Victorian COVID cases break new record

Victoria’s COVID outbreak continues to worsen with the state recording another 1965 locally acquired COVID cases and five deaths:

It was the highest daily count recorded anywhere in Australia since the beginning of the pandemic, with Victoria’s daily cases also towering above NSW:

Victoria’s active cases have climbed to around 17,200:

A whopping 2.676% of Victoria’s tests over the past 24 hours came back positive, according to COVIDBaseAU:

Finally, Victoria’s Reff remains above 1.0 at 1.29, meaning cases should continue to rise:

What a disaster.

Unconventional Economist
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Comments

    • We don’t have to worry too much about COVID long term. In young people it is less deadly than the flu.
      What this means is that there will eventually be a natural immunity build up over time in the community.
      The main problem with COVID is that it is more contagious than the flu. So more get COVID than the flu. Even so mortality due to COVID is just about zero(less than 1 in a million in US) according to the statistics among those less than 15 years old.
      https://freopp.org/comparing-the-risk-of-death-from-covid-19-vs-influenza-by-age-d33a1c76c198
      So I’d think that in 50 years time COVID could be just about as deadly as the common cold to the general population as all would have been exposed to it multiple times during their lives and should have some immunity when older.
      Something to look forward to…. no lockdowns if I get to be really old.

  1. Another Australian record. Brought to Victoria by an idiot so stupid he didn’t wear a mask walking to a press conference.

    Surely you Victorians have had enough.

    And don’t start about NSW getting more than it’s share of the vax. In the first half of the year, Victoria got more than its share.
    https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.theage.com.au/national/victoria/secret-vaccine-doses-for-nsw-well-not-exactly-20210908-p58py7.html
    Look at graph
    So for 6 months, Vic received a surplus per capita. Which seemed reasonable given their disastrous 2020.
    In June, they were getting more outright.

    Same here

    https://www.covid19data.com.au/vaccine-allocation

    NSW only received more when it had a substantial outbreak.

    Yet Victoria still entered winter dragging the chain on vax

    • Spot on Steve. NSW planned better in that they put priority on vaccinating high risk/case areas (e.g. Western Sydney).

      Victoria’s high risk/case areas like Hume, by contrast, have very low vax rates. Why wasn’t vaccine priority put there?

      It’s only this weekend that the Victorian Government is doing a vaccination blitz in these high risk/case areas. Why has the Victorian Government waited so long? Because it is incompetent.

      • I work in the epicentre of NSW outbreak.

        Those areas were subject to harsher restrictions. The clear message was
        1. You have to get your numbers down to have these additional restrictions removed
        2. We will prioritise vaccination for your area to help you achieve this.,

        Tough love.

        NSW pulled some Pfizer from regional NSW to prioritise the LGAs in trouble.

        Overall, NSW made better tactical use of what it had

      • Agree that Vic government was incompetent. But the vaccine is only the latest failure. Border control was the biggest one – after going through several lockdowns VIC government should of known better and been scared of any exposure risk. NSW people tend to put the focus on vaccines as the silver bullet when the numbers don’t lie – the states with the best economy, the most sporting events, and the best lifestyles are still the ones who kept it out.

        Any day you delay COVID is a good day and more lives you saved – not just from COVID but from other conditions the hospital system is able to diagnose/treat given that capacity. Many people may disagree with me; but for most of the middle and lower classes international travel is such a small price to pay – know quite a few people in this class that have never been overseas in their 30’s+. Given the amount they work they are often struggling with health as well in older age.

        Given all your lockdowns as soon as you heard cases were rising in NSW you should of shut the border hard. QLD, the other neighboring state did just that, so comparing apples to apples you can see the result. Yes climate is different, but I don’t think that has made the material impact here.

        That may of given more time for the vaccination to occur. You are a Labor state – the Feds were always going to prioritize, help, aid with funding NSW over you, QLD and WA for that matter. I’m sure the premiers even if they can’t state that politically know that too. Labor states are really “on their own” on this hence I think their precaution which may look irrational on the outside I think may makes sense. They see VIC and know what happens if they let it in.

        It seems like forever but the lockdown in VIC started a month or more after NSW. You still need 4 weeks more time to get jabbed to be on par with NSW. Given the rate of “jabs’ more than policy, etc its time that you guys needed. Yes there’s failures on the margin like vaccine allocation but in the grand scheme of things time is the biggest thing that you guys require. A lot of jabs can happen in 4 weeks. Borders are where the failure lies.

    • NSW received 500k extra doses based on population, Victoria is 150k behind by your own sources. Comprehension is a wonderful thing.
      UE Targeting is another furphy, dig into the age cohorts involved, the qty’s of pfizer on hand in Victoria and you’ll see it couldn’t happen.

      NSW received 500k of extra doses. It did sod all to help it self. Look at State by State AZ usage and you see Victoria was the most proactive state. The success you attribute to NSW is the Feds stepping in as only Scotty the PM of NSW can ..

