Victorian COVID cases soar before reopening

As Melbourne prepares to exit lockdown tonight, Victoria recorded a whopping 2232 new locally acquired COVID cases and 12 deaths:

NSW by comparison recorded 372 new locally acquired COVID cases and one death.

The next chart plots the rise in daily cases across both states:

The next chart plots active cases across both jurisdictions:

A whopping 2.81% of tests in VIC over the past 24 hours came back positive, according to COVIDBaseAU:

Victoria’s Reff is at 1.01:

By comparison, only 0.43% of tests in NSW came back positive:

And NSW’s Reff is only at 0.72:

It will be interesting watching how Victoria’s cases respond as Melbourne reopens.

Unconventional Economist
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  1. Clearly, when the double dose vaccination regime was announced no one was even considering that you may need a top up. Now, it seems inevitable that a third dose is required to maintain a lower ability to transmit Covid. Again, there is no discussion about if a fourth jab will be required to maintain the best chance of not transmitting and not killing granny.

    Clearly to maintain optimal protection and the lowest possibility of transmission you would need to be jabbed every 3-6 months. Is this acceptable? Do we know any impacts of having a perpetual heightened immune system due to the effects of the vaccine?

    Thankfully Covid doesn’t impact children as much or this would be a very different conversation. But, how can we expect kids to be under the same vaccine regime and the unknown impacts to them just to protect granny at all costs. Shouldn’t the old protect the young rather than jamming them with experimental drugs?

    If you don’t take your booster you will just be equally complicit and selfish as the unvacced after a few months from your last vaccine in terms of transmissibility.

    What are your thoughts?

      • It is a moral question each vaccinated person needs to ask themselves, are you willing to be vaccinated in perpetuity to maintain the same standard as being immediatley double dossed to minimise the risk of transmission?

        I bet the majority of people will say no.

    • C'est de la folieMEMBER

      My current read is this……

      At the moment we know the vaccines have a window and a duration beyond which they cease to be all that effective of about 6 months.

      Someone real soon will not just be mandating not just vaccinations but rolling 6 month booster shots.  Anyone who had their second shot of vaccine earlier than May is already due.

      Given that there is ample evidence the AZ and Pfizer vaccines have significant side effects for some to many people (I know people who have spent time in care after getting a vaccine, I know a woman who spent a week in bed after the second hit of Pfizer) and that some governments in Europe are halting use of the Moderna because of fears it is triggering heart issues, we can expect a significant number of people to be reluctant about booster shots. 

      This will become an incredibly ‘live’ issue real soon is my guess, and I assume awareness of that is why ScoMo would want to go early and behind some of the talk of an imminent election announcement for early December.

      If an election is delayed beyond December (6 months after people in June had their second shot)  then we can potentially anticipate that going into next year – with the Chinese financial system Evergrande implosion leading to questions about Australias macro settings) then there is increased likelihood that as the weather actually cools into next year, and the virus does actually get seasonality behind it again, then a number of Australians may deduce that all the rigmarole about vaccinations has sold them a something of a pup – and that they can and will still get the virus and pass it on – and the environment in which they will still be getting the virus and passing it on will be the cooling months on the glide into next winter.  Let’s say end of March onwards.

      At that point a number of people will be peeved when they think that had a little effort been made to continue keeping the virus out of Australia then they would be at considerably less risk than they will be at that point.   ScoMo was front and square in the getting the virus in school – to ‘’open up’ and get those tourists and students back on the planes.

      If he has to go to the electorate against a backdrop of rising numbers of previously vaccinated Covid cases he may as well chain himself to a concrete block and toss the block into a sewerage pond.  

      • Reus's large MEMBER

        Let’s go with some of the facts that you mentioned and most people don’t understand

        1. Vaccinated people still catch and transmit the whuflu with the same viral load as the un-vaccinated, there are many studies from Israel and the UK attesting to this.
        2. Vaccines are only effective for about 6 months, again studies in Israel and the UK confirm this.
        3. Booster shots have already been ordered and are in the process of being supplied, Australia has 125 million doses of the vaccines ordered
        4. More countries are halting vaccine rollouts for under 30’s due to adverse reactions, mainly being heart issues, notably with all vaccines.

        If we wanted to keep this out we missed our chance, we are going to have to live with whuflu and it’s mutations as the powers that be don’t answer to the populace they answer to the 1% who want open borders and immigration.

        • Keeping it out is a pipedream. Covid zero is unachievable and we have wasted two years figuring that out. Vaccine hesitancy will increase to the point that vaccines mandates will be dropped. Is there a market in ivermectin futures?

      • There does appear to be lasting immunity for younger people, I believe it’s older people who are more at risk after 6months and may require booster shots. The rest I agree, this live with the virus nonsense may just be something we regret (and by we I mean Joe 6 pack, not the sociopaths in charge) come next winter.

