Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

Asian stock markets remain relatively unsettled with a lack of economic catalysts save the volatility on bond markets helping dampen down risk spirits. The USD is relatively strong against the major undollars, with gold pushing past the $1865USD per ounce level while Bitcoin has collapsed through its recent support levels, about to push below the $60K level:

Chinese shares are quite mixed with the Shanghai Composite down 0.1% going into close, currently at 3529 points while the Hang Seng Index is quickly surging, up over 1% at 25673 points. Japanese markets are stuck lacking any direction, with the Nikkei 225 barely closing 0.1% higher at 29808 points as the USDJPY pair tries to get back to its previous weekly highs above the 114 handle but is running out of puff indicating resistance ahead:

Australian stocks were the odd ones out after the reaction to the latest RBA minutes with the ASX200 closing 0.7% lower at 7420 points while the Australian dollar is starting to rollover from its mild bounce from Friday night, hovering just above its own low moving average on the four hourly chart with short term resistance overhead still not under threat:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are lacking any upside potential so far, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing price still needing to clear short term ATR resistance at the 4700 point level to get back on its previous unstoppable trend:

The economic calendar continues with UK unemployment and US retail sales and industrial production for October.

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Comments

  1. C'est de la folieMEMBER

    On request……

    The Travelling PhantomMEMBER
    November 15, 2021 at 5:28 pm
    https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2021/11/macro-afternoon-1239/#comment-4203301
    What happened to honest non partisan public servants?!

    Frostilicus
    November 15, 2021 at 6:00 pm
    The oldest were handed handsome separation packages and retired, the next ones in line got fired and re-hired on short term contracts and if they want to be re-hired they’d better keep that spine flexible as a noodle, and the young ones are hired on the same short term contracts, have no history of the place, no oldbies to set the tone, and they’re all either scared s**tless about getting fired or alternately, cannot give 2 sh*ts about the place.

    That was part of it for sure…..

    Those who came afterward were ‘team players’ where the ‘team’ was whoever was in power (mainly Liberal for the last 25 years). They soon were told (and a telling it sometimes was) that they may have whole departments and systems behind them providing information but that they didnt count any more than those ideologically close to the Minister or the right party.

    They were rewarded with handsome bonus payments and the advent of ‘performance pay’ in the upper echelons of the public sector became a mechanism to get a posse of like minded team players underneath them, so that the discordant voice backed by data and not paying the appropriate ideological lip service became ever more distant from the Ministers ear. Over time they took control of who was in ‘their’ team and and those in their team began to shape who was in their subordinate teams as executive public sector salaries and classifications went ever closer to the sun and everyday public sector salaries were kept lean.

    Amongst those upper level teams of like minded thinkers were people who could be relied upon to pooh pooh questions and ideas which werent ‘on song’ – They didnt ask questions about the children overboard and they didnt ask questions about robodebts, and other strategic public sector decisions involving outsourcing or the complete denial of any public sector need for dedicated IT services or even compatible IT systems.

    Of course contracting out to the efficient private sector was part of this and those privatised contracted service providers would never dream of reporting anything in their public interactions or the data they collected which would ever suggest anything was less than perfect in their worlds. As more and more was contracted out more and more became subject to ‘commercial in confidence considerations’ so less and less was reported about what public sector organisations were actually doing – all the public needed to know was that ‘efficient’ contracted service providers were on the job doing whatever the government asked, and if those efficient service providers were milking the taxpayer via a contract or two who was ever going to know? In the same way it doesnt matter if the only people ever being promoted or getting access to higher level gigs have spent 2 decades in offices being nobodies who cant count or write or make a remotely plausible decision or be accountable for anything – if they voice the right sentiments to the right person and keep their moistened lips close to the appropriate buttocks they have the ‘right behaviours’ and the team ‘leadership ethos’ and should be gravitated higher.

    Of course the mindset has now metastasized down to a low level and questions never get asked about anything, and the cult of personality – almost precisely as Stalin would have known it – pervades the public sector. Human Services has quite low level executives and managers who oversee the ‘recruitment’ of zillions of ‘private service providers’ who do nothing but read from scripts when the public is actually able to get through to them (and any deviation from the script will see the private service provider asked not to worry about turning up some day real soon). Sometimes the recruitment ‘agencies’ are real nice to those managers and executives and make sure that there is a tenant in said managers investment properties who has a gig doing that peon work – that keeps those agencies supplying the bodies and the decisionmakers being supplied, and who is ever going to know? And if a question cant be answered from a script then the call is ‘escalated’ and the bill for the service provided goes up a notch. Almost anywhere in the public sector this will be the payment structure for the IT help desks which helps to explain the hour long waits to get help, the instant escalation and the almost immediate email notifying of a job logged as well as more emails notifying of job closed and job escalated all flooding inboxes in seconds. They should all be accompanied by the sound of a ringing till, because thats what they are.