      • Victoria
        Most locked down city in world
        Most Covid deaths in Australia
        Highest Covid CFR in Australia
        Most Covid cases in a day in Australia. Victoria also takes the Silver ad Bronze for this, but it’s far from over and Victoria will end up with a clean sweep of more than just the top 3.

        Victorian government needs to have a hard look at itself. Not much chance of that give the “collective amnesia”and “rolling assumptions” before the inquiry commissioned to establish what went wrong.

        If all Victoria is going to do is complain about vax share since July, ……. then it is not going to learn anything.

        • The Penske FileMEMBER

          Agree. There’s always plenty of opportunity to get vaccinated. There are no lines at Jeff’s shed in the arvo when I go past. The players simply aren’t listening to the coach.

        • A 650k difference in vax between states, a perfectly timed and targeted surge by the feds in 1 state and no/tiny access to surge in another. Details are crucial in logistics, its easy to get lost in the Macro UE.

          If we had a PM for Australia instead of the PM for NSW this wouldn’t have happened. Its the story of the pandemic. VIC should secede and leave the barbarians to their coal mines and rugby league. Peoples Republic of Hookturnistan?

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIN02CbEhZ8

          • A lot of Victorians seem happy that Dan is their leader. Hence #standwithdan

            And everyone outside Victoria is sure happy that Dan is Victoria’s leader.

            Guess its a win:win

          • FFS you have a vaccine production factory in your city churning our a million doses a week. Don’t complain about supply.

          • C'est de la folieMEMBER

            Completely agree with the very different responses VIC and NSW got from the Federal Government.

            But at the end of the day both ScoMo and Gladys had decided that Covid needed to be in Australia, rather than Australia being Covid free, so they brought it in and made sure it was so well embedded that it wasnt going to be eliminated.

            Therein lay the difference. In VIC, Dan Andrews was trying to minimise the risk to the people of the state from a health perspective, and reduce the risk of an overloaded health system. And if that meant locking down he was OK with going there for as long and as hard as he thought necessary while the risk of having a totally Covid free environment was possible.

            In NSW you had a leader who was known to be coming up for an ICAC appearance from some time ago. She could easily be talked into locking down ‘lite’ and that worked for the Federal Liberal party who could give her an out with a post Premier protection, enough Federal support to minimise any uncomfortable observations about the play of Covid in NSW, and a free pass mainstream media which has never gone within a bulls roar of asking how/why Gladys didnt lock down tight the moment the limo driver taking people from Kingsford Smith top the Sydney CBD was a known Covid candidate.

            Covid being embedded in Australia serves some useful purposes for some sections of Australia’s elite, the same way JobKeeper was designed and implemented to ensure that those sections got the juiciest morsels first and unquestionably. Andrews may or may not be a first class prick, or a wannabe dictator. For sure he sometimes comes across as a touch smug.

            But at the end of the day his failing is nothing other than failing to realise just how ugly the Federal and NSW government ‘leaderships’ actually are.

            They have driven the ‘get vaccinated or else’ mentality, and importing Covid to have it here in situ has driven that imperative.

            Currently we have Singapore and Israel and well vaccinated locations already starting to see their next wave. Singapore is tightening up again. When that happens in Australia – and from here we can possibly assume it wont be until the weather cools next year [and maybe ScoMo’s reticence to wait that long for a federal election] – and we have yet more lockdowns and yet more public reactions to mandates for booster shots which are currently looking like at least every six months, then there are going to be some serious questions asked……

            ….and they will start with what were the circumstances of the Covid virus gaining traction in Sydney in June 2021. And Gladys and ScoMo are going to be front and square for that question.

          • OK.Just one question.

            How long did you want to stay totally disconnected from the world? No family reunions. No tourism in or out. No business travel. No airfreight )those pilots have to stay somewhere before turning around – Delta got into Sydney from a FedEx pilot).. So, how long?

          • C'est de la folieMEMBER

            How long did you want to stay totally disconnected from the world?

            As long as it needs to be to ensure that the hospital system here doesnt face overloading. Isnt that why we have kept circa 45 thousand Australians locked out of their own country for 18 months? (notwithstanding that more than half the entries and exits dont seem to be Australians – but even they seem to point to Covid being potentially manageable without wholesale exposure to Covid in the community) with a government exhorting a vaccine ‘mandate’ which even according to your own linked BMJ article (on this page) obviously takes us nowhere as a management strategy.

            Public health logic of COVID-19 vaccinations
            https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2180/rr-4

            Money quotes here

            2. Does the vaccine protect others?

            For the vaccination to be altruistic – protect others – it must greatly reduce transmission. Leaving the ethics aside, we can question this impact:

            A. If the vaccine blocks transmission, does that help anyone?

            Only if the vulnerable others are not vaccinated, or their vaccination is poorly protective. Evidence suggests it is protective for at least for a few months once immunity is established.[20] So only those voluntarily unvaccinated, or ineligible for/unresponsive to vaccination, will significantly benefit, including children and those with rare contra-indications.[21]

            B. Does it block transmission?

            Despite early hopes, it does not. Vaccinated people who become infected have similar viral loads (similar infectiousness) as unvaccinated people.[20,22] But having less symptoms,[20] they may be less likely to self-isolate, potentially increasing risk to the vulnerable.