        • https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1023849/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_40.pdf

          Based on England, check out page 18 for deaths between 0-39. That is the crux of my whole personal position (as I am relatively young). Whether you are vaxxed on unvacced aged between 0-39 you are not going to die from COVID. I would take my risk with getting COVID and being hospitalised rather than being vaccinated with the many unknowns.

          If the vaccine stopped me from spreading the disease then I would get the jab but without it even performing that function then what’s the point? Granny can get the vaccination and let fate decide the outcome rather than pumping experimental substances every 6 months into the youth and their children to simply reduce transmission. Does that transmission reduction only work when walking past someone? What If I spend the whole day with Granny does that transmission fall to 0 because you are spending so much time with them. All questions that even this website who asks tough questions on many areas won’t ask as they are afraid of the answer.

        • Reus's large MEMBER

          Data says otherwise, according to the latest UK data it appears that the the wane in effectiveness lines up with the rollout program where it went to the elderly first, from the data it appears that you are “un-vaccinated” after around 6 months and some studies are suggesting that ADE could be raising it’s head as it seems that the vaccinated in the oldest injected categories are now catching whuflu in greater numbers per 100k than the un-vaccinated, being there is a delay in the deaths by 30-60 days it will be interesting to see what develops there.

      • I am reminded of Ursula LeGuin’s story about Omelas. This little jewel of an imaginary city had its splendor and wealth mysteriously based on the suffering of a child who was being tortured in a cellar. At one time or another, everyone who lived in the city was taken to see the child. Most went back to their previous lives, but there were some who walked away from Omelas.

        Most Australian states are keeping Covid out, so it is not impossible and not too disruptive to ordinary people, as in WA, where their premier was reelected by a landslide, just inconvenient for some, who had been profiting from the population Ponzi, don’t want to change careers, or don’t want their holidays or visits from or with overseas family members to be burdened with quarantine requirements.

        A Brazilian congressional inquiry wants their president, Jair Bolsonaro, put on trial for crimes against humanity in relation to his handling of the pandemic

        https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/20/jair-bolsonaro-crimes-against-humanity-inquiry

        Perhaps an idea we could use here?

    • Every change that is being made is being introduced incrementally, as the thin edge of the wedge. It’s not a stretch to say that it’s being done systematically across the country – a mandate here, a restriction there, a ‘passport'(movement permit) there, a quarantine camp here, a police checkpoint there, a brutal crushing of a protest here, a politician being barred from parliament there – and similarly in different jurisdictions across the globe. No state has flipped and gone balls-to-the-wall totalitarian overnight, it’s just gentle incremental two steps forward, with an ever so rare baby step back to release the pressure valve, but ultimately inexorably progressing forwards towards a point of no return – the ‘new normal’. Is this what we want? Did we vote?

      On the topic of claims of vaccine safety and under-reporting of adverse effects – an interesting set of letters in the BMJ in 2010 regarding kids’ flu vaccines where it’s pointed out in the last letter that according to adverse effect reporting data, the rate of Kawasaki’s disease following vaccines is 0.12 per 100,000 child-years, 1% that of the background rate in the community of 12-14 per 100,000 child-years, suggesting adverse effects are vastly under reported.
      https://www.bmj.com/content/340/bmj.c2994/rapid-responses

    • No when it was announced it was well understood that two critical factors existed to virtually guarantee 2nd gen vaccines and/or boosters.

      First of all the over 50s ability to generate a robust immune response is alot lower than a 20 years old.

      Secondly, viruses mutate reducing the vaccine effectiveness over time. Though at some stage mutations should slow and stop as it reaches it optimal ability to spread

      Add to this both AZ and Pfizer err’d on a less effect vaccine but a safer one. AZ by deciding to use an adenovirus carrier tech from the 70s and Pfizer by the qty and properties of its product. Comparing directly to Moderna it has a third of the active ingredient.

      I was under the impression that the 1st wave of vaccines were about getting aggregate numbers down, reducing deaths and mutation opportunities longer term. Meanwhile the virus approaches its fittest state and you reformulate your vaccines for virus v4.1. Looking at the UK now we can already see a Delta+ spreading with an estimated advantage of around 10 or 15%.

      Not sure if kids are being vaxx’d for granny. Its systemic right, if the virus is so contagious that school drop off, kids mixing, and essential on site work sustains it above an rEff of 1, what then. With Vaccines reducing transmission by half they are the biggest impact to Reff there is. Distance and Masks are the only other Business as Usual(ish) policies left. Having an extra 15% of the population covered with that reduced spread chance added to the fact they are the most mobile cohort is a huge deal. Measures we make now aren’t about Gran, there’re about the operational capacity of the healthcare system and the economy at large. So if anything children are being sacrificed at the temple of capitalism.

      For the under 50s boosters it doesn’t look like a necessity (from a personal hospitalisation pov) to have a booster from the research I’ve seen. That measured a slight waning in effectiveness but was relatively marginal and slowed. From memory that study stopped at 8 months, which may be a real world barrier. Boosters like children will be about aggregate numbers and holding the flight pattern until the arsenal is better stocked. With anti virals and other therapeutics becoming available in 2022 and Northern hemisphere winter testing the current response we’ll know more in time to act.

