Victorian COVID cases dive

Victoria has recorded another sharp fall in new COVID cases.

Over the past 24 hours, 1466 locally acquired COVID cases were recorded – down heavily from the peak of 1965 recorded on Saturday:

Another eight deaths were also recorded.

The next chart shows the sharp fall in daily cases:

However, active cases continue to rise:

Most importantly, Victoria’s Reff is trending downward, now at 1.18, meaning cases should grow at a slower rate:

Some brighter news for us locked-down Melburnians.

Unconventional Economist
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        • No

          So why would cases finally start to turn when people are finally done with lockdown and say “screw it”? Why didn’t it turn early on when people were being more compliant?

          Case numbers drive policy decisions
          Policy decisions don’t drive numbers.

          • TheLambKingMEMBER

            They are turning because of the vaccination numbers!!!! NSW went hard vaccinating the LGA’s of concern (with the rest of Australia’s vaccines) – while Vic seems to be doing the opposite. The vaccination rates in our high case areas are still terrible – 50%-60% first does

            But after 2 years of this, surely we know to not trust Monday or Tuesday numbers!!!!!! 🙁

          • The vaccination rates in our high case areas are still terrible – 50%-60% first does

            Do you have examples?

            I’m seeing Hume as probably the worst effected LGA in the first phase this outbreak at 86% first dose, 48% 2nd dose. Similarly Brimbank 83% 1st, 50% 2nd.
            After the late September surge, Casey and Dandenong seem to have been worst effected, and maybe you’d expect them to be behind the western suburbs because the early outbreak wasn’t as bad there. Even so, Case is at 89% 1st dose, 54% 2nd dose and Dandenong is at 84% 1st dose, 48% 2nd dose.

            Bottom 3 are Yarra, Port Philip and Melbourne, with Melbourne lowest 1st dose at 70%, but I don’t remember any of those LGAs being mentioned as having major case numbers.

          • Vax reduces serious disease. Significantly.

            Hence Victoria’s CFR in 20 was ~ 3%. Across the 2 years, Vic CFR has dropped to 1.6% reflecting the effect of the vax reducing serious disease this year.

            NSW overall CFR is 0.6% – reflecting the fact there were few NSW cases in 2020.

            But that is all disease severity. Which is different to case numbers and the fact this comes in waves (as did the ‘flu 100 years ago).

          • TheLambKingMEMBER

            So why did they all turn in 2020? Everywhere. Even Victoria. Pre-vax.

            1. Hard lockdowns
            2. Alpha strain was MUCH less contagious. Alpha needed close, closed contact for 10+ minutes. Delta spreads with casual contact and has happened outdoors (lining up to get into sport)

            But that is all disease severity. Which is different to case numbers and the fact this comes in waves (as did the ‘flu 100 years ago).

            Are you saying, even in the face of mountains of evidence, that vaccinations are not also reducing transmission?

          • It turned in all USA states. Regardless of stringency of measures.
            Delta (used to be called Indian) turned in India. Do you think they did a hard lockdown?

            No. I’m saying that all the evidence is that vax does not suppress transmission sufficiently to stop cases increasing. Delta has substantially escaped the vax with respect to transmission ( not severity). Remember the original vax brief was to significantly reduce disease severity. They have succeeded.
            The CDC is recommended boosters. Plus masks etc even for vax patients. What does that tell you?
            Which is why everyone is now going for boosters.

            Interesting article in Nature

  1. Cases everywhere often drop over a weekend, although this pattern isn’t particularly evident in the Victorian data. So will see what happens in the next few days. But my sense is that Victoria is likely close to if not seen the top.

    Guess all those protests and grand final parties cold not prevent the wave stopping and then going out.

    So what’s the next dangerous super spreader event? Melbourne Cup? Schoolies? Christmas with relatives?

  2. Note Victorian deaths few now (unfortunately) trending up and higher than NSW.

    Lag between infected and sick, and between sick and deterioration, and between deterioration and death.

    The snake (state) has eaten the pig (cases), and the pig now needs to work its way through the snake.

  3. Basically Govt policy had nothing to do with this. people have been breaking the rules more than ever and cases are now dropping. Our leaders have literally no clue what’s going on but am sure they will take credit for its success.

    • I think they probably are accounting for recoveries properly – 1466 new cases but active cases up by 600, presumably meaning ~800 recoveries, about what new cases were running at 3 weeks ago.

        • If they’re doing it properly via testing it will be noisy – sometimes it will look like the lag is more than 3 weeks, sometimes less. If it moves in lock step, I guess they’re doing it the NSW way.

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