Victorian COVID cases and deaths soar

Victoria has recorded another 1923 new locally acquired COVID cases and a whopping 25 deaths:

By comparison, NSW recorded only 293 locally acquired COVID cases and two deaths:

The next chart plots daily cases across both states, with Victoria’s shooting back up:

Active cases across both jurisdictions are shown below:

Victoria’s positive test rate has increased to 2.33%:

However, in more positive news, Victoria’s Reff remains below 1.0 at 0.86:

By comparison, only 0.33% tests in NSW came back positive:

NSW’s Reff has also risen to 1.0:

Tomorrow evening, hospitality and gyms open up in Melbourne. The Melbourne/regional border ban will also be removed, as will the outdoor mask mandate. It will be interesting watching how cases respond.

Unconventional Economist
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Comments

  1. Wow, a “whopping 25 deaths”. What’s your next tabloid style adjective when the numbers invariably get larger? Can I suggest ‘colossal’ followed by ‘ginormous’, ‘humungous’, ‘holocaust-like’, with a goal of getting to ‘near-extinction level’?

    • In the context of Australia’s COVID outbreak, 25 deaths is whopping. It’s the equal third highest daily death count since the beginning of the pandemic (the previous highest cases were in aged care last year) and a massive increase.

      But yeah, have a whinge…..

      • Is it died WITH Covid or OF Covid is what I’d like to know. I agree its a big number in the context of the outbreak if it is deaths OF Covid.

        • Reus's large MEMBER

          With covid of course how else can they stoke the fear, if you die within 28 days of a positive test you count in the stats, however if you die a few days after the vaccine from the known symptoms caused by the vaccine then it is a “mystery” how you died ….

          • Agree it would be good if a news outlet or blog could shine some light on how the data is collected and if it shares any numberwang fudging like auction results exclude withdrawn auctions.

            As per health.gov.au i interpret that if you have COVID and died, you died OF COVID, unless you are crushed in a car accident. It seems to be convenient that they don’t share the ages of the deaths or their vaccine status. You get random snippets from the Health authorities on their status depending if the data looks good.

            https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-case-numbers-and-statistics

            ‘As per the COVID-19 national guidelines, a COVID-19 death is defined for surveillance purposes as a death in a probable or confirmed COVID-19 case, unless there is a clear alternative cause of death that cannot be related to COVID19 (e.g. trauma). There should be no period of complete recovery from COVID-19 between illness and death’

            Does that last sentence mean if you have had COVID 6 months ago there is no recovery period and if you die 6 months later it was FROM Covid and therefore added to the stats?

          • Jumping jack flash

            This! So very true.

            And just try and prove that the vaccine was responsible. Nobody accepts any evidence as proof, unless you go into convulsions and die on the clinic floor immediately after getting the jab, and even then it’d probably be difficult.

          • Does that last sentence mean if you have had COVID 6 months ago there is no recovery period and if you die 6 months later it was FROM Covid and therefore added to the stats?

            I would say it means for a death to be considered COVID related then it has to happen recently enough after infection (ie: without sufficient “recovery period”).

  2. “a whopping 25 deaths”. In the absence of tracking excess deaths this is hyperbole. How many deaths would Victoria normally see in a typical flu season, a typical October, a typical week?

    • In the context of Australia’s COVID outbreak, 25 deaths is whopping. It’s the equal third highest daily death count since the beginning of the pandemic (the previous highest cases were in aged care last year) and a massive increase.

    • Probably a fair comparison to daily deaths from covid is a daily deaths from flu during the flu season.

      For example, in 2019 there were 263 deaths due to influenza according to the ABS in Victoria. The flu season is considered to run for about six months, so that’s about 1.4 deaths per day from influenza during the flu season.

      Another comparison – in 2019 the leading cause of death Australia wide was ischaemic heart disease. There were 4873 deaths from ischaemic heart disease in Victoria in 2019, which translates to an average of 13 per day.

      • Except that we don’t test for flu like we do for this.

        If we did lots of flu PCR in nursing homes, our flu deaths would be a lot higher. If we did lots of CT scams we would be surprised how many pulmonary emboli there were.

        Your general point however is that this will continue to kill a % of the elderly regardless of vaccine, and I agree that is true.

        • No, my point was that in a jurisdiction where the highest frequency cause of death leads to an average of 13 deaths per day a daily total of 25 deaths associated with a single cause is a large number. Also, in a jurisdiction where there are an average of around 140 deaths per day, 25 deaths on a single day for a single cause of death will almost certainly be the largest number of deaths associated with a single cause that day.

          • Aaron – yes it is only 1 day’s data. The 7 day average of 12 covid deaths per day is a better measure.

