Victoria smashes records with 2297 COVID cases

Victoria has smashed Australian records again, recording a pandemic high 2297 locally acquired COVID cases and 11 deaths:

By contrast, NSW recorded only 406 cases and six deaths:

The contrast in daily cases is stark:

As is the contrast in active cases:

The only bright spot is that Victoria’s Reff has fallen further to 1.02, according to COVIDBaseAU:

Whereas NSW’s has fallen to just 0.77:

Longest lockdown in the world. Most Australian COVID cases. Most Australian COVID deaths. Go Melbourne!

Unconventional Economist
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Comments

  1. You show the world how it’s done Melbourne!
    They watch in awe!

    All for a virus that is less harmful to under 20’s than a common cold. (V nasty if you are old and in poor health but then you didn’t have long left and whilst that is v sad, the alternative taken is disproportionate to a scale of 100 times)

    Greatest screw up in Australian history.

      • Bang on! I just want to take the opportunity for an internet group hug of the rational-minded commenters in this thread for I feel I am truly among my people.

    • Precisely, too many hypochondriacs running around saying we had to lockdown to save 10,000s of lives not realising that the bulk of the deaths in most countries are from people who are already in care homes or hospital.

      • reusachtigeMEMBER

        Someone linked to an article a couple of months ago that said that over 50% of people getting tested were repeat offenders panicked into believing their itchy nose was “finally” the China Virus getting them, for good!

      • Reus's large MEMBER

        Average age of death from whuflu in the US is 85, average life expectancy in the US is 80, all this BS just to save people that were on borrowed time anyway

      • Two years on, its a bit galling to realise that the majority of those people you “saved” are now dead anyway, from the things that were killing them before Covid.

          • There seem to be a lot of people indirectly arguing that medical care should cease once someone passes average life expectancy (if not before – say, past retirement age) “because they were going to die soon anyway”.

          • Frank DrebinMEMBER

            What were these other 233 deaths, and how do we shut down society to ensure they are zero ?!.

          • Cyanide in the drinking water? although that leaves all the pesky people out of towns on tank water.

        • An astute point that puts things in perspective.

          Not the majority – the average life expectancy aged 80 is still 7-8 years.
          On the other hand, the average life expectancy once in residential aged care (which is where mist Vic deaths occurred) falls to 3 years.

          Not to be unsympathetic or callous. All lives matter etc. But we have long used QALY as a metric to try and allocate limited funding in the most sensible way.

          So yes, a significant number of those most susceptible to C19 at the start of 2019 would have died of something else in the last 2 years.

  2. Relatives in Melb are a bit despondent this week. This will turn around. It always does. Victoria is close to the top, and I had hoped the top was in.
    Part of this is the wave extending across regional Victoria.

    • Ee Zed Eff Kaye Ay

      Wasn’t Dictator Dan lecturing NSW about a ring of steel around Sydney and fails to do the same in his backyard and now the cases are everywhere.

      • Partly. But it is inevitable. Sooner out later every jurisdiction has to go through this.
        C19 is now endemic. Many people from early 2020 pointed out that end-game was inevitable – although their views were not recognised.

        • oh boi. Most people would much prefer the chaos the UK and USA have gone through after accepting the reality that you need to live with it, at some stage. We got the dismount wrong as it was the left to the Feds to resolve and they too busy selling it to do it.

  3. Harshest, longest lockdown.
    Business shutting left, right and centre; jobs evaporating.
    Economy on the cliff edge.
    Victorians divided
    Heavy handed police presence
    Pretty much every decision has been the wrong one.

    • and the 600k+ donated to NSW when they needed it and the 300k+ shortfall we experienced in our hour of need. Thats the thanks we get for saving Australia in 2020.

      • Bull. Vic got more than its per capita share for the first 7 months of 21. Inexplicably they squandered this and dragged the chain on vax rates. Inconvenient, but true.

        • the qty of doses available before August makes your assertion moot Steve. As State delivery of vaccines goes Vic has delivered more AZ than the rest of the country combined. Of course it could get it hands on AZ so it used them.

          If you dig into the numbers you’ll see NSW glory is really Federal glory as they picked up the ball to save their PM’s state. Steve your truth is that of an LNP stooge.

