Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are relatively mixed but bullish overall in response to the continued uptrend on Wall Street overnight, although concerns over Chinese energy supply and inflation continue to weigh with the latter to be brought to the fore with tonights dual European/non-European inflation prints.  Gold is trying to reclaim lost ground again, returning to the $1777USD per ounce level while Bitcoin has pushed aside the previous record high from April this year, currently just below the $64K level:

The Shanghai Composite is down 0.1% to 3591 points, while nothing is holding the Hang Seng Index back as it surges 1.1% higher to 26102 points. Japanese markets however are flat lining with no material gains as the Nikkei 225 closed flat at 29238 points while the USDJPY pair is pushing past its Friday night gains to exceed the mid 114 level:

Australian stocks finally joined the crowd with the ASX200 closing 0.5% higher to get through the 7400 point level, finishing at 7413 points while the Australian dollar continued its overnight breakout, almost pushing through the 75 level against USD:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are rising in line with Asian shares as we head into the London session, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing price wanting to extend its overnight gains and push straight through the 4500 point level as it builds well above the previous weekly close at 4400 points:

The economic calendar ramps up with UK and Euro wide core inflation prints for September, then US private oil stock data.

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Comments

    • So you want me to read 2 books. No TL:DR summary for me?

      Crypto just don’t invest what you’re not willing to kiss goodbye..but money in the bank ain’t doing Jack. Gotta put it somewhere..

      • Your a savvy guy that can look up summaries, but if crypto is the opposite of what its promoters were selling and in fact worse than what they said it would – fix – why would any intelligent person want to perpetuate its use for a quick buck. I mean all the people that got destroyed in the GFC for the same reasons, so lets do something even more absurd and then pretend afterwards.

  1. Parliament rejects motion to examine Christian Porter’s use of blind trust
    By Katina Curtis
    Last month, Mr Porter declared part of his fees had been paid out of a trust that was set up in such a way he didn’t know who had contributed to it…Manager of Opposition Business Tony Burke is now moving a procedural motion to refer Mr Porter’s declaration to the privileges committee. He tells government MPs the vote isn’t an adjudication on the merits of what Mr Porter did, just a decision to examine it further.
    “It would be the cover-up to end all cover-ups if this House prevents the privileges committee to even look at the [use of the blind trust],” he said. “If you don’t believe we should have a register [of interests], vote against this … If you don’t believe members of parliament should be held to any standards, vote against this.”
    Peter Dutton, as Leader of the House, says the government will oppose the motion.
    However, he says he wrote to committee chair Russell Broadbent on Monday asking it to make a broader examination of the issue of crowdfunding and similar methods of raising donations.
    Mr Dutton used the example of a GoFundMe page Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young used to raise money for the defamation action she took against former senator David Leyonhjelm. He pointed out a number of donors to that gave names that appeared to be false, such as A.Non.
    “I think this gives rise to a much bigger issue, a much bigger issue relating to Members of Parliament,” he said. “It’s a workplace entitlement issue and it’s a broader discussion that should be had.”

    The government’s numbers held and the motion failed.

    • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

      Which is the *actual* question.

      If a brown paper-bag stuffed with 10,000 fifty-dollar bills falls in a forest, and an MP walking through that forest stumbles over it, and notices that it has written on it a message clearing stating it is for the MP for the constituency the MP represents and it is dated with today’s date as well, is the MP allowed to trouser the dough, or should they just jog on?

      The former, obviously.
      People have been doing it for years.

      • Right wing has always been corrupt because its goats will and the poor will always be with us and some need two bitters and a sweet to function [Calvin], post new labour/thirdway its the same in a different wrapper because they think its better PR management in fulfilling neoliberal utopia e.g. haves and have nots Spencer style.

    • Do you ever get the inkling that some stuff is a distraction from bigger issues but people are hooked[tm] on the soapies … so their blood, emotions, and focus is drained like pod people in Dark Crystal e.g. why are all these people acting like this, it scales to rank and class in its corruption, and it has the unwashed stampeding over each other for a life boat [waves at chinabob] and all and sundry on this blog over how many years are in denial of past socioeconomic beliefs fervently expressed …. can anyone remember – ????