    As long as nothing affects the financial flow and economic structure the power elite enjoy being ‘diverse’ because those ideologues know that nothing is as dogmatic as an ageing white male with data and regulation behind them, thinking about principle good at maths and writing. The answer is ‘team player’ ageing white females who feel entitled to discriminate (and entitled to their salaries) who focus on ‘behaviours’ and who can cultivate the ‘right mindset’ at lower levels by ensuring that diminished (financially stressed) or subordinate (preferably recent migrant) men are a key priority, or preferably even members of the LGBTQ world, while ensuring cattle class employees are weeded of anyone looking like becoming outspoken or who has cottoned on and feels the urge to pipe up (male or female). There is nothing as unanimous as a room full of yes persons…..

    These sift the right approaches from quite a long way down through meaningless KPIs and meaningless performance managements and the cultivation of the right sort of subservience – and a world where focus on the best possible job moves away from systems volumes measurables and technologies and over into the camp of repeating the exhortations of the next level up and prioritising exactly what they are told to prioritise. The ‘Public Good’ and anything remotely resembling ‘right’ or ‘principled’ or even ‘serving the public’ goes out the window as the only focus which counts is getting the payout at the end and not being discovered for any malfeasance until then. And the best way to ensure malfeasance remains undiscovered is to promote dullards who will worship their predecessors after they have departed with their redundancies and super payouts.

    That sort of power and that sort of managerial mindset breeds some superbly abstruse behaviours. Defence has a Director who communicates with staff via Puppy Blogging and and a load of Deputy Secretaries who like to travel around the country in pairs taking part in morning teas where they discuss post working life aspirations for their farewell tours prior to retirement. Tax and Health run endless ‘educational’ seminars and mindfulness sessions all pitched at the idea that the start of any problems people have in their workplace is the individual.

    But the inboxes of people in these worlds fill up everyday with questionnaires and surveys about how they feel about their jobs and what they think of their chiefs and the processes employed in their workplaces. And every quarter they report up to their chiefs that ‘the world is good down below’ and the contract spent surveying staff is money well outlaid to whatever consultancy provides it. But every now and then you get a glimpse of something like a response rate suggesting the underlings completely ignore the survey, or, worse, completely think their chiefs are a load of pricks.

    The Frank and Fearless public servant still exists – but only right at the bottom, and only until the end of the contract.

    ……while we wonder what is happening with taxation, energy, carbon pricing and social welfare, while wondering how a census can fall over because the ABS cant set up a website or nobody ever lays a hand on any foreigners buying Australian real estate or does anything about rising house prices. The public sector is headed up by people paid very good money to ensure that their departments dont address any of these, and that those departments are weighed down by executive imbeciles, shackled to private sector leeches, and lack the means to craft decent policy wherever it may be felt such policy departs from the in situ ideology.

      • Hey. I take offense at that. I’m so proficient at ranting I no longer require the stuff to rant about. If I had the stuff could I get one of those sweet upper echelon gov jobs that the French chap is talking about?

          • Much to my shame I have worn shoes before. Much to my future self’s shame I will wear shoes again. For we do not live in the best of all possible worlds. We love in a world where such horrors as shoes and pants are forced upon us. “My body, my choice.” I say. “Nope.” says everyone else. And alas, because the sheeple wear shoes and pants, so must I. Never forget that man is born free yet everywhere he is in pants.

      • When you live in a democracy, you have an obligation to speak out. Sounds like you prefer a Communist Dictatorship.

        • Obligation? That’s a strong word. It implies a certain sense of necessity. An inference that one must act in a certain way. That doesn’t sound very freedom loving to me.

          • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

            Too right. I’ll determine what I complain pointlessly about and the manner in which those complaints are voiced and heard by no one who matters.

      • public choice theory…
        The public service is really just another interest group seeking a bigger budget etc., it cant possibly be acting in the common good because there is no common good just interest groups…

        • Fine with the public choice aspect but most of government has been allocated to the market with a bare bones government administrative to oversea the flow of funds to the private sector ***experts*** and not to mention the revolving door between the two. But this is all old news to those that watched the free market posse roll this all out over the decades.