            However, you asked for context, so I provided it. 25 deaths is a large number of deaths compared to the number of people who die each day from flu during flu season, even if you double the available figure to account for deaths where flu isn’t diagnosed due less testing for it.
            25 deaths is a large number compared to the number of people who die in Victoria each day from Australia’s biggest killer pre-covid, ischaemic heart disease (and so is the 7 day average). 25 deaths is a large number compared to the average number of people who die in Victoria each day, about 140.

          • Anders Andersen

            I’m tired of reading misdirections on flu deaths, I’ve asked my GP about the continuing comparison about flu Vs CV deaths and he just shakes his head dismissively.

            I’d also say I think it’s irrelevant how many would have died from the flu before, however I think it’s now pretty obvious how appallingly we treated the flu in aged care in the past and in the future we should not be so flippant. Japan at the start had nowhere near the aged care issue we had as they had protocols in place to handle the flu.

    • Click here for the Victoria monthly death data. For context, 3,807 people died in September, or around ~127/day.

      Looks like there’s a lot of variance between seasonal and even monthly deaths. E.g., 3,108 people died in Sept, 2019, but 4,058 in Oct, 2019. I don’t recall reading any panicked media articles about the “whopping” month-to-month increase of 950 deaths. Of course they weren’t dying from/with Covid then, so nobody cared.

  3. The BystanderMEMBER

    Shame that as Victoria opens up, the Andrews Government is trying to pass very heavy-handed legislative reforms to control pandemic responses. It’s bizarre – they’ve got NSW as a reference point, a whole swathe of experts they can consult with to get the best possible laws, and plenty of real-world examples of things going wrong when you vest too much power into a single officeholder.

    I guess what they say about absolute power is true after all…

  4. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/victorian-bar-slams-appalling-new-pandemic-laws-20211027-p593n8.html

    The president of the Victorian Bar has slammed the state’s new pandemic legislation as “appalling” and claims the government “grossly misrepresented” its consultation with the barristers’ peak body

    ……little to no checks and balances.

    “Stasi police would have been more than happy with the range of powers if they were given it,” Mr Blanden told The Age. “It’s extraordinary.”

    Mr Blanden was scathing of the bill, saying it did not have appropriate checks and balances, gave the Premier too much power with little parliamentary scrutiny and allowed for indefinite detention of people who breach restrictions.

    However, Mr Blanden characterised the consultation process as a “gross misrepresentation” of what transpired earlier this year.

    “We’ve never seen a bill…….“I’m very disappointed and cross…..and some of them are appalling…..This is a bill that fundamentally interferes with the rights of citizens……It’s just appalling stuff.”

    The Victorian opposition has given an “iron-clad guarantee” to repeal the legislation if elected to Parliament.

    to any senators reading this……do NOT vote this through….it is atrocious per top legal eagle

    andrews has declared jihad on unvaccinated people when NSW is letting them roam freely and go into retail stores from 1 December. andrews is bullying the unvacinated. do NOT pass this legislation. andrews must be stopped, he is over the top and now with treating unvaccinated with no mercy shows he cannot be trusted AT ALL with this new legislation. andrews has NOW GONE TOO FAR…..its no longer science and medicine it is ALL POLITICS

    • Ailart SuaMEMBER

      I daresay it’s something you’d expect from an individual who’s responsible for over 800 deaths. He should be preparing himself for his second ‘dose’ of ‘what-goes-around-comes-around.

    • TheLambKingMEMBER

      and yet they are pretty similar to, and based on the NSW laws. But mentioning that doesn’t follow the Vic (Labor) Bad, NSW (LNP) Good narrative does it?

    • A.30 line seems to have disappeared – last found in June.it cropped up in Tanzania, and so had little selection advantage during to low rates of vaccine. May have been very different story had it appeared in a place with high rates of vaccination.

      Antibiotic resistant bacteria are found where there are lots of antibiotics. This property confers no advantage without antibiotics being present.

      However what has happened once will almost certainly happen again.

      • Reus's large MEMBER

        Still less that fcuk all chance of dying from it though, unless you are old, obese or are very ill already.

        • True – but unless they die accidentally or by suicide, everyone ends up being either old or very ill.

          • That’s right, we all die in the end. And if the daily number of deaths from covid we’ve seen in Victoria on average over the last seven days was to continue in the long term, covid would be the equal most common cause of death in Victoria with ischaemic heart disease, so not a fcuk all chance of dying from it.

          • Perhaps Robert. But I suspect a fair % of those 25 were not vaccinated.
            You are extrapolating on current vaccination rates – actually the 2nd shot rate 5 weeks ago (given 2 weeks for 2nd shot to achieve peak effect, and 3 week lag between infection and death).

