Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

A fairly solid start to the trading week for Asian stock markets although Chinese bourses are unsettled as risk markets continue to discard transitory inflation risks just like the Australian government discards its climate change policy the day after COP26. The USD is mixed against the majors although gold is looking a bit tenuous here after a too fast run last week with a bearish rising wedge pattern forming on the four hourly chart as momentum wanes:

Chinese shares are putting in scratch sessions with the Shanghai Composite down 0.1% going into close, currently at 3533 points while the Hang Seng Index is doing the same, currently at 25299 points. Japanese markets are surging despite a poor GDP print, with the Nikkei 225 closing some 0.5% higher at 29759 points as the USDJPY pair fails to arrest the decline from Friday nights last session where a failed breakout has brought it back below the 114 handle again:

Australian stocks are putting in a solid start to the trading week, despite a higher Australian dollar with the ASX200 closing 0.4% higher at 7470 points while the Australian dollar is continuing its mild bounce from Friday night, following through above the 73 handle but not yet on a positive momentum setting or having cleared short term resistance overhead:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are basically in line with there Friday finishes, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing price needing to clear short term ATR resistance at the 4700 point level to get back on its previous unstoppable trend:

The economic calendar starts the week lightly with a couple of speeches from ECB President Lagarde and not much else.

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Comments

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          What if the first God was just a shifty dude who was slightly smarter than the dull-eyed morons looking up while they were in the middle of skinning and dressing some giant herbivore? You know, the bloke who talked a lot to get out of work.

          It would explain a lot.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Ha! Not so much a breakup because that was Bonzo dying but I immediately thought of Jimmy Page.

            But yes, you’re correct. Except for the Rolling Stones. Keiff is a legitimate God yet they refuse to break up, and only recently gave thought to dying gracefully.

    • Lower than Labor could. Of course. But we all knew that, since Labor wouldn’t be able to win a participation prize at a diversity is our strength rally let alone an election against Pinocchio from The Shire.

      • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

        You got it Gav.

        And the smarter ones can all be bribed into doing so through tax-cuts.

    • Yeah. I was thinking about this.

      My thoughts where, ” Are they try to murder off Queenslanders Deliberately or just Incompetently? ”

      Australias at 0.10% interest rates with 211% private debt-to-gdp. They’ve bankrupted NSW and VIC by all this migration. Its jacked up debt levels to insane amounts. Leith says property / migration will keep going to 2032. I just cant see it.

      That trajectory puts us into a) Massively Negative interest rates or b) Massive hypr-inflation.

      .Australias going to have a lot of deaths on this trajectory and it’ll be ‘Aussie Deaths’ not ‘Migrant Deaths’.

      Upon that trajectory, many Australians are going to be killed.

      ” She’ll be right mate. We are just murdering off Aussies now. ”

      There’s going to be a wave of deaths coming in the future I see. Lots of dead people.

  1. dan andrews really made a disaster of new pandemic laws and locking out unvaccinated hehehe

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10201471/Top-doctor-fires-brutal-shot-Daniel-Andrews-despite-Covid-cases-dropping.html
    Dr Coatsworth said the same frequency and scale of protests being held in Melbourne – which holds the unenviable record of the world’s longest lockdown – wasn’t being seen in other capital cities.

    victorian bar says it is STASI legislation. LOL the nazis would love this legislation as it goes directly against / opposite of what democracy stands for. dan andrew legislation goes against the basic building block of our society which is democrarcy. thank you victorian bar for the reference to the STASI

    and law institute victoria is against the proposed legilsation

    this is fantastic. dan andrews has stuffed up completely. go ahead dan bash the unvaccinated. I DARE YOU hehehe

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Lol, Nick Coatsworth! Doctor who said WuFlu can’t be airborne. He’s a Liberal Party mouthpiece, nothing else.

      There’s problems with the legislation but going by Dr Nick’s reputation of being wrong on everything I’ll give a quick yeah, nah.

      Top doctor…

      • The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

        Spot on, and here in vic we got the Labor mouth piece.
        What happened to honest non partisan public servants?!

        • The oldest were handed handsome separation packages and retired, the next ones in line got fired and re-hired on short term contracts and if they want to be re-hired they’d better keep that spine flexible as a noodle, and the young ones are hired on the same short term contracts, have no history of the place, no oldbies to set the tone, and they’re all either scared s**tless about getting fired or alternately, cannot give 2 sh*ts about the place.

          Does that answer your question?

