Victorian COVID cases climb to new pandemic high

Victoria has recorded a record high 1838 locally acquired COVID cases over the past 24 hours alongside five deaths:

The next chart plots the surge in daily cases:

Victorian cases continue to soar above NSW’s:

Whereas active cases across Victoria have soared to 16,823:

Finally. Victoria’s Reff has risen to 1.29, according to COVIDBaseAU:

Because Victoria’s Reff is above 1.0, this suggests cases will continue to rise.

Unconventional Economist
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Comments

    • kiwikarynMEMBER

      Thats optimistic. Singapore is up 3,500 daily infections. And thats with social interactions limited to just 2 people.

      • Frank DrebinMEMBER

        Hopefully it does get like Singapore with 98% of positive cases reporting no or minimal symptoms.

        85% double vaccinated population though. We are probably 6 weeks away from that in Victoria.

  1. Solo cinqo? Deja vu. Another groundhog day in VIC.
    Im Norden von Eden it’s like another Robottenforderung Judenverfolgung.

  2. I reckon the Victorian case numbers will go up for a bit, then they’ll go down. It seems to be how it goes.

    • The brontosaurus is thin up one end, much, much thicker in the middle, and then thin up the other end. Ahem

      • That pretty much sums it up.

        Or to put it a little more clearly, no matter what we do the outbreaks seem to flourish and then diminish of their own volition. Some have suggested that the outbreaks can be modelled by a Gomperz distribution, which models all sorts of natural phenomena. This is nice, but doesn’t really help, because we don’t know yet what the factors are that make the curve eventually roll over.

        I’m pretty sure though, that at some point the Vic outbreak will roll over as the NSW one has, or appears to have done, assuming the figures are valid.

  3. yep all thanks to those a$$holes chucking a wobbly on the streets 2 weeks ago. Aided and abetted by self-serving pr1cks like Yemeni and Ruksan who are all about promoting their own brand.

    • Putting aside whether they were idiots on not…. Is there any evidence that they were super spreaders, they or any other large protest over the last 2 years? Because so far, evidence for ‘super spreader events’ that involve large outdoor gatherings tends to be pretty minimal, at least when you are dealing with a population that doesn’t have huge infection levels. A global air quality expert was asked about it on Q&A a few weeks back and essentially said the risk is quite minimal compared to other settings.

      We don’t even need to discuss the data, given the fact there has been minimal reporting on it beyond the initial political/media hyperbole regarding the events it is not an unreasonable assumption that no/very limited spread exists. Why? because if the opposite where true, it would have been the leading story ad nausea across every media outlet not to mention every govt presser.

      Actual confirmed ‘super spreader events’ are almost always smaller indoor gatherings, house parties, weddings, funerals or food service. Those that have been outdoors were sporting events (which although, “outdoor” have similar characteristics to indoor events due to density).


      • Those that have been outdoors were sporting events (which although, “outdoor” have similar characteristics to indoor events due to density).

        Intuitively you might imagine that the dynamics of a large-ish protest in a city street where people are hemmed in by buildings on a couple of sides would have a similar dynamic to a crowd in a stadium. Although equally the number of factors at play is probably as long your arm.

        • Agreed, no expert here, simply pointing out at that the outcomes don’t seem to have matched what would make conceptual sense, but that doesn’t stop the hype and propaganda around it.

          Re: stadium sports vs protests, my guess is that for the former, you spend far more time close proximity to, seated for long periods (vs walking / running around streets and parks), bathrooms ques, beverage ques, entry ques, funnelling through entry ways and stairwells with thousands of others….. all more dense that a main road or park and that potentially = more indoor like conditions for transmission?

      • reusachtigeMEMBER

        Nah, these blokes just want to blame the blokes that used to beat them up at school for being arrogant know-it-alls!

  4. Mr SquiggleMEMBER

    …..and right on cue…..real estate agents have started texting me to say I can travel outside my bubble for inspections

    • Charles MartinMEMBER

      hahaha, fckn leaches
      Saw a bunch of them yesterday at my local cafe having quite an animated discussion. They looked ready to help people achieve their dreams.

      • They had split-up into two groups and were first loudly arguing, which then it led to pushing and shoving. Eventually the fight spilled out onto the street and involved tables being up-ended and chairs broken over heads.

        One group held the view that property doubles every 7 years, whereas the opposing group were adamant that it doubles every 10 years.

  5. Most locked down city World record
    Most Covid deaths Aust record
    Highest Covid case fatality rate Aust record
    Highest Covid cases per day Aust record (and 2nd place)
    Most authoritarian government
    Most violent police action – which has led to demonstrations in NYC and Poland (like the ones for HK and Tibet)

    But this is all the fault of Canberra. Or NSW. Or someone. But not Vic gov.
    Yeah right.

    • Andrews has apparently declared that all essential workers have to be vaxxed if they are not WFH. This means that some of my colleagues in Victoria who are on the tools and can’t WFH are now facing the choice of being vaxxed or losing their jobs.

      Fck that smug, deranged, tyrannical cnt. I wish nothing but bad things for him for the rest of his miserable and hopefully short life.

    • Well that’s interesting. Some of the publications out there are very dodgy, but this seems like credible data in a credible journal.

      • My gut feel (and that’s all it is) is that this paper is largely right.

        There is a bit of a confounders. States / countries that can or do invest in vax programs likely do so for testing as well.

        Similarly, people who got vaxed are more likely to get tested that those that didn’t bother to get vaxed.

        Conversely, some places changed the definition of Covid. If not vaccinated, a positive PCR in an asymptomatic person was a case. If vaccinated, a positive PCR in an asymptomatic person was not a case – only if symptoms.

    • The spread is through sub-populations, not perfect distributions.
      So it’s hardly surprising that you get spread when you have no immunity amoungst children, low immunity in younger workers due to vaccine access, and declining immunity in the elderly with poor immune systems.
      Then there is the numberwang of 80% of 16+ people

      • And sampling such a small time window – seven days – means you are getting more noise than signal.

        • Seven days across sixty-eight countries should detect plenty of signal, especially 50% reduction in spread.

          • Honestly 68 isn’t a big number for this kind of data. If you made a list of all the things that might effect how covid spreads in a country – weather, population density, the existence of other restrictions, public holidays, school holidays, age and gender profile of population etc etc – with 68 data points you’d be looking at negative degrees of freedom.

          • 68 countries is more than one-third of the whole member states of the United Nations. Calling the study 68 data points is absurdly reductive, and suggests to me that you might dislike the findings more than you dislike the study.

    • High cases and high vaccination rates….who cares. High cases and low vaccination….problem. Cases, viewed in isolation are meaningless.

      Steve made a good clarification point for me yesterday re CFR vs IFR. I assume the best way to get IFR is to random sample populations and test for antibodies or infection not reported. Don’t believe anywhere in Australia has done this, which seems a bit silly because its much more accurate and would better inform policy decisions.

      • People dying and subsequently testing positive for covid will be a good indication – has happened in NSW.

  6. Reus's large MEMBER

    Well it seems like the lockdowns and restrictions are a success, or maybe just Dictator Dan and his band of fcukwits are just totally useless at everything they do.

  7. NelsonMuntzMEMBER

    Melbourne, Gold Standard Let It Rip™ and world beating Lockdown Restrictions. *slow clap*