        • I proffer that your priors are not travailing well and its screwing with your concept of what was and what is … get a bucket … spew and get over it … then read the links above and have a gander at Econned by NC YS.

          • Look most economics is like code so one only needs to look at who is funding it, same goes for philosophy throughout history, then determine its shelf life, its pro/con attributes, and where your stand for a future for all …

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      According to Dutton, brown paper bags stuffed with cash only need the tag ‘A.Non’ on it, and then it’s not corruption. We need a ‘Blind Trust Party of Australia’ in the next election.

      • Frank DrebinMEMBER

        He’s arguing the opposite isn’t he ?.

        I think he has a point but both examples are shonky as all hell.

      • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

        Bought a $5 ticket for a meat raffle at a party-political fund raiser in the last… well, ever?

  2. Inflation is now running red hot in the US and certain other countries. Some of it may be transitory but a lot simply won’t. These energy and transport shocks will take a decade to properly unravel even though shorter term prices are likely to stabilise and fall. Unleaded in Aus is jumping up at $1.80 a litre, diesel same story of course, so fuel inputs are up like 50% in just a couple of months. Oil is a fake market with certain players determining the marginal cost and if they want to keep it at $85 or push higher then they will.

    10 years ago when $140 oil crashed the world we were almightily cushioned with the AUD up in the 90s. We’ll soon see how adamant the RBA is that it will keep rates at zero until 2024 or whatever its thought bubble is. If countries where inflation is running hot (e.g. the US) start to raise which bond markets are telling us is likely and we stick at zero with a big fat falling AUD let’s see the RBA stand with its head in the sand with fuel at $2.50, we may not be driving inflation in the world but we can certainly import it, and bucket loads at that..

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Interest rates are also meant to be in part, a reflection of credit risk. Australian bank deposit interest rates have for many years now no longer reflected bank credit risk when adjudged against a prima facie inadequate government “deposit guarantee” (capped at $20bn for a bank unless a higher cap is agreed to by parliament) and a defacto deposit bail-in as deposits have not been specifically excluded from bail-in.

    • BTW what part about exporting inflation amongst other things did you miss in economics class … wrt to reserve currency … so it begs the question why anyone would promote it …

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      US oil price is around $81 a barrel. Australians are paying $1.80 because we’re being ripped off.

    • Totally agree Marvin.
      There has been 7 years of below replacement level investment in oil and gas , these shortages were forecast long before COVID, the renewables zeitgeist has been a lot stronger than the uptake in reality.
      Permian Shale was supposed to be the new swing producer but regulatory hostility and bad management in times of 50 dollar oil has soured the industry for many.
      Lead in time for new oil and gas projects is measured in years.
      I suspect the situation is worse in coal.
      We will import lots of inflation , just not in wages. We will import deflation in wages.

  3. Way to think about the vaccination issue at the moment:
    Fully vaccinated provide safety to the un-vaccinated
    un-vaccinated are a risk to the vaccinated

    So, the burden should be on the un-vaccinated to declare their status *at all times*.
    It is an unacceptable risk to the vaccinated to have un-vaxxed blending in to crowds, where choices and precautions can’t be made by the vaccinated.
    The usual clowns will hate this, but why shouldn’t the un-vaxxed be required to register/indicate that in public places? Afterall they are voluntarily deciding to be a risk to the vaccinated.

    • Mandell, Douglas, and Bennett s Principles and Practice of Infectious Diseases, first two chapters, that there is no such thing as immunity with viruses. Inoculation is insurance for the immunized in reducing symptoms and the term of them e.g. you are just as susceptible to getting covid as the un-vaccinated[.]

      Hence the criticism about public information perceptions leading to some vaccinated frolicking around as if they are immune, thus helping spread covid to both un and vaccinated people and the consequences of that in the near and far term for society at large and at the individual level.

