BofA with the note:
3Q: Expect an in-line quarter, but guidance could be ugly
S&P 5003Q earnings kick off this week. Following another huge beat in 2Q, 3Q EPS has risen 3% over the past three months to $49.06 (+27% YoY); typically the estimate falls by4% into the quarter. Consensus forecasts imply the 2-year growth rate falling sharply to +16% vs. +27% in 2Q amid supply chain issues and the delta variant-driven slowdown. While there are reasons to be cautious, earnings misses are extremely rare: since 2009, there have been only two quarters (out of 50) when earnings missed consensus (2Q11 & 1Q20). We expect earnings to come in in-line with consensus and revise our 3Q EPS down by $2(to $49)and 4Q by $1. But the main focus will be around guidance (which started to soften) and we believe 2022 EPS will be revised lower.
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