The Morrison Government continues to stare down the barrel of an election wipeout according to the latest opinion poll from Roy Morgan Research, despite recovering some lost ground [my emphasis]:
ALP support has dropped to 53% (down 1% point since late September) cf. L-NP on 47% (up 1% point) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted over the last two weekends.
The 1% point swing to the L-NP came after Prime Minister Scott Morrison met foreign leaders including US President Joe Biden, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Washington in late September as part of a series of security meetings. However, the swing to the L-NP in recent weeks has merely acted to reverse the similarly sized swing away from the L-NP in September.
If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be elected with a similar margin to that won by Bob Hawke at the 1983 Federal Election (ALP 53.2% cf. L-NP 46.8%).
Primary Voting Intention shows the L-NP gaining the edge over the ALP
Primary support for the L-NP increased 1.5% points to 37.5% in mid-October and is now just ahead of the ALP which is unchanged on 36%. Greens support has dropped 1% point to 11.5%.
Support for One Nation was down 0.5% points to 3% while support for Independents/Others was unchanged at 12%.
Voting Intention by State shows ALP still leading in Victoria, NSW, WA, SA & Tasmania
Voting analysis by State shows the ALP again leading on a two-party preferred basis in five States including Victoria, New South Wales, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. In contrast, the LNP leads only in Queensland.
The ALP leads in Victoria on 56% (unchanged since late September) compared to the L-NP on 44% (unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a swing of 2.9% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.
There has also been little change in NSW over the last two weeks with ALP support steady at 53.5% cf. L-NP on 46.5% (unchanged). This result represents a swing of 5.3% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
The LNP has its strongest result in Queensland and has increased its lead over the last two weeks with the LNP on 55% (up 2.5% points since late September) cf. ALP 45% (down 2.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. Despite the LNP’s lead this represents a swing of 3.4% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
The ALP has gained ground in WA with the ALP on 55% (up 0.5% points since late September) well ahead of the L-NP on 45% (down 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result reprensents a massive swing of 10.6% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
The ALP’s lead in SA has narrowed over the last two weeks with the ALP 54.5% (down 4% points since late September) ahead of the L-NP 45.5% (up 4% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This represents a swing of 3.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The ALP leads in Tasmania with the ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47% – a swing of 3% points to the L-NP since the 2019 Federal Election.
The way this is headed, Anthony Albanese could go into hibernation and still win the next federal election. All Albanese needs to do is sit back and watch the Coalition choke on its own corruption.
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