          • thefatgeneralMEMBER

            Yes but if you think about it, when the vaccines arrive you send them to where they’re needed most – which was a giant outbreak in NSW at the time. It sucks for VIC, but I don’t blame the authorities for sending the vaccines to where they were needed most.

          • TFG Totally agree, but likewise I won’t sell that as a failure on the other states. I’ll humbly say thanks. Pretty damning 3 weeks before that when VIC was on the cusp of the 5th Gladys said no to doing the same in that infamous radio interview with Sandilands.

          • Your position would be a little more tenable had Victoria shared in the high risk work of air freight and essential travel. The bulk of this was through Sydney.

            Although largely isolated from the world, there were small numbers of essential people entering and leaving the country. Plus a small number of Australians returning home.

            Victorians were quite happy to get their purchases airfreighted – via Sydney. And that was how delta reached Australia – an infected FedEx pilot.

            Delta caught everyone off guard. As recently as June (maybe even July), there was scientific debate whether delta was really more infectious. Maybe the border restrictions should have been recalibrated against delta. Maybe.

            By the time it was established in NSW, it was clear that no country has been able to eliminate delta. And so vaccination became the next strategy – which would allow serious illness to decouple from infections.

          • Steve your clutching at straws, again. Scotty slammed the doors shut on India in response to Delta. Gladys going light on it shortly after was about elections, NSW cabinet and the other cranky christian Dominic.

            Your timeline is really skew if. Scotty slammed the door shut to India at the end of April. By the end of May the WHO declared B.1.167.2 as Delta to stop us all blaming the Kentish, the English, the Brazilians depending on our perspective etc. Its not a calibration error, its forgetting about primary ppe on a taxi driver directly exposed day after day in a tiny space. The gold standard writ large!

            The intricacies of HQ in Vic and NSW will likely always remain opaque and VIC had plenty of airfreight coming and going, which, as long as you use basic PPE, is very low risk. HQ on the other hand was not. Its clear to me that the geographies and especially climate of both cities shouldn’t be ignored when making blunt comparisons on their performance. The first overlooked design feature in all the HQ choices made by the States was the AC systems. Vic as the coldest, locale likely had inferior systems and judging by the pause and complete reworking of AC in their hotels its borne out by the governments subsequent actions.

            The underlying problem, the root cause does not lie with the States implementations of HQ, which all leaked but with the fact they were forced to accept that as the only option available. Its ludicrous to think a country would adopt a semi permanent solution like HQ in a 3 day window, against a risk of hundreds of billions in losses. When an alternative approach like fit for purpose quarantine out of town would have cost hundreds of millions, and could have replaced the billions already wasted on criminalising refugees as a distraction while we crush load Sydney and Hellbourne coz its easier than leading.

          • The Indian delta wave lasted from April to June, with a peak in May. This led to Morrisons decision to close our border to India on ? 27 April.
            Although the Indian numbers were disturbing, at that stage it was not immediately clear whether this was due to delta per se, or whether it reflected Indian demographics (overcrowding). It was not until June that in vitro research established the adaptive advances of delta. That together with the increasing dominance of delta outside India focused the worlds attention. So by June, it was very likely that delta was a greater challenge that earlier strains.
            By then, it was already in the country.

            The limousine driver tested positive on June 16. It is believed (not certain) he got infected from a FedEx crew sometime in the previous 2-3 weeks. So around end May / beginning June.
            https://www.cnet.com/features/how-the-delta-variant-breached-australias-covid-fortress/
            https://www.cnet.com/features/how-the-delta-variant-breached-australias-covid-fortress/
            “NSW Health don’t know for sure but they’re working on the “obvious hypothesis” the driver caught the virus from a US aircrew sometime in the fortnight before June 11.”

            So the timeline is that the border was closed to India in late April May, however within 4 weeks (at most), it had reached Sydney (likely via Hawaii or California).

            There was a window of opportunity to close the border beyond India. But only a small one.

            The problem isn’t the airfreight per se. As in this case, the risk lies with the aircrew who operate the flights who have a 24-36 hour turnaround.

            The data shows that Sydney did take on a greater % of the international airfreight. Plus an even higher % of the even higher risk international passengers.

