligible for support, they might wait a bit longer and find the right job for them.”

    Meanwhile, Monica from Bogotá is now Monica of Melbourne.

    “Absolutely. I feel that Australia is my home,” Ms Mattos said.

    “We’ve got an income, we’re paying taxes, we’re contributing to the community in a good way.”

    “We are very happy here. Not only happy but very grateful.”

    A speciously discombobulated serving of bilge from Gabriela rounds out the piece.  She is looking forward to migrants coming here on skills visas having a bigger slurp on the taxpayer through social welfare.

    She notes that if the skills that get the visas are pure bull in terms of the skills or the demand for them, then those coming here on them will do whatever they can and take whatever they can get.  She would like them to be paid more by Australia while they wait for the right gig.

    The close out is with Ms Mattos who is happy.  She is probably the only one.

    Gabriela goes down by the bow with all hands lost……..

    • but the simple fact of the matter is that if she came here on a skilled migration program then the first question which arises is ‘why was she working in jobs not linked to her qualifications?’

      Exactly!

    • “Workers are not exactly like goods,” she explained.

      Fck me Dead, aren’t we proles lucky to have complex concepts like that explained to us by geniuses like Gabriella, particularly when her masters treat people exactly like goods, and cheap ones to be squeezed as hard as possible and then discarded at that.

      • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

        They don’t treat them like goods!
        They treat them like units, that’s what they are called in economic zones

    • Excellent response. I stopped reading that article when they said:

      “Since the borders shut in March last year, more than 500,000 temporary migrants have left the country”

      Then in the very next sentence:

      “With the same amount of work to be done,”

      Utter stupidity from the same people who think bums in seats adds to jobs, but somehow even when they leave, the same amount of work needs to be done.

      Defies all logic.

    • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

      isupracommentārīphobia. Typically develops due to an aversion to scrolling. On mobile devices.

      Remind me to tell you my carpooltunnel syndrome joke sometime btw.

    • Muttafukaburrasaurus.MEMBER

      Well said.
      But far to considered of the facts to be broadcast to the populace. The ABC assumes we’re all racists, so everything foreign is positive and far more culturally important than anything Australian.

    • Will she hold on for her 70th anniversary in Feb?

      As an aside, I understand that the Australian Republican Movement is close to releasing their preferred model for an Australian Republic. They will hold off doing so if Her Maj looks like kicking the bucket.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      It might be time to get rid of coinage all together once Lizzy dies.
      No one wants to see Charlie come up when they call heads.

      • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

        I have about two-dozen Australian currency-issue Charles and Di coins in my ‘collection’ – Australia, calling the future for the last 40 years.

  3. Dear Dan Andrews

    If any reporters asking about that pesky lancet study that says the viral load is very similar for vaccinated and unvaccinated please do the following (a) you personally debunk by saying yeh nah we are similar to that other part of the world where study conducted because we all live on terra firma but we are also different because we have kangaroos and koalas and for that reason the lancet study is not relevant to Australia and (b) distract the reporters from asking questions by pointing over to martin foley holding and kissing a baby

    And please bash the unvaccinated. Show the unvaccinated NO MERCY

    I am saying this dan andrews as I truly hope you get what you deserve at the next election by following my advice……oh, that’s right, your welcome….. hehehe

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00648-4/fulltext

    ……..Nonetheless, fully vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections have peak viral load similar to unvaccinated cases and can efficiently transmit infection in household settings, including to fully vaccinated contacts…….

    • RobotSenseiMEMBER

      Funny that you leave out the caveat to your point:
      Fully vaccinated individuals with delta variant infection had a faster (posterior probability >0·84) mean rate of viral load decline (0·95 log10 copies per mL per day) than did unvaccinated individuals with pre-alpha (0·69), alpha (0·82), or delta (0·79) variant infections.
      So yes, they’re still infectious, but not for as long. Well, that changes things doesn’t it?

    • Muttafukaburrasaurus.MEMBER

      It doesn’t matter if your Andrews or Berejiklian.
      Capital city population density is to high, you have to breathe each other exhalations … it’s a respiratory virus.
      These viral sinks will continue to support surges of infection, has anyone never caught a ‘cold’ (corona virus) twice or more?

