Victoria records 1612 COVID cases, 8 deaths

Victoria has recorded another 1612 locally acquired COVID cases and eight deaths:

It was the lowest daily case count since 6 October:

However, active cases have climbed above 19,000:

2.204% of Victoria’s cases over the past 24 hours came back positive – a reduction from recent days, according to COVIDBaseAU:

Victoria’s Reff has also fallen to 1.23, suggesting cases should increase at a slower rate:

Some positive signs amid the Melbourne gloom.

Unconventional Economist
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  1. So, NSW-VIC 8:8 today (16)? Normally it would be as bad as a Peruvian bus crash.
    Luckily, it doesn’t matter as much now that most of us are vaccinated
    (in the words of the NSW ex-fuhrer).

    • I’m trying to find death data by age decile and by vax status but can’t seem to find it for NSW

      I guess mortality data is held by BDM in each state after notification from hospital/funeral home/other? Vax status by age group is available so I guess you could roughly compare death and vax status by age group to approximate this but it wouldn’t be accurate?

      Found this, but not by age or comorb flag.

      Then there’s the weekly report but again it doesn’t have the granularity.

      I’d be interested in plotting in Qlik or PBI or other…

      • Thankfully, there are too few deaths in Australia to produce meaningful graphs. The subgroups would be far too small to show anything but a general trend.

        UK and USA have done this with their far higher numbers.

        Best graphic I saw was a Financial Times article based on PHE data. Was several months ago.

        Overall, risk strongly correlated with age – almost a straight line if charted log. And vaccination takes away about 30 years of risk. So risk of 80 vax = risk of 50 unvaxed.

        Can email you if you can’t find it.

        Australian data will be slightly better than UK and US (largely because lower % of minorities who are over-represented in deaths). However the trend will be the same.

  2. BoomToBustMEMBER

    Lets compare Vic to NSW. Why such a massive difference, Syd/NSW avoided massive amounts of lockdowns compared to Vic/Mel. Vic has been subject to the worlds longest lockdowns that are still running. NSW is now pushing ahead re-opening before Vic. The situation down here is utterly absurd under our Fuhur.

    However on an interesting note, we live on a relatively busy thoroughfare. Traffic is significantly increasing daily, especially after 9pm on Saturday night, it was busy until around midnight when I drifted off to sleep. People are clearly over lockdowns and socializing, no matter what Dan says.

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