    • Yeah. I’ve noticed woman are part of this ‘yes men’ crowd. I read an old CIA tactic where they used woman to control a crowd. Wherever the woman went, the men would follow. It certainly doesnt work for me.

      Based on what a lot of men are saying, I’d say the simpletons are being dragged along into being ‘yes men’ by there p*nis.

      Woman are part of the problem and when Australia collapses, most will just grab the nearest Foreigner and move offshore to follow the money.

      Men are most definitely being targeted by both Liberal and Labor. 10% of men might be better under Liberal but the vast majority arent.

      I dont think I’ve ever known a time when men are being more mind f*cked then they are right now. We live in a time of lies and the lies are everywhere.

      This system needs to be destroyed. Its going to happen regardless but the sooner it happens, the better we can fix the thing.

      Interesting stats in America. Woman these days are popping Anti-Depressants like crazy. Many are expected to be single and alone by the age of 40.

      What man wants a disloyal, unfaithful sl*t who’s tempted by Australias failed Laws and Legal Structure? What man wants a single mother at 40? Feminism is only making all this worse. The tighter the noose, the more men will stay away. Marriage stats are telling the story. Woman are going to end up very lonely when they hit 40. No man will touch em.

      Marriage has died and been replaced with IVF and Anti-depessants. From a ‘Community’ perspective, its going to be a catastrophe, I think.

      A Dark Future Is On The Horizon… – Female Loneliness Future
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8telkBWbgQ

      Men are wisening up.

      • You can’t help yourself can you? A few days licking your wounds and then you’re back with another dump of bile, this time with a link to Rollo’s toxic swamp.
        Incel or divorced, which one?
        Have you booked your first appointment with the counsellor yet? Have you got the guts to do it?
        Just remember, the longer you delay the worse you get and the harder to crawl out of that toxic space.

    • “Tax and Health run endless ‘educational’ seminars and mindfulness sessions all pitched at the idea that the start of any problems people have in their workplace is the individual”

      Spot on. Mindfulness is completely reactionary.
      Imagine telling an exile freezing to death in Siberia circa 1901 that their issue is not with Tsarist Russia, but that they need to be more mindful.

      A lot of the problems in workplaces do start with the individuals though ie. management. Just seems to attract terrible people unless they have a founding stake.
      When Hawke/Keating corporatised the departments they effectively created corporations with 20m + passive invisible shareholders who wouldn’t even know who is running it. it becomes the worst of all worlds.

  2. Dan Andrews draconian legislation can lock up people based on characteristics perhaps even going so far as locking up those who attend a protest or read an economics blog hehehe

    For that reason will neither confirm nor deny that have never attended any protest in my life till last night for a few hours, perhaps saw that protestors just full of mums and dads and kids, maybe the only trouble I saw was an older three legged black Labrador growling at another two dogs, and perhaps that a whole lot of young men and women from a church group attended the protest singing hymns and carrying candles with picture of jesus (they were treated respectfully by the crowd). perhaps We all stood in solidarity

    If you read in newspapers that it was frightening and scary maybe I can tell you it is all CRAP. Go down there and see with your own eyes, they are just ordinary folk who have had enough. Perhaps Do not take my word for it, go down and see yourself. I cannot / will not / do not want to incriminate myself because of characteristics such as attending a protest or reading an economics blog

    Prediction dan Andrews that later this week you back down on the jihad against the unvaccinated. You will capitulate. You have lost. The unvaccinated will be in retail before xmas 2021. I DARE YOU TO TAKE ME ON over this as deep down I would love you to keep doing a jihad on the unvaccinated so you are gone at next election. you have p*ssed off the whole victorian community well done

    • I haven’t been paying attention to this. If you wouldn’t mind helping me out I’d really appreciate it.

      How is what being proposed different to what is currently in place?
      How will Vic differ to the other states if this is passed?
      What are the details of greatest concern?
      And, if there is a chance of abuse are there any checks and balances proposed to ensure that it doesn’t occur?

      I only ask as it seems easier asking an expert like yourself who is obviously across the topic than reading the legislation myself. I’m just lazy like that.