        • C'est de la folieMEMBER

          The oldest were handed handsome separation packages and retired, the next ones in line got fired and re-hired on short term contracts and if they want to be re-hired they’d better keep that spine flexible as a noodle, and the young ones are hired on the same short term contracts, have no history of the place, no oldbies to set the tone, and they’re all either scared s**tless about getting fired or alternately, cannot give 2 sh*ts about the place.

          That was part of it for sure…..

          Those who came afterward were ‘team players’ where the ‘team’ was whoever was in power (mainly Liberal for the last 25 years). They soon were told (and a telling it sometimes was) that they may have whole departments and systems behind them providing information but that they didnt count any more than those ideologically close to the Minister or the right party.

          They were rewarded with handsome bonus payments and the advent of ‘performance pay’ in the upper echelons of the public sector became a mechanism to get a posse of like minded team players underneath them, so that the discordant voice backed by data and not paying the appropriate ideological lip service became ever more distant from the Ministers ear. Over time they took control of who was in ‘their’ team and and those in their team began to shape who was in their subordinate teams as executive public sector salaries and classifications went ever closer to the sun and everyday public sector salaries were kept lean.

          Amongst those upper level teams of like minded thinkers were people who could be relied upon to pooh pooh questions and ideas which werent ‘on song’ – They didnt ask questions about the children overboard and they didnt ask questions about robodebts, and other strategic public sector decisions involving outsourcing or the complete denial of any public sector need for dedicated IT services or even compatible IT systems.

          Of course contracting out to the efficient private sector was part of this and those privatised contracted service providers would never dream of reporting anything in their public interactions or the data they collected which would ever suggest anything was less than perfect in their worlds. As more and more was contracted out more and more became subject to ‘commercial in confidence considerations’ so less and less was reported about what public sector organisations were actually doing – all the public needed to know was that ‘efficient’ contracted service providers were on the job doing whatever the government asked, and if those efficient service providers were milking the taxpayer via a contract or two who was ever going to know? In the same way it doesnt matter if the only people ever being promoted or getting access to higher level gigs have spent 2 decades in offices being nobodies who cant count or write or make a remotely plausible decision or be accountable for anything – if they voice the right sentiments to the right person and keep their moistened lips close to the appropriate buttocks they have the ‘right behaviours’ and the team ‘leadership ethos’ and should be gravitated higher.

          Of course the mindset has now metastasized down to a low level and questions never get asked about anything, and the cult of personality – almost precisely as Stalin would have known it – pervades the public sector. Human Services has quite low level executives and managers who oversee the ‘recruitment’ of zillions of ‘private service providers’ who do nothing but read from scripts when the public is actually able to get through to them (and any deviation from the script will see the private service provider asked not to worry about turning up some day real soon). Sometimes the recruitment ‘agencies’ are real nice to those managers and executives and make sure that there is a tenant in said managers investment properties who has a gig doing that peon work – that keeps those agencies supplying the bodies and the decisionmakers being supplied, and who is ever going to know? And if a question cant be answered from a script then the call is ‘escalated’ and the bill for the service provided goes up a notch. Almost anywhere in the public sector this will be the payment structure for the IT help desks which helps to explain the hour long waits to get help, the instant escalation and the almost immediate email notifying of a job logged as well as more emails notifying of job closed and job escalated all flooding inboxes in seconds. They should all be accompanied by the sound of a ringing till, because thats what they are.

          As long as nothing affects the financial flow and economic structure the power elite enjoy being ‘diverse’ because those ideologues know that nothing is as dogmatic as an ageing white male with data and regulation behind them, thinking about principle good at maths and writing. The answer is ‘team player’ ageing white females who feel entitled to discriminate (and entitled to their salaries) who focus on ‘behaviours’ and who can cultivate the ‘right mindset’ at lower levels by ensuring that diminished (financially stressed) or subordinate (preferably recent migrant) men are a key priority, or preferably even members of the LGBTQ world, while ensuring cattle class employees are weeded of anyone looking like becoming outspoken or who has cottoned on and feels the urge to pipe up (male or female). There is nothing as unanimous as a room full of yes persons…..

          These sift the right approaches from quite a long way down through meaningless KPIs and meaningless performance managements and the cultivation of the right sort of subservience – and a world where focus on the best possible job moves away from systems volumes measurables and technologies and over into the camp of repeating the exhortations of the next level up and prioritising exactly what they are told to prioritise. The ‘Public Good’ and anything remotely resembling ‘right’ or ‘principled’ or even ‘serving the public’ goes out the window as the only focus which counts is getting the payout at the end and not being discovered for any malfeasance until then. And the best way to ensure malfeasance remains undiscovered is to promote dullards who will worship their predecessors after they have departed with their redundancies and super payouts.

