Roy Morgan: ALP’s election winning lead narrows

The Morrison Government continues to stare down the barrel of an election wipeout according to the latest opinion poll from Roy Morgan Research, despite recovering some lost ground [my emphasis]:

ALP support has dropped to 53% (down 1% point since late September) cf. L-NP on 47% (up 1% point) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted over the last two weekends.

The 1% point swing to the L-NP came after Prime Minister Scott Morrison met foreign leaders including US President Joe Biden, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Washington in late September as part of a series of security meetings. However, the swing to the L-NP in recent weeks has merely acted to reverse the similarly sized swing away from the L-NP in September.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be elected with a similar margin to that won by Bob Hawke at the 1983 Federal Election (ALP 53.2% cf. L-NP 46.8%).

Primary Voting Intention shows the L-NP gaining the edge over the ALP

Primary support for the L-NP increased 1.5% points to 37.5% in mid-October and is now just ahead of the ALP which is unchanged on 36%. Greens support has dropped 1% point to 11.5%.

Support for One Nation was down 0.5% points to 3% while support for Independents/Others was unchanged at 12%.

Voting Intention by State shows ALP still leading in Victoria, NSW, WA, SA & Tasmania

Voting analysis by State shows the ALP again leading on a two-party preferred basis in five States including Victoria, New South Wales, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. In contrast, the LNP leads only in Queensland.

The ALP leads in Victoria on 56% (unchanged since late September) compared to the L-NP on 44% (unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a swing of 2.9% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.

There has also been little change in NSW over the last two weeks with ALP support steady at 53.5% cf. L-NP on 46.5% (unchanged). This result represents a swing of 5.3% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The LNP has its strongest result in Queensland and has increased its lead over the last two weeks with the LNP on 55% (up 2.5% points since late September) cf. ALP 45% (down 2.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. Despite the LNPโ€™s lead this represents a swing of 3.4% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP has gained ground in WA with the ALP on 55% (up 0.5% points since late September) well ahead of the L-NP on 45% (down 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result reprensents a massive swing of 10.6% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALPโ€™s lead in SA has narrowed over the last two weeks with the ALP 54.5% (down 4% points since late September) ahead of the L-NP 45.5% (up 4% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This represents a swing of 3.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The ALP leads in Tasmania with the ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47% – a swing of 3% points to the L-NP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The way this is headed, Anthony Albanese could go into hibernation and still win the next federal election. All Albanese needs to do is sit back and watch the Coalition choke on its own corruption.

Unconventional Economist
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Comments

  1. Albo trying to constantly duck and weave (is he even in the ring?) only to take the knee after a blow to the midriff in the 2nd on election day. Lack of training in the lead up is blamed.

    • The Traveling Wilbur ๐Ÿ™‰๐Ÿ™ˆ๐Ÿ™Š

      +1.

      The way, the only way, this is headed, if Anthony Albanese is to win the next federal election is for Labor to go into hibernation until after the next federal election.

  2. As John Howard would have said “the only poll that matters is the one on election day” but whoever gets in will undoubtedly stuff the country up even further.

  3. The BystanderMEMBER

    I suspect that these numbers are very ‘soft’ ones, reflecting the frustration respondents feel about the lockdowns dragging out. Once NSW and Victoria are out of lockdown–or its end is imminent–the 2PP gap will narrow back down to winnable levels for Scomo.

    Honestly, I doubt most Australians are even aware of the blatant pork barreling and corruption going on in Federal Parliament, and even if they were made aware of it, would probably still stick with whoever they intended to vote for in the first place. Which is made even more pathetic given how fickle voters are over matters of complete non-importance…

    • “I suspect that these numbers are very โ€˜softโ€™ ones, …”
      Absolutely! In fact, that has been the case for some time by design.

    • I can only agree 100% to this. Freedom from lockdown is all that matters to most folks. They don’t understand the long term price, and will see the benefits in the short term. The media will contrast them to Labor states who are still “living in a cave” despite the fact on objective analysis they have more freedoms that NSW still does and will have. But zinger lines that resonate with people even if they are misleading win elections.

