NSW COVID cases crash to 360

NSW Health has recorded only 360 new COVID cases and five deaths:

The next chart plots the collapse in cases in NSW versus Victoria’s:

As you can see, NSW’s daily cases are at their lowest in around 60 days.

NSW’s active cases are also crashing, whereas they are rising in Victoria:

Finally, NSW’s Reff is below 1.0 at 0.76, according to COVIDBaseAU:

This means that cases should continue to fall; although with Sydney reopening yesterday, the situation is likely to change.

Unconventional Economist


    • Short CapitalismMEMBER

      Yeah, surprising number of tests. Thought there would have been a larger drop off from stopping mandatory tests for people from LGAs of concern but maybe sniffles from the cold conditions caused more to go. With vaccines reducing severity of symptoms, I expect tests to drop when the weather improves.

    • I’m sure that they’ll take a responsible risk based approach which means that places which have the sort of dynamics leading to new variants are excluded or need extra conditions – places like the country which originated delta, for example.


        “responsible risk based approach”.. like fast tracking 2mil immigrants in NSW or throwing more fhb patsies into the cauldron in VIC. So much responsible governance everywhere

    • Probably not. The mathematical models used by the epidemiologists may not be refined enough to explain.
      A machine learning model of multivariate time series, trained on a number of separate jurisdictions,
      could reveal the most important features (predictor variables, and their combinations) that decide which way the case count is going.
      Provided that reliable data are available, of which I am not convinced.

      • We don’t have reliable data because a lot (most) of the dataset is missing.

        Analogy: TA where you are given an artificially derived chart from just a portion of real trades, and then trying to apply that to the real market.

  1. All 5 dead were vaccinated. This is going to be interesting to see how this gets twisted as more vaccinated in their 50’s and 60’s are dying. Watch all the asterisk come out about comorbidities

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