            C. What if almost everyone is vaccinated?

            Despite high hopes of gaining transmission-blocking ‘herd immunity’ through mass vaccination, this seems unachievable. In some circumstances, vaccination could promote infection.[23] Vaccinated people transmit the virus. Israel, Iceland, and the UK, with the vast majority of adults vaccinated, record relatively high continuing transmission.[24] Allowing non-vulnerable people to gain broader, longer-lasting post-infection immunity may protect the vulnerable more effectively and safely. This logic underpins the UK’s policy of not introducing varicella (chickenpox) immunization, preventing waning vaccine induced immunity from leading to more severe adult infection.

            So that has me thinking that even if we vaccinate the living shinola out of everyone – maybe 100% – then we will still be having lockdowns to prevent the hospital system from becoming overloaded. And that is before we get the messaging about booster shots every 6 months or so, and side effects [whatever they are] and new virus variants. I totally get the concept of lockdown fatigue, and see first hand some of the impacts involved. But the lockdowns have been to prevent something every bit as ugly, which we are still highly likely to get.

            If travel really was was the issue then there would have been serious quarantine facilities outside hotels in major CBDs ages ago and Darwin or Katherine or somewhere remote in WA turned into a transport hub – but there wasnt, was there. If there was, then all of that could have happened. But there wasnt because of?…. expense? while 130 Billion was splashed about to the corporate and tax avoiding world?

            You seem to live in this binary world where people like you get to travel or not, which means someone needed to import Covid or not. Is that you ScoMo?

          • “As long as it needs”
            Could be a very long time – the hospital system has been overloaded for decades, and taxpayers are happy to fund “just enough to get by. Industry has “just in time.” Healthcare has “just enough.”

            “but even they seem to point to Covid being potentially manageable without wholesale exposure to Covid in the community”
            Not quite sure what you mean here, but Aus has had a very low community disease burden by world standards.

            “with a government exhorting a vaccine ‘mandate’ which even according to your own linked BMJ article (on this page) obviously takes us nowhere as a management strategy.”
            The management strategy has to pivot towards clinically serious disease rather than cases.
            Biden and Fauci in January talked about eliminating transmission, but it hasn’t quite turned out that way – and most of us knew it. Flu shots don’t prevent all cases of influenza and eliminate it. They reduce the burden of serious disease. CDC and everyone else agrees reducing the burden of serious disease is all we can expect. So the politicians and top bureaucrats were overly optimistic or naive or lied. Deal with it.

            “If travel really was was the issue then there would have been serious quarantine facilities outside hotels in major CBDs ages ago and Darwin or Katherine or somewhere remote in WA turned into a transport hub – but there wasnt, was there.”
            There were not really anything pre-existing that could have been used as quarantine facilities – Christmas Island I guess, plus a few of the detention centres. But this comes with huge problems. 10% or so of C19 cases require hospitalisation. Katherine and Darwin could not have managed that caseload. Plus, can you imagine other states saying they were happy to accommodate them all and it become their problem. It wasn’t expense. It was NIMBY.
            NSW agreed to do the heavy lifting for the rest of the country so we could have some movement of passengers and freight. And it got lose – which was always going to happen sooner or later.

            “You seem to live in this binary world where people like you get to travel or not, which means someone needed to import Covid or not. Is that you ScoMo?”
            No, but I have sympathy for those needing to travel to visit family, to attend funerals, to keep their business running, or to get back home. It has always been our right to buy a passport and come and go as we please. That’s what living in a free country means. It’s a slippery slope when you start talking away long-held freedoms for “as long as it takes.”

            The bottom line? There are no good options here. Only the least bad options.

          • C'est de la folieMEMBER

            It has always been our right to buy a passport and come and go as we please. That’s what living in a free country means. It’s a slippery slope when you start talking away long-held freedoms for “as long as it takes.”

            Yeah well we have replaced your slippery slope for another involving ‘Vaccine mandates’ (with references to passports) for vaccines which dont work anywhere near as well as vaccines ordinarily in use, which mathematically dont go within a bulls roar of providing societal protection and are only a better than even chance of providing individual protection for 6 months or so, with every last person getting vaccinated signing a waiver for consequences for the government or the company making the vaccine, and every man jack of us QR coding in half a dozen times a day everywhere we go, and the incoming ‘booster’ requirements for that vaccine mandate. I went and got vaccinated, and have encouraged friends to do so to – but I think the whole thing is largely a fraud. If the whole Covid play is about ensuring freedom to go on trips then thats fine – even then the vast bulk of the funerals wouldnt be an issue if Gladys and ScoMo hadnt ensured Covid was in the country to start with, and the businesses are all in an economic bubble anyway – but ultimately that is about fragmenting social cohesion and the bonds and commitment to a greater good tying us together as a people.