      • ‘With anti virals and other therapeutics becoming available in 2022 and Northern hemisphere winter testing the current response we’ll know more in time to act.’

        This is the option put to the youth, pump yourself with a substance that we know can cause short term side effects and has unknown medium and long term effects to get past Christmas 2021 and early 2022. After that you propbably won’t need a booster because if you get COVID we will have sufficent therapeutics to reduce its impacts.

        Give up a few more months of total freedoms seems like a small price to pay. But there is lockdown exhaustion and going with the herd can never be wrong seems to be the position.

        • Is there any MDMA in your molly? LSD in your NBOMes? Fentanyl in your smack? Kids are used to crap products made by people putting profit above performance. They’ll make their choices as we all do. The optimal path was taken off the menu by the neo liberals worldwide by April 2020. Australia tried its best in July to follow suit but the renegade labour states didn’t follow the script.

    • Far far too much emphasis on antibody levels, the whole point of a vaccine is to provide acquired immunity via memory B cells and associated pathways.
      I’ll be buggered if I am getting a 6 monthly ‘booster’ of the exact same vaccine that we already know is not sterilising.
      Thats not how the immune system works, if it requires this many boosters for a virus that doesn’t mutate all that much compared to Influenza I*V (HxNx) class of viruses then it should not be called a vaccine.
      Time for prophylactic or early onset symptom treatments.

  2. At what point will NSW (and VIC presumably later) stop reporting on case numbers and swap to hospitalisations and mortality? I am somewhat surprised that NSW has not stopped openly reporting case numbers after it hit 80% double dose vaccinations (instead burying it at the back of a once-weekly report or something). I would have thought it inevitable that cases would rise after restrictions were lifted and I’m surprised the new NSW government is willing to keep tweeting case numbers daily rather than ride on the joy of case numbers falling consistently through to the end of restrictions and then try to leave it at that, citing it now being appropriate only to report on hospitalisations rather than report on cases going back up and losing much of the political gain of having hit targets, ended lockdowns and reduced case numbers at the same time..

  3. Why do you want to stop the leading indicator? Note that there can be no ‘swap’ to hospitalisations and mortality because these are already reported.

  4. The conversation will change soon…..at the moment the virus is rampaging through Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey and Russia with signs that it is starting to penetrate Poland now. Wet weather in Europe has started but not winter yet and latest figures for France and Denmark are ominous as well. We all know what is happening in the UK.

    All the happy talk we are hearing lately will seem silly all of a sudden. The core of the problem is that the response the body mounts to this virus both naturally and from vaccines takes from 5 to 8 days to develop…….by this time Delta has been and gone to its next victim

    https://twitter.com/hjelle_brian/status/1448717763040595984

    There is no bar to re-infection in the future and any time you get it it takes years off your life expectancy. There is only eradication and ” let it rip ” in these circumstances…..anything in between ends up as ” let it rip “in time. Our credit based financial system won’t survive a decade of this…..people are already starting to question the sacred debt.

    • “Downing Street has insisted there was “absolutely no plan” – at the moment – to introduce measures such as face masks and working from home – known as the government’s Plan B.”

      Don’t understand the rush back to the office. Working from home amongst people like myself who are keyboard jockeys is a net benefit productivity wise, and obviously commuting, especially on PT, to a central office you share with people from suburbs on the other side of town you would normally only get to very rarely hugely increases mixing and therefore transmission.
      With the cost benefit equation skewed in favour of working from home for everyone who can, just leave it alone.
      Governments in Australia seem also to be pushing hard for a return to the office, so more people can catch covid get hospitalised and die while achieving no other benefit.

      In the mean time, how p ssed off would you be as a parent whose kids have missed out on 10s of weeks of face to face school to be forced back to the office where you got covid, brought it home and infected your kids who then missed out on another few weeks of school getting better.

      • ‘Governments in Australia seem also to be pushing hard for a return to the office, so more people can catch covid get hospitalised and die while achieving no other benefit.’

        The benefits are maintaining asset values and rents of these large office buildings that are owned by their donners or entities that have a nice 7 figure gig waiting for them after public office.

        • Knowing that the beneficiary is a commercial landlord (and I’d already guessed that) doesn’t make me feel any better about potentially infecting my kid and making them miss more school.

  5. So is anyone taking their vitamins as a precaution and to boost their immune system?

    Vitamin D: 5000 – 10 000iu daily, ideally with a fatty meal as Vitamin D is fat soluble.
    Vitamin D is also best taken with Vitamin K (in MK-7 form or MK-4, the former probably being better than the latter) so as to avoid calcification of arteries etc. and so that Calcium is transported to the bones (Don’t take my word for it; use your Google-Fu)
    Zinc supplementation.
    At least 1000mg of Vitamin C per day.