Victoria records 1612 COVID cases, 8 deaths

Victoria has recorded another 1612 locally acquired COVID cases and eight deaths:

It was the lowest daily case count since 6 October:

However, active cases have climbed above 19,000:

2.204% of Victoria’s cases over the past 24 hours came back positive – a reduction from recent days, according to COVIDBaseAU:

Victoria’s Reff has also fallen to 1.23, suggesting cases should increase at a slower rate:

Some positive signs amid the Melbourne gloom.

Unconventional Economist
Latest posts by Unconventional Economist (see all)

Comments

  1. So, NSW-VIC 8:8 today (16)? Normally it would be as bad as a Peruvian bus crash.
    Luckily, it doesn’t matter as much now that most of us are vaccinated
    (in the words of the NSW ex-fuhrer).

    • I’m trying to find death data by age decile and by vax status but can’t seem to find it for NSW

      https://data.nsw.gov.au/nsw-covid-19-data/cases

      I guess mortality data is held by BDM in each state after notification from hospital/funeral home/other? Vax status by age group is available so I guess you could roughly compare death and vax status by age group to approximate this but it wouldn’t be accurate?

      Found this, but not by age or comorb flag.
      https://covidbaseau.com/nsw/#line10

      Then there’s the weekly report but again it doesn’t have the granularity.

      I’d be interested in plotting in Qlik or PBI or other…

      https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Documents/covid-19-surveillance-report-20210928.pdf

      • Thankfully, there are too few deaths in Australia to produce meaningful graphs. The subgroups would be far too small to show anything but a general trend.

        UK and USA have done this with their far higher numbers.

        Best graphic I saw was a Financial Times article based on PHE data. Was several months ago.

        Overall, risk strongly correlated with age – almost a straight line if charted log. And vaccination takes away about 30 years of risk. So risk of 80 vax = risk of 50 unvaxed.

        Can email you if you can’t find it.

        Australian data will be slightly better than UK and US (largely because lower % of minorities who are over-represented in deaths). However the trend will be the same.

  2. BoomToBustMEMBER

    Lets compare Vic to NSW. Why such a massive difference, Syd/NSW avoided massive amounts of lockdowns compared to Vic/Mel. Vic has been subject to the worlds longest lockdowns that are still running. NSW is now pushing ahead re-opening before Vic. The situation down here is utterly absurd under our Fuhur.

    However on an interesting note, we live on a relatively busy thoroughfare. Traffic is significantly increasing daily, especially after 9pm on Saturday night, it was busy until around midnight when I drifted off to sleep. People are clearly over lockdowns and socializing, no matter what Dan says.

Leave a reply

You must be logged in to post a comment. Log in now