            Enjoy your long held freedom. I will hold off on expectations of veracity and accountability and the ‘public good’. Your trip presumably wont take that long, but building back respect for our ‘elites’ and a preparedness to act for the greater good will take a lot longer.

          • The Travelling Phantom

            ^^ @ C’est de la folie
            I think it’s coming nice cousin, same views but presenting them in much better diplomatic way 🙂

          • C'est de la folieMEMBER

            “ultimately that is about fragmenting social cohesion and the bonds and commitment to a greater good tying us together as a people.”

            Now on that we agree. The intent is to persuade people the CCP way is better.
            https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3148797/how-pandemic-proves-chinas-digital-confucianism-superior-west

            Huh?

            …….are they getting trips?

            Or are you simply switching your theme from what is better for Australians to the shortcoming or whatever of some other punters elsewhere?

          • Steve – I agree that there are no “good options” and there needs to be a sacrifice somewhere. Its a question which group you prioritize/sympathize with that determines your preference IMO.

            For most of the middle class and under closed borders I argue is a better outcome with very little sacrifice. No virus, wage growth, lower migration, better environment, etc etc. It was all sunshines and roses. All the benefit of “culture, vibrancy, technology” doesn’t matter when you just want to keep a roof over your head and have a nice lifestyle. Globalisation I argue is blurring a lot of culture anyway making things less unique as time goes on.

            Conversely for the young skilled (not young lower/middle class who fit into the above category), reasonably affluent open borders is better. There’s little for them to lose being young, a world of opportunities is larger than their local country could ever be, and they have very little tying them down + are still reasonably healthy. Of course this changes once they have kids, etc – which is why many return to Australia at this point despite lower wages. Lifestyle and the “simple life” are often worth more than money.

            I’m in the former camp especially post COVID. For most people there is very little benefit to opening the borders other than some propoganda line of “we can’t be closed forever”. Why not? Or rather what’s the harm of a 14 day quarantine especially since the travelling types tend to be more affluent and can afford it anyway? It it allows both groups to get what they want with the least amount of “total sacrifice” to the economy, and some nice competitve advantage to Australia economically wise its the better move. I also don’t think COVID getting in was inevitable (i.e. the limo driver/flight crew was obviously not actual quarantine).

            I agree with C’est de la folie since other countries are getting problems, but as you note are sweeping it under the rug (e.g. less testing numbers). Its become more individualistic than community driven and therefore testing declines. Many of the problems MB raises are around this though (corruption, overdevelopment, etc) where the individual and what they can achieve/get away with matters more than basic rights like health, and trying to improve our mortality rates IMO.

  2. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Why anyone would vote for Labor is beyond me. You think Dan is bad, and he is extremely so, imagine that pronoun announcing (just incase you are not sure) girly man Albanese. Oh gawd no!

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      I think if you made a detailed comparison and Analysis of the situation you would find that it simply comes down to New South Welshmen just being a better of kind of human being, all around, compared to them Mexicans down south.
      AND our women are way more shaggable.
      In spite of our political differences I know Reus agrees with me on this.

        • Possible. But unlikely. People advocating this theory are still looking for the example to prove their point.

          2 weeks ago, Rolling Stone expressed concern that a large country music festival (in Tennessee or Kentucky) drawing 100,000 people to the state would be an unmitigated disaster. Cases dropped 40% since then.

          Same with lots of other proposed “super spreader” events.
          Dan will blame the Grand Final. Because its an easy out for him. But the wave was coming in.

          Two inconvenient truths
          1. You can’t stop the wave coming in,
          2. You can’t stop it going out either,.

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            Fair enough. Can you limit the height of the wave? And the follow on question, is it worth it?

            Edit: I see you answered the question below

          • 2000 per day for NSW is considerably lower on a per capita basis than the current UK numbers (roughly 8 x NSW pop, so equivalent to about 16k per day), which have been fairly steady in the 30,000s for most of the time since they opened. 2000 seems fairly plausible on that basis. Less natural immunity in NSW, so could be worse for a while.

            Tennessee is closer to the population of Vic than it is to NSW, and has been a fair way above 2000 since early August.

            I assume this is the article you mean in Rolling Stone:

            https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-country/americanafest-covid-nashville-1230668/

            It doesn’t make any prediction about the effect of festival on Tennessee case numbers, just that the festival organisers had tightened protocols, and some artists decided not to come.

