Mortgage demand signals slowing property market

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On Friday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released housing finance commitments data for August, which registered a seasonally adjusted 4.3% decline with annual growth also falling sharply:

New mortgages

As regular readers know, the growth in new mortgage commitments has historically been correlated very strongly with dwelling value growth. The reason is straightforward: the overwhelming majority of buyers borrow to purchase a home. Therefore, when mortgage demand rises, so does property prices.

Below are a series of charts tracking the annual growth of new mortgage commitments by value against annual dwelling value growth nationally and across the main capital city markets.

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National:

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.