            25 deaths a day does focus the mind, and vaccine hesitancy does evaporate in the face of those numbers.

          • I wasn’t about 25 deaths at all – I was talking about 12 deaths, being the current 7 day average. At the same time, the cutoff to make the top 5 causes of death in Victoria is 6 deaths per day. That’s a touch under 1 death per million people per day roughly Germany’s current average covid mortality and roughly half the UK’s. It’s not outside the realm of possibility.

    • Jumping jack flash

      More boosters required. Perhaps we should increase the frequency to every 3 months?
      Or perhaps we should ask the vaccine experts at the vaccine manufacturers about how often we need to administer their vaccines? They would know best.

      • That’s pretty much what’s just about to happen in the US with Pfizer asking a FDA committee stacked with people friendly to their company to authorise their novel mRNA vaccines for 5-11 year olds, a cohort with the highest risk and lowest benefit.

        Members include a former vice president of Pfizer Vaccines, a recent Pfizer consultant, a recent Pfizer research grant recipient, a man who mentored a current top Pfizer vaccine executive, a man who runs a center that gives out Pfizer vaccines, the chair of a Pfizer data group, a guy who was proudly photographed taking a Pfizer vaccine, and numerous people who are already on the record supporting Coronavirus vaccines for children. Meanwhile, recent FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb is on Pfizer’s board of directors.

        https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/fda-committee-members-reviewing-pfizer-vaccine-children-have-worked-pfizer-have-big-pfizer

        • Reus's large MEMBER

          Well they have to keep the billions rolling in, if the vaccines actually worked then it would not be a good business model now would it, better to make one that fades so everyone has to keep getting boosters to keep the orders rolling in, and if one market it getting saturated then open up another with some help from your friends at the FDA

  5. What is NSW doing differently to VIC?
    Why is China still pursuing a zero tolerance COVID policy?
    COVID…the great conundrum of our time.

      • TheLambKingMEMBER

        New South Welshmen/Welshwomen are warmer weather lovers, thus healthier.

        Yes weather & lifestyle. Being outdoors more and houses not locked up with heaters on.

        I saw an article that showed that the Spanish Flu outbreaks in Melbourne were much worse than Sydney 100 years ago as well.

        • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

          Melbournians just have more frequent and wider-ranging relations, obviously.

          It’s all the coffee.

        • Jumping jack flash

          Of course, as expected. As we approach 90% fully vaxxed fewer will bother getting tested again if they get sick, except if they’re unfortunate enough to be sick enough to require hospitalisation. Then our case count will approximate hospitalisations, which is a far better metric anyway.

          I was recently told that testing is also going to stop being free soon, but I don’t know how true that is.

  6. NelsonMuntzMEMBER

    Let the Boomer Doomer™ Rip! Time to bunker down and get the popcorn. So many Boomer properties up for sale here in Melbourne, anecdata many are making a dash for QLD.

    • And as a side benefit they won’t have to pay for the Vic debt load. And Qld will be tax payer subsidized (rorts) to keep LNP seats. Win win!

    • Jumping jack flash

      It would make sense because auctions are going off in Bris, and typically Melbournians love those things.

  7. The big difference between Victoria and NSW are a “certain segment” of society who refuse to take the vaccine. It is an intractable problem. Dan’s “power grab” is not going to help either.

    Rather than imprisonment and fines, Dan should seek to deport those who refuse to comply with the health directive.

    • “The big difference between Victoria and NSW are a “certain segment” of society who refuse to take the vaccine”.

      Rubbish. Victoria is only two weeks behind NSW in the vaccine rollout and has made up lost ground.

      Victoria’s daily cases are far higher than NSW’s were at the same time despite Victoria having more people vaccinated than NSW did then.

      • Victoria has a higher wave and thus it will be a broader wave. But it will end up much the same general shape.

        Victoria may have got a higher peak thru earlier and more sweeping lockdowns. These lockdowns likely increase transmission within homes – which was most common site of transmission. So stay at home may turbo-charge your outbreak. The flip side is that you may be able to largely contain it to a geographic sector.

        We saw this in Sydney. Cases really escalated in LGAs with stay-at-home orders. But rest of Sydney did OK.

        All of Melbourne was stay at home. That’s why it took off.

        I don’t believe much of what comes out of China. Hubei was locked down to control a narrative and make it seem much worse than it was.
        But this was a contemporary story

        https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/m.economictimes.com/news/international/world-news/china-sacrifices-a-province-to-save-the-world-from-coronavirus/amp_articleshow/73976711.cms

        Dan Andrew’s has sacrificed Melbourne to achieve ……

        • Steve, I think this conflates correlation with causation. Intra family transmission will occur whether locked down or not. The difference is each family member is prevented from seeding outside that household.