          • “With an average of more than 8,300 positive cases reported each day, Tennessee held the ignominious distinction last week of leading the United States in new Covid-19 cases per capita. Yet this week thousands of music fans and more than 200 performing artists are expected in Nashville for the Americana Music Festival and Conference, a weeklong celebration of roots music presented each September by the Americana Music Association.
            While the Americana Honors & Awards ceremony, live showcases by established stars, and Q&As with genre A-listers like Brandi Carlile top the schedules of many attendees, trepidation about gathering in a state overrun by Covid-19 has been a topic of conversations among fans, performers, publicists, journalists, and organizers for weeks.”

            OK. Let’s agree that they were reporting on concerns held by various people, and that some acts were so concerned they pulled out.
            Fortunately however, they were at the peak and so they went down.

            On a broader note, can you point to a super spreader event that has lived up to the fear mongering?

          • Probably the wrong person to ask : I’m not that interested in super spreader events. They seemed a bit interesting when there were outbreaks from very low numbers, and so when you went from single digit cases per day to dozens overnight it was very obvious, but if there are hundreds to thousands of cases happening in the background permanently in a post open endemic world, they’re irrelevant.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      So what practical steps should be taken?

      Regardless of political alignment, what things could be practically done, given the current situation in Victoria?

      I guess that’s a question to everyone on this blog.

      • An acceptance that people die. Not just from covid but in general would be a very good starting point. Trying to prevent death as though that is possible leads to some very stupid decisions.

      • DodgydamoMEMBER

        Prepare yourself is all that can be done. Been out for a long bike ride today in Melbourne- there’s people everywhere hanging out together and about 50% wearing masks (because you know standing around having a yak in sports gear is “exercise”). For whatever reason at this point half of Melbournians are just incapable of following the directions properly, so there will continue to be spread. Hospitals already full (which is why the army is setting up triage tents and supplementary ambo drivers) so next month should be quite the shitshow.

  3. Vaccines aren’t going to stop superficial (minor) infections and cases. But significantly reduce invasive (serious infection).

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/five-graphics-that-explain-how-victoria-s-outbreak-is-tracking-20211008-p58ygw.html
    Federal government modelling suggests the increase in vaccination is currently responsible for a 25 per cent reduction in virus transmission potential in Victoria – versus 35 per cent in NSW.

    25% reduction isn’t much for 57% of Vic vaccinated. Nor 35% reduction for 72% in NSW.

    Its worse than this however. They are attributing all the credit of falling cases to vax. But cases are also falling independent of vax, and so the effect of vax is even smaller than presented here.

      • These outbreaks come in waves which follow a Gompertz type function and usually take 2-3 months to pass through. That has been the experience in most places. In large countries (USA, Brazil), the national data hides this pattern. In those countries, you have a wave which rolls across the country, but hits different regions at different times (like a tsunami hitting different coasts at different times).

        Social measures have a limited impact on the height of the wave – but significantly less than commonly believed. Lots of reasons why, and we are still figuring it out.
        Partly because it is airborne and doesn’t respect 1.5 metres. Or masks.
        Partly because this virus is transmitted indoors among people close together. So although lockdowns disrupt some chains of transmission, they create other chains and drive up cases within families. In Sydney. total cases were driven up by whole families being infected – even if they were following the rules. Those communities hardest hit were those communities were the average size of households was greater.
        Partly because people in lockdown spend less time doing low risk activities – like outdoor exercise and recreation.

        Lockdowns appear to work because they are introduced when things start getting bad. And then the waves passes. And people credit the lockdown. That was the great con China sold the WHO and the world.

        Vaccine doesn’t significantly stop cases. Or transmissions. But they stop severe disease. And you will find fewer cases because the cases are less severe and people do not get tested.

        Targeting LGAs with harsher restrictions and prioritising vaccines to these LGAs may reduce total cases a bit. However what they really do is reduces serious cases, and hence reduces the apparent cases (ie those you find). Nothing more, and nothing less.

        We have had this ass end around.

        We should have looked at the maths (which has no agenda) to see what was happening, and then try to determine why (and what to do about the why).
        Instead our various agendas have “told” us what and why, and this has led to poor predictions and ineffective solutions.

        Fear has a lot to do with this
        Fear of people scared of disease and death (our society is far further removed from death than any previous society). And so they want some control – even if it is an illusion of control. In earlier times we prayed to God. In that absence, we pray to Fauci and masks and 1.5 metres.
        And fear of politicians saying “there is not much we can do.”

        https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/04/briefing/covid-caseload-retreat-us-cases.html

          • +1, but what’s the situation with masks? And why do the Euros mandate them inside, but us outside?

          • That’s just what the Europeans decided. And that’s just what Australia decided.

            The answer isn’t any deeper than that.

        • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

          It is correct to say lockdowns have received credit they don’t deserve.

          You cannot infer from that that lockdowns do not work. They do. Qld. Multiple times.

          They will never work forever. So where’s the ideal line? Everyone double vaxxed 4 months ago would have been good. All Scumo’s fault that didn’t happen. Thank heavens it’s not a race!

          • They work if taken to extremes.

