In yesterday’s Statement on Monetary Policy, RBA governor Phil Lowe tipped a swift economic rebound once lockdown restrictions are lifted in NSW and Victoria; although it will be slower than was experienced last year:
As vaccination rates increase further and restrictions are eased, the economy is expected to bounce back. Many businesses are now planning for the easing of restrictions and confidence has held up reasonably well. There is, however, uncertainty about the timing and pace of the bounce-back and it is likely to be slower than that earlier in the year. Much will depend on the nature and timing of the easing of restrictions on activity. In our central scenario, the economy will be growing again in the December quarter and is expected to be back around its pre-Delta path in the second half of next year.
I agree with this assessment.
