ALP stretches election winning lead over Coalition

Anthony Albanese’s Australian Labor Party (ALP) has stretched its two-party preferred lead over Scott Morrison’s Coalition, according to the latest Roy Morgan polling:

ALP support is now at 55.5% (up 2% points since early November) cf. L-NP on 44.5% (down 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted over the last two weekends.

This is the largest two-party preferred lead held by the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election and exceeds the the ALP’s lead during the height of the ‘2020 Bushfires Crisis’ (ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%).

The swing to the ALP came as there have been growing protests around Australia against vaccine mandates being introduced by various State Governments. This week several Government members have threatened to abstain from voting on new legislation until the Federal Government confronts the issues of vaccine mandates.

The result also comes after Prime Minister Scott Morrison returned from the G20 summit in Rome and then the United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26). Morrison has been accused of doing the bare minimum at COP26 by committing to a target of “Net Zero” carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 and clearly the trip failed to produce any ‘bounce’ in electoral support.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be elected with a similar margin to that won by Malcolm Fraser at the 1975 Federal Election (L-NCP 55.7% cf. ALP 44.3%)…

Primary Voting Intention for the L-NP and ALP now level on 35.5%

Primary support for the L-NP fell 1% point to 35.5% in late November and is now level with the ALP which increased 0.5% points to 35.5% and support for the Greens was up 0.5% points to 12%.

Support for One Nation was up by 0.5% points to 3.5% while support for Independents/Others was down by the same amount, down by 0.5% points to 13.5%.

Voting Intention by State shows the ALP leading in all six States – biggest lead in Victoria

Voting analysis by State shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in all six States – even Queensland. In a concerning sign for the Government the ALP’s biggest leads are in Victoria and NSW.

The ALP enjoys a large lead in Victoria on 58% (up 3% points since early November) compared to the L-NP on 42% (down 3% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a swing of 4.9% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP’s improvement in Victoria comes after large protests against the Andrews Government on a range of issues including new legislation on ‘extraordinary’ powers for the Premier to declare a pandemic, the Andrews’ Government enforcement of vaccine mandates and tough restrictions on Victorians who are choosing to remain unvaccinated against COVID-19.

The ALP has stretched its lead in NSW in line with the national trend over the last two weeks. The ALP is now on 55.5% (up 2% points since early November) compared to the L-NP on 44.5% (up 2% points). This result represents a swing of 7.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

There has been a significant swing to the ALP in Queensland with the party now ahead on a two-party preferred basis on 51.5% (up 4.5% points since early November) compared to the LNP on 48.5% (down 4.5% points). This result represents a swing of 9.9% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The situation in Western Australia is unchanged on early November with the ALP on 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5% on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a massive swing of 9.1% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

In South Australia the ALP is on 55.5% (down 2% points since early November) well ahead of the L-NP on 44.5% (up 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This represents a swing of 4.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The ALP leads in Tasmania with the ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47% – however, this represents a swing of 3% points to the L-NP since the 2019 Federal Election…

Karma is catching up with the ‘Liar from the Shire’.

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