            If the virus had remained locked up in a lab in Wuhan, that would have worked. If Australia forevermore closed its borders to everything but electronic communication, sure that would work.

            Practical levels of lockdown have limited effect,. Less than s advocates claim. And less than the people enduring them would like to believe.

          • Everyone double vaxxed four months ago would mean the vax would be just about worn off now.

          • steve is right to say that the infections go in waves, so every time the wave subsides everyone pats themselves on the back for their clever interventions, but it’s hard to tell it that really had an effect or it was going to decline anyway. LvO does this all the time.

          • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

            “In summing up it’s peoples’ constitutions, it’s Masks, it’s justice, it’s law, it’s freedoms, it’s the Wave and, no that’s it, it’s the Wave. I rest my case.”.

            Sigh…

          • The Melbourne lockdown last year worked. We went from a peak of 725 to 0 cases, but that was all before delta. We had another few lockdowns which also worked, but this time too many people haven’t been obeying the rules, so you can’t say lockdown hasn’t worked – it’s the population who haven’t worked the lockdown. Everyone will remember the grand final because of all the illegal parties, but I reckon a large number of cases have resulted from the protests. However as protesters are likely to be antivaxxers and also unlikely to QR scan, the resulting spread of covid is impossible to measure.

            It just seems ironic that our previous 5 lockdowns meant that if we got the numbers down we were let out, but now that we are at the highest number (and increasing) we will still be coming out, and relying totally on number vaccinated.

            I’m not saying we should keep lockdown going this time with so many people having had enough but I wouldn’t say it doesn’t work at all.

          • Correct MD. Lockdown fatigue is why it’s not working. I’m over it too. Can’t wait to get second jab and hopefully can put this crap behind us.

          • The Travelling Phantom

            You mean they are good or are you mocking them?
            Sorry I ask cause I don’t get the feeling from your comment

        • kiwikarynMEMBER

          Nowhere personifies this wave theory as clearly as Iceland. A tiny population of 366,000 and they were early to vaccinate and got to 88% vaccination rate (of eligible people) very quickly. And yet they are currently in their third, and largest by far, covid wave. The only difference between this wave and the last two is that this one does not seem to be returning to low levels of new daily cases between waves. It should be obvious to everyone by now that vaccination is not going to stop you getting the virus, so all these vaccine mandates and passports are pointless. There is no difference in risk between catching the virus from an unvaccinated person or catching it from a vaccinated one, so why are we punishing the unvaccinated? The only risk they present is to themselves.
          https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iceland/

          • so why are we punishing the unvaccinated?”
            Either because they truly believe vaccination will save the situation or as part of a plan to move towards authoritarianism, most likely both depending on who it is.

        • All the evidence is lockdowns are highly effective.
          The difference between this year and last year is that lockdowns have been unable to reduce the reproduction number below 1.
          This is simply because Delta is far more contagious. Estimated at 5. So a 70% reduction in the R number due to lockdowns still won’t lead to elimination as was the case last year.
          A couple of other points:
          – timing of lockdowns with Delta is crucial
          – NSW completely screwed up their strategy because they were high on their gold standard product
          – Hotel Quarantine should have been abandoned when we learned that basic infection control (hand washing, PPE) isn’t an adequate defence.
          – with the majority of returning Australians going into hotel quarantine in Melbourne and Sydney it was guaranteed there would be more outbreaks with Delta because hotel quarantine is a disaster

          I can’t get past the fact that we wouldn’t be here if NSW and Sco Mo had of learned from the Vic experience last year and went into lockdown earlier.

          • Reading your comment, you would expect Victoria was doing better than NSW. Except is isn’t.

            “All the evidence is lockdowns are highly effective.”
            “The difference between this year and last year is that lockdowns have been unable to reduce the reproduction number below 1.”

            So (and no offence intended), but which one is it. They are highly effective? Or they have not been effective?

          • I thought my point was fairly clear.
            Lockdowns are highly effective, but haven’t led to elimination with Delta because the delta basic reproduction number is so much higher than previous variants (estimated at 5), so if lockdowns can reduce the effective reproduction number by 70% (which was the highpoint of estimates last year), this still will not lead to elimination. But what is the alternative?

          • Fair enough
            Unfortunately we are limited to observational data with all its (substantial) limitations.
            In the absence of good data, reasonable people will agree to disagree. .

  4. FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

    I wouldn’t be splitting hairs too much over which state was worse for Covid management. It’s much of a muchness really. Both quite good when comparing globally. (Melb did get fcked pre-vaccine last year with lockdowns, but nsw has been seeding lockdowns everywhere since, Inc NZ, so they ain’t no panacea).

    Both states going to hit super high-vaxx coverage. Both states quite sh1yte at targeting vulnerable communities. NsW abjectly poor in regional areas (see Wilcannia), Vic could’ve targeted hume/whittlesea harder.

    But really we should be pointing at scummo for the average rollout. The Feds believed their own hubris when they planned vaccines to be their election white horse, without having a plan to actually roll them out early on.