  4. responding to robotsensei comments but came up in wrong place

    hopefully dan andrews seizes on this (robitsensei comments) and bashed the unvaccinated with no mercy so then he can get what he deserves at election time hehehe

    and tell him about the terra firm / kangaroo koala / kiss baby advice and tell him i said he is welcome for accepting my advice

    from last night posted late so will drop in here

    https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2021/11/macro-afternoon-1240/

    Victorian bar and law institute of victoria have HUGE problems with all of the proposed legislation including among many other things the characteristics issue. They are the legal gatekeepers, they know what is terrible law that is NOT democratic and is in fact STASI law. I am now scared to tell people what my characteristics are such as religion, political affiliations, gender, race, etc. SCARY STASI LAW.

    Think this person ( JK ) says it nicely

    https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/politics/andrews-government-forced-to-make-changes-to-pandemic-bill-ahead-of-debate-in-victorian-parliament/news-story/854e19beb68d93def46aca7d3cc3b2aa

    “…For all those wanting to force people to take vaccines. What is your reasoning? Once you are vaccinated you are protected……The latest Lancet medical study has shown there is no difference between vaccinated and unvaccinated people in terms of transmission. Only thing it does is reduce your chance of severe illness and dying. And that is a personal choice. Vaccinated people still, can and will get the virus from other vaccinated people….”

    I want Andrews and labour gone at next elections. ANDREWS PLEASE BASH THE UNVACCINATED AS WANT YOU GONE AT NEXT ELECTION

    • RobotSenseiMEMBER

      Yeah again, a) vaccinated people transmit for a shorter time period and b) you’re taking the “personal choice” mantra a wee bit too far. Does that give me the right to go discharge weapons in public, drive 200km/hr down the wrong side of the road, or run a restaurant where I let rats and cockroaches run around food prep areas, all with the view that my personal autonomy outshines every other right a society places on people?

      Newsflash: Andrews is going to win the next election handsomely.

      • re your comment Newsflash: Andrews is going to win the next election handsomely.

        I want to help Andrews achieve exactly the election outcome that I think he deserves. Please ask him to follow my advice and bash the unvaccinated (no mercy)

        • RobotSenseiMEMBER

          Maybe you can take a gallows to his re-election party and see how far you get.

          Also lol @ you not addressing the statement I pointed out in your paper. Didn’t want to discuss that wee important point, did we?

          • cannot hang around to debate as perhaps / perhaps not go and attend protest where only trouble I perhaps / perhaps not saw was three legged old black labrador growling at two other dogs. hopefully those lovely church people there again holding candles and picture of jesus while singing hymns, can neither conform nor deny whether have been to protest or not in past, or whether will go in future, given scary STASI powers in new bill. scared the STASI will kick in my door and “dissappear” me and i wont even be able to avoid self incrimination. scary STASI law

          • christopher blanden QC of victoria bar (president) discussing STASI…….very interesting thoughts

            https://www.peterwalsh.org.au/media/victorias-finest-legal-minds-liken-andrews-to-the-stasi-the-dreaded-east-german-secret-police/

            Mr Walsh said Victorian Bar president Christopher Blanden QC has warned the Andrews government’s controversial new pandemic legislation will give it “unlimited power to rule the state by decree”.

            Mr Blanden has told media this bid to ram such divisive and controversial laws through Parliament “doesn’t add up to good democracy in my book. It’s a disgrace. What’s the ­urgency”?

            “If the Stasi (the East German secret police) had these powers, they would still be in force,” he said.

            …..democracy has already gone out the window in Victoria

            ……it will be a long road back to democracy

            blanden is obviously very intellgent to be a QC and very respected to be preseident of victorian bar talking about these very scary thoughts about the STASI…..i certainly would never want to be just “disappeared” with no warrant and with no right to avoid self incrimination….no wonder people get scared when they hear word STASI

            think another country currently just “disappears” people….who is that again??? is it china

            it is not for me to argue against such a heavy weight legal mind like blanden. this guy is like a legal titan….very smart

          • The great thing about blanden and also victorian bar and also law institute of victoria getting involved and expressing their views whether the proposed law is or is NOT democratic and grants STASI powers is that ordinary mums and dads who do not have any idea whether proposed law is good or not get an extremely clear picture cause they respect these legal heavyweights / titans. Which is obviously what we all want which is full transparency and disclosure for ordinary mum and dad voters so they can vote accordingly at election with full knowledge of what these laws mean

          • “If the Stasi (the East German secret police) had these powers, they would still be in force,” he said.