          That sort of power and that sort of managerial mindset breeds some superbly abstruse behaviours. Defence has a Director who communicates with staff via Puppy Blogging and and a load of Deputy Secretaries who like to travel around the country in pairs taking part in morning teas where they discuss post working life aspirations for their farewell tours prior to retirement. Tax and Health run endless ‘educational’ seminars and mindfulness sessions all pitched at the idea that the start of any problems people have in their workplace is the individual.

          But the inboxes of people in these worlds fill up everyday with questionnaires and surveys about how they feel about their jobs and what they think of their chiefs and the processes employed in their workplaces. And every quarter they report up to their chiefs that ‘the world is good down below’ and the contract spent surveying staff is money well outlaid to whatever consultancy provides it. But every now and then you get a glimpse of something like a response rate suggesting the underlings completely ignore the survey, or, worse, completely think their chiefs are a load of pricks.

          The Frank and Fearless public servant still exists – but only right at the bottom, and only until the end of the contract.

          ……while we wonder what is happening with taxation, energy, carbon pricing and social welfare, while wondering how a census can fall over because the ABS cant set up a website or nobody ever lays a hand on any foreigners buying Australian real estate or does anything about rising house prices. The public sector is headed up by people paid very good money to ensure that their departments dont address any of these, and that those departments are weighed down by executive imbeciles, shackled to private sector leeches, and lack the means to craft decent policy wherever it may be felt such policy departs from the in situ ideology.

          • Fantastically put! I certainly forgot about those appropriately ‘motivated’ to be the team players or the future…

          • The far right moron luvvy hijack club

            Whatever it is you are doing Gunna you are wasted.

            You should be the official public service historian.

            There would be things I would add, but I would start there.

          • bubbah buddhaMEMBER

            Superb summary. If they gave out prizes for wheel reinvention, gold stard would be achieved each time. The pendulum continually swings from carrot to stick and back every 2 to 4 years, dependant on how quickly each Senior Exec/Dep Sec gets bored with their lot, or which horse they backed in the two pony race. Your description of the current management types and their choice of kowtowing lackeys is very perceptive, an inside view. Public service management used to be terrified of PS Unions, now they are just filled with softhanded minority focused multi-lettered Star Wars Cantina dartboardhead social justice warrior types focused on their own drum. Boat rocking is a quick path to the basement storeroom……a jaded degraded Frank (with a steady paycheck)

          • innocent bystander

            Can only agree.
            Which is why I find it amazing that no one seems to think that this is what is going on in Public Health during these pandemic times. You know, those dudes and dudettes fronting the media every day.

          • Jesus wept…I am struggling here, I am an older bloke, managing a farm, doing the right things, shopping locally, giving back to my community, like my old man, and his before…What do we stand for anymore? What did our fallen stand for? Not this bloody malarkey, I tell you right here and now.
            A man knew what he stood for…Not this scab culture, this stripping of peoples rights…By God, there will be a lot of people, not just in Australia, but world wide caught on the wrong side of this…I lend to you all here, a few simple words from my old man….A man, looks at himself in the mirror each morning, he looks at himself in the eyes, does he like what he sees there?…Its not hard..heh?…

      • Dr Coatsworth’s specialisation was actually proctology- only condition is he only works in the Liberal party and must use his nose. Strange guy.

  2. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    China … What’s left to save what ? …

    Inside the Evergrande collapse and its major impacts on Australia … Tarric Brooker … News Com Au

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/inside-the-evergrande-collapse-and-its-major-impacts-on-australia/news-story/70ec215921b5e6f0e5291e72b739d506

    Developers Drop as They Rush to Raise Cash: Evergrande Update …. Bloomberg

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-15/sunac-china-gets-953-million-from-share-sale-evergrande-update

    China Home Market Woes Deepen as Prices, Sales Fall Further … Bloomberg

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-15/china-home-market-slump-deepens-as-prices-fall-for-second-month?srnd=premium-asia

    Next Evergrande? $900 Billion in debt, 24 million loss per day, the highest of its kind in the world (High speed rail) … China Insight … Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eLCa6Vl7EeQ&t=2s

    • We sold the pitchforks mate, and even if we did have them, not many would know how to use them. As for the torches, have you seen the fuel prices lately?