    Also, if we are doing a kind of Covid state of origin between nsw and Vic, it ain’t over yet. Pterrotet could yet launch nsw into full rtard territory over the coming months in the name of big business.

    • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

      “quite good”.

      Fluck me. We’re on an island bloke. An island.

      Vic couldn’t keep it from coming off a ship.
      And gold standard NSW didn’t even try keeping Delta on the planes (which is somewhat ironic).

      But yeah… Quite good. OK, sure…

      • It’s all relative. I got pretty messed up last weekend – stomach pumped, a fight, an assault charge, a DUI and a week on my mate’s couch due to a some time spent in the company of an ex, and I’m now unemployed due to some rather honest texts to the boss – but my other mate dropped 10 tabs of acid and we lost him for a few days before finding him in the psych ward. I’d say I’ve done pretty good for myself all considered.

      • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

        When I say “quite good”.. I mean if there’s a spectrum between bolsonaro/Trump level of full-r3tard and somewhere reasonable like Iceland.. We’d sit some there in the middle with plenty of fckups along the way (perrotet potentially being the next one).

  5. When the elite decreed that these new vaccines were safe and effective and were the one true solution to our problem, I remember the claim that mRNA vaccines could be developed at the drop of a hat.

    The elite said that we should not be alarmed at the speed with which the vaccines had been made available. The elite told us that mRNA vaccines could be custom made very quickly at the outbreak of a new virus. The elite said this was because the basic machinery of the mRNA vaccine remained the same – presumably the tried and tested lipid nanoparticles – and that only the mRNA strand would need to change. The elite said that this could be made quickly as soon as the new RNA of the virus could be sampled and isolated.

    Now the elite are telling us that there is a new strain of the virus – Delta – which the old vaccines are not so effective against because they were based on the original Wuhan strain. The elite’s solution to this is jab after jab of the same old vaccine. This doesn’t make any sense to me.

    Could someone please explain why a new mRNA vaccine has not been quickly developed to target the new Delta strain. Have the elite been lying to us?

    • Right now there is no evidence we need a new vax. The current vax is holding up well against delta. Well enough anyway. If you endpoint is clinically significant disease.

      There is some theoretical concern that antibody levels drop off after about 6 months. However we don’t know the significance of this yet. Antibody levels usually drop off once the threat has passed – otherwise our blood would become solid antibodies. But you retain the memory to pump out more antibodies quickly if needed. So that may not matter. Time will tell.

      Moderna announced a couple of months back that Moderna 22 would be optimised towards delta, beta and probably mu.
      https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/moderna-chief-executive-sees-pandemic-over-year-newspaper-2021-09-23/
      Not clear whether we will require a booster – but we will be required to get one.
      Plus there will be new people old enough to get immunised
      So makes sense to optimise the vax towards the strains likely to be dominant then.

      But right now, we don’t need an updated vax. And people don’t want a booster every couple of months. Only if the mutation is sufficient to escape the vaccine they already had.

      Like your phone. Most people don’t but each new release. They usually decide to skip new releases. Only when the old phone gets too old.

      • Steve the the lack of sterilising or even enduring immunity, combined with the high incidence of serious and bizarre adverse reactions that would have seen them recalled from the market in any other situation, are evidence enough for me that these vaccines are only fit for targeted protection of high-risk cohorts. For the purposes they are now being used – mass vaccination of low-risk cohorts, reduction of spread within a pandemic, I personally regard them as simply not good enough (edit: to agree that they don’t need to be updated/improved).

        • Can’t disagree.

          Covid is mostly benign, But it does have the potential to cause significant problems in a small minority,

          The vax has to be close enough to the virus for it to engender immunity. So its not surprising that the vax causes similar types of problems.

          I have seen a fair number of complications from both AZ and Pfizer. I was happy enough to be vaccinated (56 and high exposure).

          For both Pfizer and AZ, the complications have been highest in the young. For C19, the disease is much worse in the elderly.
          This suggests there is an age where the lines on a graph should cross.

          A guy I “speak” with wrote this fairly considered opinion piece
          https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2180/rr-4

          .

        • Unless they have health problems, vaxxing anyone under 25 is just plan crazy, and even then could do more harm than good. During the meanwhile, States like QLD wont open up until a large proportion of 12+ year olds are vaxxed. WTAF!!

  6. Interesting that Victoria’s highest daily Covid test number is 82,000 back on September 3rd. NSW’s highest daily test number is 311,000. NSW has about 80 days where test numbers are higher than VIC’s highest day and yet VIC’s case numbers are peaking higher on way less tests. The real number of cases there are way higher than reported.

      • 90% underwater means 10 x as many active cases as the official stat. which gives 172k active cases currently in Vic – that’s 2.6% of population. So having covid symptoms or being a close contact of a verifed covid case doesn’t increase your chances of being positive for covid. In which case, the virus identified by the test probably isn’t causing the disease at all.