            As discussed a few days back, yes you could return people to centres outside cities. But that solution raises lots of 2nd order problems. There is no perfect solution.

            Overall I think the best solution usually lies in the middle of the road. Restrict international movement and drive up vaccinations.

            Anyway I am happy to live in NSW rather than Victoria, and I presume you are also happy with your decision to live in Victoria.

          • Steve; the question is how it got through the net in the first place. Even with FedEx COVID positive pilots there’s no reason for them to step foot on the same soil as locals. Set up temporary accomodation/quarantine for those.

            I understand you love your state NSW – fair enough. From the people I’ve talked to in NSW many do but can’t argue their government hasn’t handled it well. It should of especially since it volunteered to take on more passengers to get this right.

            Yes there’s 2nd order problems putting quarantine remote – I argue they are feasible to solve. The billions of dollars of losses caused by delta dwarf those substantially. High likehihood, high cost risks should be mitigated; anything else IMO is negligence.

            The best solution IMO involves layers of control and I assumed some percentages to illustrate my point:

            – Not all passengers coming in are infected. According to NSW quarantine stats its around 0.58% of passengers (https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20200702_00.aspx)
            – Dedicated Quarantine. Its your best defence, relatively low tech and works against all viruses and all variants. (95%)
            – Vaccines on critical staff in your next layer PPE. Its easier to keep them jabbed regularly than the general populace and a lot less costly. (from current numbers around 50% reduction in transmission assuming infectious half the time, same infectious in that time)
            – Tracing of people leaving the quarantine zone and regular testing as we do in NSW for workers. (lets assume 50% success)
            – Then vaccines for the general population (assume another 50% reduction)
            – Then contract tracing, trace and isolate. (lets assume 20% success)
            – Then and only then resort to lockdowns.

            Probabilities of breach of each layer are multiplicative. I’ve probably been conservative on some values.

            Each layer should act as an airlock that the virus needs to pass – like security gates. In addition ventilation in community facilities such as schools, etc. There would be gotcha’s with each layer/details of implementation that need to be worked out but I think if there was a will you would see those issues be solved relatively quickly. As opposed to the current situation.

          • Thanks AK.

            Yes you could put all those layers of defence in. Sooner or later the virus would make its way through however. But it would almost certainly delay the inevitable.
            And you do have to wonder if that response is disproportionate to the threat.

            In years past, the older generations saw it was their role to bear hardship for the sake of the younger generations. That was part of the cycle of life.
            Something has changed in 2020. The young have carried a very disproportionate share of the burden with the goal of protecting the elderly.
            I think I prefer the world of old (and I am 57).

            This is a pretty neat graphic of the effect of the vaccine. Reduces your risk to that of someone 30 years younger.
            https://www.ft.com/content/d71729a3-72e8-490c-bd7e-757027f9b226
            I think NSW did a better job of selling the vaccines. The message was the same each morning – get vaccinated, the best vaccine is the one that you can get…. And that is why NSW leaped ahead in the % of population vaccinated. Not because there was more Pfizer diverted to NSW the last 3 months (there was). But the uptake was demand driven – not supply driven.
            Friends and family in Melbourne all got vaccinated months ago. They made that decision.

            From here, Victoria seemed to put too much stock in the powers of lockdowns. Not just the government, but also the people. I suspect that was why vax rates were lower in Victoria. They had been able to suppress it previously, and I suspect they believed they could do so again.
            Unfortunately, delta was a game changer.

            I don’t have a particular love for NSW (and am seriously considering whether it is time to get out of Australia).
            I do have family in Melbourne. I haven’t been able to see them for 2 years. I know from regular calls how fed up they have become – it has been a long time.

            I also have elderly relatives. They don’t want to die. But they don’t want to spend their twilight years locked away. Nor do they wish their grandchildren to miss out on what life at that age has to offer.

            We are going to have to live with this virus. That die was cast very early in 2020.
            That means mitigating its effects and learning from previous mistakes.

            I do think NSW (overall) did a better job of balancing all the multitude of factors that are involved. But I completely get (and respect) that others see it differently. It is a subjective judgement.