      Thing is I think Labor could of been in Government now. They just had to stay away from housing and talk about wages and health care – especially in marginal suburb outskirt mortgage construction job belts this was the issue that broke them.

      • ‘talk about wages and health care’ and that is exactly what they will do.
        Health is the #1 issue out there.

  4. “The way this is headed, Anthony Albanese could go into hibernation and still win the next federal election. All Albanese needs to do is sit back and watch the Coalition choke on its own corruption.”
    Precisely what he is doing and why you are unlikely to see him say anything about NOM etc. That might ruffle the feathers of business interests/News Corp.

    • TheLambKingMEMBER

      Anthony Albanese could go into hibernation

      In fact this would be his best strategy for winning ๐Ÿ™‚

      That and a big campaign highlighting LNP corruption with the only promise going into the election of starting a Federal ICAC (with retrospective powers) in the first 100 days.

      • Jumping jack flash

        “That and a big campaign highlighting LNP corruption with the only promise going into the election of starting a Federal ICAC (with retrospective powers) in the first 100 days.”

        No, no, no. Doing that will simply open the door for the “other side” to expose *their* corruption. There’s possibly an unspoken bro-code regarding their corruption going on. That, or a Mexican standoff. Who will twitch first?

  5. Jumping jack flash

    ALP obviously going for the “we’re not [called] the Libs” strategy at the next election.
    That’s not to say the strategy doesn’t work. It is well known and proven to work all over the world where they have 2-party systems.

    Most recently and most prominent in MSM was the recent US election where the Dems simply went with “We’re not Trump” and scraped in on that merit alone.

    Of course all political parties have the same jurisdiction, desire, and capacity for change as any other, and all are lobbied by the same set of lobby groups once they gain power. Its just the flavour that’s slightly different.

  6. SupperannuationMEMBER

    In Chisholm the ALP have gone for a Trades Hall official with a PhD in cultural/gender studies. Not to worry, she has heard
    that wages are stagnant and working conditions are going backwards. Can’t wait to see her go after those businesses in Box Hill that pay staff $12 per hour while celebrating its diversity.

    • Jumping jack flash

      “a PhD in cultural/gender studies”

      Nice. Good to see that qualification is finally going to make all the difference to the voters of her electorate, and possibly the world at large. The snickering trolls will be put in their places! They will be rendered speechless as the sheer power of the PhD in cultural/gender studies guides the entire world, starting with that electorate, to the next level of human and societal evolution!

      It will undoubtedly help her people obtain the amounts of debt they need to gain untold levels of prosperity, and help her navigate them through the perils and callousness of the new debt economy, like only a shepherd extolling the benefits of multiculturality and gender-neutrality can.

    • blacktwin997MEMBER

      She’ll be snookered first Box Hill small business she sees, so much diversity AND so much wage theft. Like Tony Abbott that time when he just went silent, vibrating before a reporter. Hopefully she can up the ante by subsequently toppling over and gracefully assuming the foetal position on camera.

      “COWER BEFORE MY PHD IN CULTURAL/GENDER STUDIES!”

  7. Not a outcomes that lends itself to calling an early election.
    Scummo needs to call the election in the next few weeks for Nov 27/Dec4. Can’t be later because of the NSW byelections on 11 Dec and it gets too hot/people get grumpy r.e. elections near Xmas.

    Unless the next newspoll shows a historically massive shift to Libs Scummo will go to Glasgow and the next election will be in 2022.

  8. ALP have surefire path to victory.

    Let LNP (especially NSW) push this crazy high immigration narrative, then just campaign for a number under it.

  9. kierans777MEMBER

    The way this is headed, Anthony Albanese could go into hibernation and still win the next federal election. All Albanese needs to do is sit back and watch the Coalition choke on its own corruption.

    Not with the MSM reverting true to form and shilling for the LNP. The narrative around Koala Killer good, ICAC bad is the warmup.

    Should Labor scrape across the line, the first port of call has to be media reform, along with an ICAC and donations reform. Otherwise they’ll only get two terms tops and spend another decade in opposition.