        • That figure is commensurate with screening in Italy in March 20, but also Iceland and Germany slightly later. Both places did random screening (an entire town in Italy).
          In NYC in March – April 20, they swabbed all women being admitted for labor. 15% (fifteen) were positive. -2% symptomatic and 13% asymptomatic.
          And Melb and Syd have 0.2%? That’s like saying 0.2% of businesses understate their revenue.

          It’s like dark matter. We know its there. But we can’t see it. Not without random testing.

          Why are officials exhorting and cheering on testing rates like they were at the races? They know they aren’t getting them all.

          How many people don’t bother to get a test for a minor symptom? They know a positive will be a PITA. Even more so when kids finally go back to school – if a parent comes positive, its home school for another 2 weeks. 14 days. Even worse, the 14 day clock resets if someone else at home turns positive. Can you imagine that. “No way, are you crazy, I’m fine, why would I want a test.”

          • Sure they aren’t getting them all.
            But a 90% shortfall literally means that this virus isn’t the cause of the disease, as it means there is no correlation between having symptoms and testing positive for the virus. The other alternative is that the test produces random results – it doesn’t test for anything (in which case no wonder no one’s got on top of it since delta)

            As you note, people aren’t selected at random for testing – they select themselves or are selected by people who think they have a far higher chance than the general population of being positive. If those people who have close contacts or who display symptoms they don’t think they can get away with (more than a sniffle) are ten times more likely than randomly selected people to have covid that gives 0.3% of people who aren’t getting tested are covid positive – about 18k people in Victoria, so 50% underwater. If they’re five times more likely, there are 0.6% of general pop with covid, so 36K people, and about two thirds under water. Somewhere around those figures seems pretty plausible.

            Or look at it another way.
            If the 90% underwater thing isn’t a Victorian problem, it’s global (which I assume you must think is possible seeing as you quoted O/S stats to say something about Victoria), then the UK has had 10 x 8.1 million cases – 81 million cases from a population of 66 million. And maybe they have.
            But if that’s the case then a minimum of 15 million people there have already had it twice, and there’s no sign that the case rate or even the death rate is slowing with almost 25% of their pop having had it twice already. Which implies that natural immunity is fleeting at best.
            So we all better hope that the proportion underwater is nowhere near 90%.

          • You could be right that is 50%, or 67%. You have given the math some serious thought while my 90% was off the top of my head.

            But the point is that we are missing an awful lot. And we are trying to predict and plan and model based on the minority we know about. And we wonder why the modelling is all over the place.

            Astronomers have predicted missing planets (Neptune I think) and dark matter as they realised what they knew didn’t explain what they could observe.

            There are a lot of hypochondriacs getting tested repeatedly. Their risk is probably BELOW baseline as they only leave their home to get tested. Meanwhile lots of people pushing the limits don’t want to get tested as it will lead to lots of awkward questions. Overall, the risk of those we test may not be that different to baseline.

            We know a huge problem with studies and surveys is lack of proper randomisation. Yet there is a paucity of random testing here, which means we continue to stumble in the dark.

            The UK is about to solve its case numbers.
            https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-readying-payment-systems-charge-rapid-covid-19-testing-sources-2021-10-06/
            So the cost is shifting from the government to individuals or businesses wanting the test. Going to be a lot less testing. What do you think that will do to the numbers?

            Incidentally, that article suggests 25% of cases come from regular testing of people without symptoms.
            “The government and health officials have said that rapid testing, via easy-to-use lateral flow tests, is crucial for tracking the spread of COVID-19, with regular testing of those without symptoms identifying around a quarter of all cases.”

  7. Bet there won’t be 105 comments next Saturday night.
    Nor Monday night.

    Paramedic made said they are gearing up like NYE for Monday, and going to be a lot of people calling in sick on Tuesday

    • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

      There won’t be 105 comments because?

      It’s statistically unlikely to have a similar number two nights running?
      All tonight’s commenters’ old folks homes’ wifis will all be turned off to save money for the owners?
      The rest of the commenters will be too busy attending funerals?

      Why?

      • The Travelling Phantom

        with sad heart, i think the change to the subscription method for us poor people, at least myself, (who can access some stuff with the 2 weeks free sub) means i will be unable to join you guys till i save the exuberant amount…its becoming for the elites only 🙁

  8. Analysis of 27 COVID-19 early treatments, and database of 153 other potential treatments. 66 countries have approved early treatments. Treatments do not replace vaccines and other measures. All practical, effective, and safe means should be used. Elimination is a race against viral evolution. No treatment, vaccine, or intervention is 100% available and effective for all variants. Denying efficacy increases the risk of COVID-19 becoming endemic; and increases mortality, morbidity, and collateral damage.

    https://c19early.com/

    PS … hope some get the OP about “Elimination is a race against viral evolution.” bit because everything else is hand waving and oh look squirrel …

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