VIC and NSW COVID cases lift

Victoria has recorded 1841 locally acquired COVID cases and 12 deaths:

By contrast, NSW recorded 283 locally acquired COVID cases and seven deaths:

The next chart plots the daily cases across both states, which ticked up from yesterday:

Active cases also ticked up across both jurisdictions:

The percentage of COVID tests coming back as positive in Victoria remains high at 2.334%, according to COVIDBaseAU:

By contrast, only 0.319% of tests in NSW came back positive:

Victoria’s Reff has fallen to 1.02:

Whereas NSW’s Reff is only 0.72:

Unconventional Economist
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    • It should be bearable until the kids go back to school next year, they have timed it nicely with the school holidays. They will just be seeding the rest of Australia until then. Look at what happened in England for indicators. When they get carried away and remove masking in schools in triumph early next year is when the march up will start.

      • England is letting it rip in the Summer/Autumn months, to build herd immunity for the winter.
        Given that everyone is eventually going to catch it, this sounds like a sensible plan. (As long as you are not one of those people to catch it and die.)

        • They have just offered / suggested 3rd shots to those of us who had vax back in February. Hard to know what to do, but it is pretty clear we will be required to have boosters by next year.
          I’m inclined to wait until 22 as only seeing a handful of cases now. My gut feel is it makes more sense to have a booster next Autumn – possibly with updated vax. And give it a few months ti see any problems with booster in northern hemisy

          As someone commented a few days ago, it is now a simple computer command to make us all non-compliant at some stage in the future. Very easy to make all our passes invalid at some arbitrary date in the not too distant future.

      • Frank DrebinMEMBER

        Not surprising given the diet and lifestyle.

        Spent a couple of good months in Glasgow but geez it nearly killed me.

    • Robert and I discussed this EuroMOMO data yesterday, although I think we have different conclusions.

      I don’t know what is going on.
      It’s not acute Covid infection.
      It could possibly be a delayed effect of earlier Covid infection, or the vaccine. Hopefully not and would seem unlikely. But Ed can’t rule it out.
      Middle aged men dying from heart problems? Could be people returning to previous sport / activity after letting themselves go for a year. Perhaps. But this doesn’t explain the excess in teens and young adults.

      Quote from the article
      “So, the general pattern we see is as following: People are dying in excess. The trend is most clearly visible among younger age groups. The trend is also generally getting worse. Most of these people are dying at home, so the deaths are generally unexpected. The deaths are mainly from cardiovascular conditions.”

      • “The trend is most clearly visible among younger age groups.”

        Not supported by any of the linked tables or data in the article. He’s cherry picked two weeks from the UK weekly data to say there’s a rising trend “The most recent week saw 25% increased mortality in people aged 25-49,”. Downloading the original data from the UK gov’t site that turns out to be weeks 35 and 36, where the sums of deaths in those age groups were 391 and 508 respectively, so a 28% rise. However, the week 37 total was 408, so a 20% fall, almost back to week 35. Zooming out and any sort of trend vanishes entirely. Starting at week 27 and continuing to the most recently available, week 40:
        429 469 413 438 459 478 431 435 391 501 408 490 465 457

        ” The trend is also generally getting worse.”

        Not supported by the data provided in the article. He seems to have been confused by using the cumulative figures (which obviously rise over time). Going to the original at Euromom and toggling to weekly shows no overall rising trend.

        At best an exercise in torturing the data till they confess.

        • Reus's large MEMBER

          Hw is referencing the Netherlands data for the youth dying in greater numbers, 300 with only 20 of those being covid.

          • The 300 excess is deaths is not for youth in the Netherlands it is for the whole country.

            He never shows that youth in the Netherlands are dying in greater numbers because he shows no figures whatever for mortality in Dutch youth.
            He provides a link and republishes graphs from but that only has deaths in 0-65, 65 and above and 80 and above.
            The article actually says nothing about youth mortality in the Netherlands. Moreover, the confidence interval for week 39 for people aged 0 – 65 was 342 to 443, and the deaths in the 0 – 65 age group was 442, so there weren’t excess deaths in the 0-65 age group at all that week. (you can go to, switch language to English and download a csv from the ‘Deaths’ chart to see this).

      • It’d be such a fascinating study, and easy to do – survey doctors, nurses, vaccinators, pharmacists, ask them if they encountered a reaction or adverse event in the course of their work that they felt might be related to a vaccine, how likely (from 1 to 10) is it that they would formally report the reaction or adverse event? Have they ever felt like reporting a reaction or adverse event and decided not to? Might be an opportunity for some to relieve themselves of a burden of guilt for remaining silent.

  1. TheLambKingMEMBER

    (from @covidbaseau) NSW has an active case number jump of 1272 today (look at the uptick in the active local cases graph above) but only reporting 283 new cases. More numberwang from NSW?

    • Reus's large MEMBER

      How else are they going to get the borders open to let the 3rd world in, they have to numberwang to do that.