      • I am sure you are not lazy perhaps you just don’t have the time to research…that’s fine…. may I suggest you look up the succinct but very insightful comments from the victorian bar and the law institute of victoria outlining why it is said this legislation is draconian and even referred to as STASI legislation and allows Andrews to rule by decree….they are very eloquent in how they write about the shortcomings of this legislation which has been said to be draconian which presumably means that any tyrant would love it hence the reference to STASI

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          You are low on detail, and high on emotive trigger words.

          In professional life, that’s a sure indicator of a BS artist.

          • LOL that is very funny. Perhaps you are totally right, or perhaps totally wrong, or perhaps somewhere in between. Anyway perhaps now have to go off to a protest, or perhaps watch TV or perhaps eat dinner. Do not want to give too much away as understand certain legislation may now get you jailed or massively fined based on characteristics ie perhaps for being a protestor. Now understand why people would be scared if this legislation is comparable to powers of STASI

        • suspect now that pandemic is over ordinary mums and dads and the general victoria community (including highly revered legal groups etc) will not accept any legislation if the leader and party are strongly perceived to be totally useless/ incompetent and bullying tyrants. Strongly suspect victorian community thinks Andrews well and truly stuffed up which is quite an achievement given how many useless governments there are in this world

      • It looks like they’ve amended it since the legal groups pointed out it’s problems. I don’t know if they’ve re reviewed it.

    • oh wow.
      Look there is no discrimination at all based on characteristics.
      Getting vaccinated is a *choice* not an immutable characteristic. you can choose to go barefoot to a bar or job interview – you may not get in – but that is your choice.

      And due to terrible reporting by journalism the context/purpose of the legislation seems to have been completely skipped over.
      namely: if we didn’t have the anti vax cohort the legislation probably would’t be needed because future lock-down measures and other restrictions probably wouldn’t be necessary – the reff in Vic is now <1 because of the high vax rate. The legislation is necessary to enable restrictions quickly if needed before the cat is out of the bag

      So first they whinge about rolling up their sleeves
      they then whinge about legislation passed through 2 x democratically elected chambers acting under a federal constitution with recourse to the courts, oversight of committees and elections,adapting powers passed by parliament in the 80s – passed *specifically because these people won't roll up their sleeves* and are forcing the prospective cloud of lock-down to hang over the whole community.

      It is so stupid. it's like a toddler who sits in their high chair, pushes their baby food on to the ground so mummy and daddy have to pick it up and then tears up because they are hungry.

      • Victorian bar and law institute of victoria have HUGE problems with all of the proposed legislation including among many other things the characteristics issue. They are the legal gatekeepers, they know what is terrible law that is NOT democratic and is in fact STASI law. I am now scared to tell people what my characteristics are such as religion, political affiliations, gender, race, etc. SCARY STASI LAW.

        Think this person ( JK ) says it nicely

        https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/politics/andrews-government-forced-to-make-changes-to-pandemic-bill-ahead-of-debate-in-victorian-parliament/news-story/854e19beb68d93def46aca7d3cc3b2aa

        “…For all those wanting to force people to take vaccines. What is your reasoning? Once you are vaccinated you are protected……The latest Lancet medical study has shown there is no difference between vaccinated and unvaccinated people in terms of transmission. Only thing it does is reduce your chance of severe illness and dying. And that is a personal choice. Vaccinated people still, can and will get the virus from other vaccinated people….”

        I want Andrews and labour gone at next elections. ANDREWS PLEASE BASH THE UNVACCINATED AS WANT YOU GONE AT NEXT ELECTION

  3. There seems to be talk of the cashless pension card being expanded to more people on gov support. Is there any truth to this or is it speculation and fear mongering?

    If true I’ll get some mild joy at needling a few folk I know who thought it dandy that others be treated so poorly. But hopefully it isn’t and hopefully they bin the whole stupid idea.

  4. I’m sure I ‘m going to regret asking this but…

    Does anyone have any ideas for gifts for me to put on my family Secret Santa Wishlist? The budget is up to $150 and I’m getting hassled by the organiser for not having anything. Am thinking of something for the BBQ or some new small tech thing but haven’t really found anything inspiring.

  5. RobotSenseiMEMBER

    I’m probably buying a house in the next few weeks.

    Given my timing with all things financial is horrendous, this is your “peak of the market” warning.

    • Gotcha. Go all in SafeMoon. Well a derivative of SafeMoon. Actually a derivative of a derivative of SafeMoon.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      I’ll be joining you in the next six months. Would have done by now but got stuck by travel restrictions.

    • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

      Nah the peak of the market when Harry buys, that will be definitely it.
      Expect Bcnich predictions would be a stroll in the garden when that happens

    • The scary thing is rent is rising so fast up here and I’m lucky enough to ba able to put so much aside that even I’ve had a few looks at listings. The scarier thing is how much those dunderheads at the bank will lend me.

    • Why would the market care about nonproductive soon to be dead people like the fats and covid …. sux the oxygen out of the room for those getting ahead and having a go … millstones to individual potential …

      • … because they dont care about you. They’d happily own 20 houses and walk over your grave in a heart beat.

        People can enjoy being cucked if they want to be.

  6. The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

    Why does Michael Clarke look like Jamie Oliver now?

    And why would anyone care what either of them thinks about when the coach of the T-20 World Cup-winning team should *stop* coaching the Australian team? Maybe he should have a lay down and another biscuit. And buy a 2025 calendar.

  7. Labor leader Anthony Albanese promises high speed internet to a million homes in major election pledge
    https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/labor-leader-anthony-albanese-promises-high-speed-internet-to-a-million-homes-in-major-election-pledge/news-story/0cfd1cce2e227331804efe53bd093cee

    Economy is cactus, House Prices unattainable, Labor Force wrecked, Marriage and Family dead… and Labor wants to give us Internet.

    Dont you need a house to have the internet?

    Labor needs to do better on Housing or its wasting everyones time.

    • The Rainbow and Unicorns election.

      ScoMo Lies his a$$ off. You’ll get nothing but lies from him.

      Labor is terrified of losing another election so is likely to play the Populist card. That’ll mean you’ll get nothing but fairy floss and lies as well ( not telling us the truthe is considered deceptive conduct… and is actually a lie ). They’ll withhold stuff on the fear it might lose them another election ( like giving free houses to migrants or something ).

      Between the two of them, they’ll be selling us ‘Rainbows and Unicorns’.

      They’ll be f&rting sweet smelling rainbows.

      Elections are so much fun – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ESG3KR0lk4

  8. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    Update … China … What’s left to save what ? …

    China’s Property Crackdown Is Dragging Economy to Lows of 1990 … Bloomberg

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-16/china-s-property-crackdown-is-dragging-economy-to-lows-of-1990

    Economists are coming to realize that the Communist Party’s Politburo, the top decision-making body, was serious when it vowed this year not to use the property sector to stimulate the economy as they did following past downturns. Officials say excess supply of housing is a threat to economic stability, and want investment to go to prioritized sectors like hi-tech manufacturing rather than more apartments.

    “President Xi thinks the property sector is too big,” said Chen Long, an economist at Beijing-based consultancy Plenum. “Xi is personally involved in real estate policies, so ministries don’t dare to ease policies without his approval.”…

    … The most spectacular decline has been in newly started housing projects, the steel-intensive part of real estate development, which fell more than 33% year-on-year in October, the biggest decline on record. … read more via hyperlink above …

    Analysis: China’s real estate woes sap property investment products … Reuters

    https://www.reuters.com/business/chinas-real-estate-woes-sap-property-investment-products-2021-11-16/

    Next Evergrande? $900 Billion in debt, 24 million loss per day, the highest of its kind in the world … China Insights … Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eLCa6Vl7EeQ&t=2s

    Advanced tech and infrastructure, not housing, will drive long-term growth … Global Times

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202111/1239018.shtml

  9. Former PM John Howard says Australia and China’s relationship has hit a 30-year low, with the Chinese government’s aggressive need for power to blame.
    https://www.news.com.au/world/asia/former-prime-minister-john-howard-blasts-belligerent-chinese-government/news-story/67e26100a1cc83077d42cb65196cf666

    A 5 year old could have seen this coming. All Im reading is, ” Poor us… China wont give us entitled idiots money anymore. Im going to go cry because China wont give me money “.

    “I think China has a lot to learn about the diplomacy that’s appropriate to a rising power.”
    “I don’t think the Chinese trade punishment is worthy of a great power,” he said.

    Oh well. If China kills you, can I have your house? No sympathy from me.

    These falling currencys are fantastic. Im loving it. Im making money in spite of what Australias done in the past 15 years.

    If a war is declared tommorrow and Im conscripted then I’ll spend that time in jail. Dishonourable discharge for me. I dont know much about China but what I do know, is Liberals are the enemy of Australian Citizens. The past 15 years has been atrocious.

    Im guessing the Libs arent making money anymore so now they want to have a little cry.