      The actual drama is centered around giving the virus the – opportunity – to run through its evolutionary play book in a short time line, we’re always behind the curve and things can get out of hand quickly. The allegory would be why fruit flies are used for genetic studies, because their life span allows generational expediency in observing changes but the observer went on holidays. All made more difficult due to the ability for the virus to chance upon the same mutation individually in different locations in or about the same time.

      Then on top of all that you have decades of ideological economics/politics/social organization and geopolitical antics setting the stage for whom blinks first or grins during a game of smilie poker for first mover advantage or preserves capital until the storm passes thingy …

      This is on top of all the things that lead up to the GFC and Post trying to sort itself out and bang right between the eyes … just make sure you have a towel with you at all time
      Reply ↓

      • Skippy,
        None of that really addresses the point that someone who is unvaccinated is more likely to carry and transmit the virus.
        So vaccinated person x is at far greater risk facing unvaccinated person y v vaccinated person z (who look exactly the same – ie. there is no smoke coming out of their mouth they don’t look drunk etc.).

        ie. the unvaccinated are volunteering to be a health risk to the vaccinated.
        That seems completely unacceptable to me especially with such a contagious virus.
        And the $2 shop libertarians will say, “yeah but it’s my right to not declare my public health risk and spread covid”
        Which is BS, when every developed country has constantly monitored registers of people with infectious diseases and by law they are required to report following diagnosis and following.

        • Your a dead set fkwith without any knowledge about the topic and resort to sophistry in lieu e.g. vax or not has no factor in transmission because there is no immunity on offer.

          • bahahaha have you joined the human rights brigade?

            the source of breakthrough cases is almost always from the unvaxxed. Do you disagree? Will you answer? Do you understand the problem?

          • Read the non ideological or political science on the matter and inform yourself before making public statements that are scientifically false and by that become a ideological proselytizer and then turn that gaze on others fkwit …

          • are you trying to mimic Mig or something?
            unintelligible un-related internal monologue combined with abuse.

            Did you miss my question marks?

            ?

          • BTW it think its hilarious how you wrap yourself in Keynesian garb but push libertarian thought obliquely, provide cover for core axioms whilst posing as a labour sort, IS-LM cough … neoclassical corporatism social origination.

          • Mandell, Douglas, and Bennett s Principles and Practice of Infectious Diseases, first two chapters, that there is no such thing as immunity with viruses. Refute it ideologue.

          • “push libertarian thought”

            By openly calling for 100% vaccination rates and mandates?
            yep that is pretty libertarian…

            This intrigues me, why are you teaming up with the libertarians on this vaccination issue?
            Just wanted a fight?

          • Hay dim wit read the science I put under your nose and not the ideological crap you have in your eye … smart man …

          • so the off topic “science” is inadmissable
            back to my question:

            why are you teaming up with the libertarians on this vaccination issue?
            Just wanted a fight?

          • The libertarian thing is your trip wire and has nothing to do with the science that you have yet to refute.
            E.g vax has no immunity full stop.

          • look I just addressed that.
            there is no hay fever vax, but a high pollen day isn’t going to overload the public hospitals.

            Please just answer one of my questions..
            any 9 of them.. surprise me.

          • Douglas was done for importing coke into Cambodia, so wouldn’t rely on that scholarly article.
            You should read Advanced Science, interesting text book from the 8th grade, it found that kangaroos are so inbred, they have no sense of reality

        • A high pollen day did crash the Victorian health system some years back.
          Rye grass /thunder storm had thousands with breathing difficulties.

    • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

      Can’t quite bring myself to believe that vaxxed transmit less, than non-vaxxed (not if the assumption that both groups behave according to the requirements for social distancing etc. is made). Got a link for a study that is able to show that empirically?

      I’ve heard all the press conferences where “reduces transmission” is asserted, and not once have I heard a reduction factor. I mention all of this as at one of them this week someone finally gave a factor for flu vs Delta – a factor of 10 – “10 times more…”. But still waiting on one for vax reduction of spread.

    • Reus's large MEMBER

      Same with the fatties, they should be publicly shamed into loosing weight, they are just a drain on the healthcare system.