    • Even StevenMEMBER

      Current generation is soft or uninformed (possibly both). I am angry. And I’m not even impacted. If I was I would have made it my life mission to bring attention to this national atrocity.

      Politicians, media and voters have all conspired to bring about this disgrace. I would build, build, build housing, pay scant attention to NIMBY resistance, and drive prices down. When we have a definitive surplus oversupply of housing situation, I’d build some more just to put a bullet in the head of this monstrosity.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        All new green field land developments and rezoned areas for higher density should have a min of 10% social housing requirement.
        The govie should also be upgrading their stock in established areas.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Hey, one protest at a time. Still got to get past the anti-Dan stuff yet.

      Wait on, other states aren’t protesting Dan. Why aren’t they in the streets with the flaming pitchforks?

      • Front page of the NT times was pushing the vaccine line today. It was highlighting how few members of the workforces affected hadn’t had their jabs. News Corp seems kind of, maybe, reluctantly tolerating of Labor up here. (I’m going to put it out there that the previous lot were worse than Newman in QLD. A book was written which, I’ve been told, only skims the surface of the absolute sh1tf*ckery that they were getting up to.)

    • From the article, ‘The stark admission comes as policymakers examine the tax, regulation, and supply issues driving wild price growth.’.
      Oh look they are examining. Wow there must be some change coming. “Ooh look there’s the tax, regulation and supply (but not demand) issues. Oooooh look at them. I even have some stick figures to represent. Examine them. No! Don’t touch them! Think of the bank investors!”.

      • I’m not even sure which analogy to use now.. All of them?

        Crocodile tears, wet lettuce leaf, finding one’s way out of a wet paper bag etc..

  3. Responding to zarathustar further up…

    Why would they? What appreciable difference could that make? The fact is that 1/3 of households own their home outright, 1/3 own with a mortgage and the rest rent. While that situation persists the policy status quo will persist – there’s no votes in changing it. Things have to get much worse before they can possibly get better.

    As Leith often says we live in a property narco state.

  4. Did you know that Bez from the Happy Mondays ran for government?
    https://youtu.be/vZZFW27bSuI
    Maybe the Australian gov can be improved by being forced to attend a 5 day acid house party and needing to be made to find their own way to stay awake the whole time.

  5. Mondays are boring until New York open hits. Markets just flop around. I pretty much have a long weekend until Monday 10pm.

  6. In a matter of hours, Queensland will open to thousands of people who have waited months to enter.
    https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/queensland-reopens-to-citizens-as-state-hits-70-per-cent-double-dose-vaccination/news-story/9c6871b722e02dccb7d2282393f4ebc5

    Fck me. Its a stampede to get out of NSW / VIC.

    So NSW/VIC used migration to prop itself up. Thats translated into massive debt levels and now everyone’s escaping the states that are about to be drowning in debt.

    So basically, this will destroy QLD economy as well… and drive us further into debt. It’ll destroy the state culturally as well.

    All Im seeing is high house prices and high debt.

    If Leith is right and this can continue for another 10 years, then Australia must be sitting at -5% interest rates by then? There is no way Australias going to remain solvent or that our water supplys are going to last through all of this.

  7. Just saw a TV ad for laundry detergent where the household mum doing the washing was wearing a fcking hijab.

    This country is so r00ted.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      At least most of them aspire to being a household mum still !! They could have always used a homo.

    • Naw LSWCHP ….. that was when they brought the black cattle [Santa Gertrudis] in and shifted away from pommy cattle …

      Friends close relative did it an after that no one would speak to him back in the day … just not right …

    • Am I missing something? You’re not allowed to do washing with headwear? Can I at least wear a hat when hanging it up and if it is hot and sunny outside? And what shoes are appropriate? I’ve been known to wear sandals, Crocs, thongs, joggers, steel caps, doc martens and to even let my dainty little toes touch the ground.

      Have I been doing it wrong all this time?

      • Even StevenMEMBER

        The only thing that annoys me is completely disproportionate representation. Why do every one in two ads have a gay couple? (or so it seems). I know gay couples spend more than other demographic groups… But MULTIPLE times more? I think not.

        As for the hijab – can’t say I’ve seen too many ads with hijabs so that’s cool with me. But if start seeing them in every second ad, me not happy. Same reason. Can’t stand BS.

    • bubbah buddhaMEMBER

      Its when the shampoo ads contain women wearing head scarfs flicking their censored unseen shiney sinful forbidden tresses that its time to start worrying…Because Im worth it!! *(with permission from my husband and immediate male relatives)