            Gonna take a punt that the Stasi had quite a bit more power.

          • RobotSenseiMEMBER

            It’s a special kind of talent to be debating yourself and still clearly have the smoothest brain in the room.

  5. What I loved about ABC’s Preppers
    https://www.abc.net.au/everyday/preppers-abc-what-i-loved-about-comedy-show/100622144

    ABC wants to humorise and legitimise high house prices and a corrupt political system into ‘comedy’. This nearly made me want to vomit. The only audience for a show like this would be woman.

    There’s nothing funny about being lied to by your own Government and/or Media Agencys.

    Comedy and Humor is a form of deception used in war mongering when you wish to deceive an opponent so they look the other way while you lie to them.

    You attack someone and then you say, ” But I was just joking? It was just a joke? Cant you take a joke? “.

    Its just another form of attack.

    • What was that lovely show on SBS where ‘Aboriginals where descendents of the Chinese so therefore, China owns Australia anyway’. A lovely little comedy where you where left thinking, ” Those poor Chinese people. They dont want to invade our country, they where just hard done by and good honest folk. ”

      Some lovely trash coming out on Australias Media lately. So first we censor peoples voices and now we replace it with Chinese Propaganda in Australia?

      There’s a lot of propaganda out lately.

      A taste of Labor slowly starting to come out in our Media huh?

    • Extremist anti-vaxxer death and rape threats force WA Premier Mark McGowan to shut down his electorate office
      https://www.news.com.au/national/western-australia/extremist-antivaxxer-death-and-rape-threats-force-wa-premier-mark-mcgowan-to-shut-down-his-electorate-office/news-story/ee2396ee5675cf8afef3f2df0863e516

      Australia Media Censorship preventing Aussies from having a voice… Chinese Propaganda being put on Australias TV… and this stuff happening in Australia.

      Its hard to tell the difference between the Human Rights, those protecting Real Estate Prices, the Corporate Vested Interests and Foreign Interference.

      So we want to rush migration into Sydney / Melbourne to fill that up and dont expect to have any National Security Issues in this Country.

      Australias turning into a National Security Nightmare.

      I see a time when Aussies get thrown off every platform and have nowhere to go unless they conform to whats being told. We are slowly being divided and there arent many places left.

      When the sh*t goes down, where will Aussies turn to? You can see Australias Lack of Trust starting to change our society into Tribalism.

      Who will Aussies turn to when all this turns into a disaster? Where will Aussies be safe?

    • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

      Yes. Khawaja will be selected… and Head will thank his lucky stars and wait for the inevitable call up.

      • I saw that. My favorite one of late was Matth making fun of the strained efforts to raise Mark Waugh up to deity status. The author of those ones does not take suggestions to refine, or criticisms of, his method well at all. He is the pro Mark Waugh version of an anti-vaxxer or climate change denier. It’s a hoot.

          • There are enough folk passing comment.

            The funny thing is that I understand what he is attempting to achieve. Others seem to as well. It is just that the author is so caught up in the conclusion he is seeking that he won’t seek an impartial way of breaking down the innings.

            When you look at that chap on ESPNcricinfo who does the massive stat overviews and how he puts forward the how and why the difference in night and day. That said. The ESPN chap will also change the inputs to get a answer he seeks. He is just more open about it. He is also happy to say that his favorites, or what he considers to be the best, differ from the results that his computations offer up.

          • You can comment on other articles though.

            I got bored with all the Mark Waugh and meaningful runs discussion so just ignored them.

    • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

      Dunno why people bother with antigen testing. It’s surveillance testing only innit? Need PCR to then confirm if you’re positive anyway.

      “rapid antigen” sure sounds cool though.

  6. Stochastic is telling me that its not 10:30pm yet. Need to go back to bed. There’s still more sleep I can have.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Been a regular visitor up there since the early 80s.
      I’ve walked across that bridge p!ssed over a 100 times from the Tea gardens hotel to wherever we were staying in Hawks Nest at the time.
      Couldn’t book a caravan at the 2 caravan parks under my cousins or my name for years in me late teens/early 20s due to us playing up so much.
      Luckily the family had multiple holiday houses up there over the years (from the 1940s)
      Use to have the best Christmas’s ever up there.
      My best mate from Sydney moved up there in the early 2000s and now has 4 daughters under 12 with a young local girl. So I’m still going up there all the time.
      Fken Obeid!