  4. NelsonMuntzMEMBER

    I am sorry Dan, but no one in Melb gives a sh!t about the lockdown any more. People are socialising outdoors and visiting family and friends at home, hence the surge in covid cases. Police are checking papers at the city limits to keep the populous contained in the virus filled hell hole, meanwhile it is do as you please in the urban slums. The sooner this charade ends and the Boomer Doomer is given free rein to rip the better.

    • The Penske FileMEMBER

      You are painfully correct. On another note, a business contact of mine advised me yesterday that he has just recovered from COVID. He was the first person I know to have had it and surprisingly and to his disappointment the “end” of your infection isn’t noted or checked. Basically two weeks after your positive result you get a text saying you’re free! He actually went and got tested again to be sure which he passed. Makes me think about some of the other people still waiting for our deaths to spike out of control when a positive case is “cured” in say 3 weeks. The UK is still looking the goods. I think the bed wetters are losing the battle and a let it rip mentality isn’t far away. Also, people can still hide under the bed if they want to.

      • Its not bed wetting to want an orderly dismount rather a stamped for the exits. When we still have disabled people waiting for their shot promised to be completed by Easter we need to settle down and fulfil the social contract before we selfishly scream its all to hard I need Kmart.

        • The Penske FileMEMBER

          Any disabled (or abled) person who hasn’t been able to get the shot is a disgrace. I actually find it hard to believe as anyone can rock up to a hub in an afternoon and get it. Your seemingly one off must be in trying circumstances and you have my empathy. I’m in a business that sponsors Bayley House – surely they would have a solution? However my empathy also goes out to all the going broke small business owners, stay at home school teaching parents, kids without a life…. So depressing, luckily I have a sneaky wine tasting night on later with some mates and a secret location which is really about Nelson’s point above about the rules being followed. If no one follows the rules why have them? Why not set some guidelines that will allow the spread (90% of us are going to get it) to go through without to much pressure on the health system. Don’t get me started on the 17 YO fatty that was pushed out yesterday by the fear mongers…….

          • I too wish our economic support packages hadn’t wasted 40 billion on the big end of town and not covered single traders and the like, but its really just the same as it always is. Privatised profits and socialised losses. Your a part of the family until suddenly your not then you might as well be the Taliban for all we care. Whether your talking economic or health losses its the same. The poor always lose.

            Looking to your favourite spot the UK, they actively targeted their old and disabled with mandated DNR and moving infected people to homes to free up hospital space. Eugenics for want of a better word. Again the posh eton boys just don’t have the life experience to be effective leaders. You say they are doing well, with Ambos already queing up for 20 hours+ in some spots their Winter (before we talk about paying your elecy bill or putting food on the table) may be a different flavoured eton mess than last years. One not counted in deaths but in long term disease. Europe on the other hand looks to be doing far better.

            The fact the LNP didn’t bribe their small business drones reinforces to me how arrogant and cancerous they have become with no media or societal consequence to their inability to run the place. Best friend or mortal enemy, for a bunch of Christians the good Samaritan went right over their heads. What more should we expect from this political and media mafia running the show?

  5. Excuse me for getting a little off-point.

    If I am buying a deep-fryer I can easily get information on the various models. I can compare Breville with Delonghi and the K-Mart brand. I can read reviews online. I can walk into the Good Guys (with a mask on) and ask the sales assistant for advice.

    I am now faced with a choice of getting a vaccine for Covid. I can take AZ or Pfizer now or wait for Novavax. How can I best compare my options and make the best choice?

    The marketing tells me they are all wonderfully safe and effective. This doesn’t help me choose between them.

    I need to know what are the strengths and weaknesses of each of these vaccines. Where can I find this information?

    • If you’re willing to trust a disinterested sales assistant with no qualifications who, at best, might make their recommendation based on personal experience rather than shiniest packaging, best ads, a mental dice roll or a kickback payment, then it seems you should be prepared to trust a doctor who would not only have attained academic results in the top few percent of their high school, but subsequently spent the better part of a decade being further educated and trained as qualified to ply their trade.

      • The doctors who did that that I have spoken to have always given the advice “Never use a new medicine in the first 5 years, 10 years if you want to be really careful” because that is how much widespread use it takes to uncover all the side effects and problems. Virtually nothing gets removed from use after that long but things do in those first few years.