          • Keeping it confined within families? Yes, remind me again how Dan got on with that.

            While we would all like causation rather than association, that’s just not always possible. So you need to look at associations and try to infer / hypothesise causation.
            Victoria has managed to land the longest strictest lockdowns AND the worst Covid outcomes using EVERY metric.

            At some point, you surely have to question the preconceived theories of causation.

            Maybe we better start looking at associations and inferring causations, rather than blindly following the 2020 China playbook. That doesn’t seem to be working so good.

      • Yes, the speed at which we have rolled out their shot in NSW & VIC should mean who have less breakout cases than say the UK as everyone is newly vaxed so it should be working very efficiently. Though the high levels of obesity & associated metabolic diseases could still make an impact on deaths & hospitalisations. Time will tell

      • Note how governments are saying “no more lockdowns.”
        Even Dan has been given his script and appears able to deliver it.

        They are hardly going to admit they got this wrong.
        But there is a change of course.

        Governments have been confused these past 20 months. Not surprising – it is the first time we have dealt with something like this for decades. This confusion has been aided and abetted by China and WHO. With friends like them, you sure don’t need enemies.
        I think they now realise they can’t control numbers by public health measures and stay-at-home orders.
        They hoped they could control numbers with the vaccine, but that’s also gone out the window. Look at cases in 6 New England states in USA – despite highest % vaccinated in the country. And they are heading into winter.

        So we are left with controlling disease severity with vaccines. And boosters. And boosters.

  8. Diogenes the CynicMEMBER

    Any daily count has noise in it. UK COVID deaths still rising 207 yesterday and they are going into winter soon which should see those numbers up a lot more.

    • True – probably better to use a moving average which removes some of the noise.
      After accounting for today’s numbers, that 7 day average number of deaths in Vic will be 12, making covid 2nd biggest killer in the state given ischaemic heart disease averaged 13 deaths per day in Victoria pre-covid (so assuming that the introduction of covid hasn’t lead to a measurable fall in deaths from heart disease).

  9. Jumping jack flash

    It doesn’t look like NSW, or possibly VIC, know how to measure active cases very well…. it looks like another revision to the method employed in NSW.
    Who’s to say that this is any better than before?
    Looks like they may have reverted to the previous method? Perhaps they found a heap of COVID-positive cases stashed under the bed or stacked away on a top shelf in a hospital?

    If you plot a “line of best fit” between the revised NSW peak and the start of the series then you can see that something is quite amiss in the data compared with VIC numbers of cases, unless NSW performed exceptionally well to contain transmission and total cases.

    I’d say that VIC need to employ the same method to count active cases as NSW, but someone pointed out that they already do this, so VIC must be failing hard then?

  10. Ailart SuaMEMBER

    I go to bed with this thought many nights and usually wake in the morning with it. Why are so many citizens prepared to trust and believe governments without properly educating themselves about this disease and the vaccines. According to the 2020 Edelman Trust Barometer, global trust for governments, media, business and NGO’s, was less than 50%. So, what has suddenly changed that has 70 or 80 percent of people lining up to have a totally inadequately tested mRNA substance injected into their bodies? I’m sure you’re aware that once the vaccine has entered your body, you’re at its mercy. You cant remove it.

    Most Australian households would have access to an online computer – and due to lockdowns, would have had plenty of time up their sleeves to educate themselves on this obviously concocted – ‘the sky is falling in’ event. I’m don’t know what or who is behind this absolute madness; possibly the urgent need (whether by chance or ‘other’ circumstance) for the global elite to initiate an economic reset, backed up with universal, mega-control of citizens, or Big Pharma chasing the money and being gifted with a ‘golden goose’ by stupid, naïve politicians with equally stupid agencies. I’m certain of one thing, however – the putrid, stench of a decaying rat has been present from the beginning. Maybe most aren’t aware that the survival rates for UNTREATED people who contract covid19 are huge. Here’s a breakdown of those survival rates by age. BTW, this is recent CDC data.

    Age Survival Rates

    0-19 99.997%
    20-49 99.98%
    50-69 99.5%
    70 94.6%

    One more thing. If you haven’t done much homework on this insanity, here’s a website that not too many would be familiar with, very likely due to the establishment’s desire to keep the lid on these hundreds of courageous doctors and scientists who have dedicated themselves to exposing the truth about these potentially deadly vaccines. Maybe I should have omitted the word ‘potentially’, as they’ve already taken the lives of thousands – most of them in the under 50’s demographic.

    https://doctors4covidethics.org/

    • Reus's large MEMBER

      So 4841 excess deaths, of those only 920 were from whuflu, I noticed that the uptick in deaths also follows the uptick in vaccinations …..the truth will prevail ….