      • they don’t represent a risk to others and their health issue is visible to everyone.

        Unvaxxed represent a risk to the vaxxed and their health issue is invisible.

    • Fully vaccinated provide safety to the un-vaccinated
      un-vaccinated are a risk to the vaccinated

      This makes no sense. A person who has taken an effective vaccine should have no fear of catching the virus.

      On the other hand, if the vaccines are not effective then why would you insist that other people take them?

      • Fkmedead morons I though it was a fact that science shows that their is no such thing as immunity, basic facts, what you get is a lower risk when infected, that is all.

        • Is this aggressive take no prisoners Skip meant to be more convincing?
          Should I be convinced now?

    • What I’m hearing from you is that the vaccinated need to be protected from the unvaccinated by forcing the unvaccinated to use the protection that didn’t protect the vaccinated. Also, lets become a society that publicly shames.. based merely on disease risk, not even actual disease. Worked well with AIDS, right? Cretinous.

    • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

      I was waiting ALL flicking week for that.
      And they fluffed it completely.

      The MEDIA watch story wasn’t about climate change.
      It was about the much vaunted editorial independence of Murdoch organs.

      And how, magically, 9 major print mastheads (amongst so many other ‘news’ distributors) magically had their editors all come to climate-jebus all in the same week. Independently.

      Did not get any attention.
      But that was the story. The only story.

      Never again can Murdoch or his minions claim “independent journalism”. Ever. It speaks for itself and media watch wasn’t listening as the story of the century, the biggest thing to happen in media since you only get one Alan Bond in a lifetime, sailed right past it.

  4. Narapoia451MEMBER

    Another apartment nightmare story on a current affair tonight. I know someone affected by one of these buildings, just a disaster for the people that bought into these buildings. If it was me I would be plotting revenge.

  5. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    Higher urban densities associated with the worst housing affordability … Wendell Cox … Demographia / New Geography

    https://www.newgeography.com/content/007221-higher-urban-densities-associated-with-worst-housing-affordability

    There is an expectation in some quarters that densification of existing urban areas will lead to improved housing affordability. This argument is used to justify densification policies around the world. However, an examination housing affordability and the density of built-up urban areas corresponding to the 53 major US markets (metropolitan areas over 1,000,000 population) suggests just the opposite — that higher urban densities are associated with worse housing affordability, for both owners and renters….

    … Housing Affordability by Urban Density Major US Markets

    Housing affordability measures (median multiple) are indicated by urban population density in Figure 2. All urban density categories under 3,500 per square mile have median multiples of from 3.5 to 3.6, which indicates “moderately unaffordable” housing. From 3,500 density up, housing affordability drops sometimes, dramatically. Urban areas with densities from 3,500 to 4,499 per square mile have seriously unaffordable housing, at 4.9, while those from and 4,500 to 5,499 have “severely unaffordable” housing at 5.4. Urban areas with densities of 5,500 per square mile have even more severely unaffordable housing, at 8.8 (Note 2). This category includes Los Angeles, San Francisco, and San Jose. … read more via hyperlink above …

    Demographia International Housing Affordability: All Editions

    http://www.demographia.com/db-dhi-index.htm

    Demographia World Urban Areas

    http://www.demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf

  6. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    New Zealand …

    … Lead Bank ANZ significantly lifts interest rates …

    Following the sharp wholesales rate rises, NZ’s largest home loan lender takes fixed mortgage rates up to another level. They also raise term deposit rates … David Chaston … Interest Co NZ

    https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/112847/following-sharp-wholesales-rate-rises-nzs-largest-home-loan-lender-takes

    ANZ has announced sharply higher fixed home loan carded rates across the board.

    They are pushing through a +45 bps change, far above the recent +25 bps OCR change from the RBNZ.

    They no longer offer any mortgage rates below 3%.

    And now their four and five year fixed rates are well above 5%.

    These changes follow sharp wholesale rate increases in the past few days, that are sticking after their initial jump.

    At the same time, ANZ are also sharply raising term deposit offer rates. … read more via hyperlink above …