      • That article is extremely shallow. I want to know more about the people dying from the vaccines. For example if fat people die from AZ, but blacks die from Pfizer then I can make a more informed decision taking into account my own fatness and blackness.

        It looks like Novavax might not damage the heart unlike the others. That looks promising. I’m kind of attached to my heart.

        • Total transparency should be a core component of a Democratic/representive government. It would be nice to have more data on lots of things but our societies are trending in the other direction and many people seem to be happy about that.

        • I would say it’s broad. It contains links to all the information presented, that goes to government data, medical regulators, scientific papers, and pre-prints. Probably a week or two of reading contained there. Go another level down (read all the referenced papers and links in those), and you’re probably 80% done with a literature review.

          It also contains all of the search queries that you might want- e.g. “pericarditis + pfizer-biontech” gets me 350 results on google scholar. Try this one to start… https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9067/8/7/607

          If you want to be informed without trusting anybody, be prepared to do the work.

    • TheLambKingMEMBER

      I am now faced with a choice of getting a vaccine for Covid. I can take AZ or Pfizer now or wait for Novavax. How can I best compare my options and make the best choice?

      You ‘go into the store’ – i.e visit your Doctor who will advise you. Doctors are the experts. They are paid to, and are one of the few who are actually qualified to ‘properly’ review the options from your point of view. Sure, use the internet to get an understanding – but you don’t go to the internet for advice on heart issues.

      But In a global pandemic, the best vaccine is the one you can get today.

      • You don’t go to the local GP for heart issues either. Walk into a GP with chest pains and they will put you straight onto an ambulance for the hospital.
        A GP isn’t likely to be much better informed than the public regarding the vaccines. They just read the pretty pamphlets and do what their governing body or the government tells them to.
        If you spoke with an expert in vaccines, specifically of the types you are planning to take then you may get informed information.

        • If you spoke with an expert in vaccines, specifically of the types you are planning to take then you may get informed information.

          And this is different from your doctor speaking to that expert…. how ?

          (I mean, other than the obvious part of your doctor having 10+ years of education and experience in the medical field and thus a far greater understanding of any information provided and its relevance to your specific medical profile.)

    • Some would argue they haven’t been in use long enough to have the data to know which is the best. They all seem to become ineffective in less than a year so are any of them worth taking?
      I’m sure all the articles and trial results for thalidomide were all looking good before it was put into use as well…

  6. The issue is that Dan has been had by China. Simple as that.

    Victoria presented itself as China’s gateway to Australia.
    It signed onto OBOR (to the point Canberra intervened) and sold assets.
    These commercial decisions reflected a greater underlying alignment with China’s ideology – not completely, but to a greater extent than elsewhere in Australia.
    Not surprisingly then, Dan uncritically and unthinkingly followed CCP propaganda and WHO naivety into excessive lockdowns.
    Under his watch, lockdown moved instantly from propaganda to untested theory to unchallengeable orthodoxy.

    He never stopped to think.
    He never wondered at the disconnect between what he thought would happen and what happened.
    The worse he did, the more he enforced lockdowns stating they were inadequate.
    He kept doubling down

    Yet Victoria did WORSE than every other state. On EVERY metric.

    I can not say it any clearer. Victoria (Dan) has been had by China.

  7. Lockdown as a control is probably exhausted. People are slowly opting out of lockdown in VIC and as they do they add more bodies to the COVID fire.

    I’m not sure what the VIC government can do at this point? Their failure to lock down the NSW border quick and decisive enough is already done; the cat is out of the bag.

  8. Longest lockdown in the world. Most Australian COVID cases. Most Australian COVID deaths. Go Melbourne!

    We are redefining what it means to be Gold Standard.

    • There is a company with headquarters in Collins St Melbourne that manufactures an innovative therapy shown to improve survival of patients in ICU and suffering from Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection (COVID). Not yet freely available in the USA due to FDA vacillation, but being used in a therapeutic environment in Japan. However, with nearly 200 patients with ARDS in Victorian ICUs it baffles me as to why the Victorian health authorities have not approached the manufacturers to arrange the use of allogeneic stem cells for the treatment of COVID-associated ARDS under compassionate use arrangements or in an observational clinical trial. Read more about it here. (https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/mesoblast-covid-therapy-trial/)

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