Property professionals are losing confidence in Australia’s housing market, according to the latest NAB Residential Property Survey.
The NAB Residential Property Index fell to +60 in the September quarter from the survey high +71 points in the June quarter:
The fall in NAB’s index is universal:
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However, NAB has ramped-up its dwelling growth forecasts for 2021 from 18.5% in Q2’s survey to 22.7% now. NAB has also lifted its price forecasts for 2022, where forecast growth has risen from 3.6% growth in Q2’s survey to 4.9%:
“Overall, the property market held up remarkably well despite the disruptions to the economy, with strong support provided by policy makers and little labour market fallout through the pandemic.
“We have revised our forecast for price growth to 23% for 2021 and slowing to 5% in 2022. We recognise that rising house prices are creating an increasing challenge, particularly for first home buyers, as supply remains below average.”
NAB’s price projections look realistic given that dwelling values at the 5-city level have already increased by 18.4% in 2021 (i.e. to 21 October), according to CoreLogic:
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
