Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are following the uptick in Wall Street with strong gains across the region as the USD loses significant ground against the major currencies, with the Australian dollar putting in a three month high on the back of the latest RBA Minutes. This is all essentially on technical breakouts as economic news is thin on the ground. Gold is trying to reclaim lost ground, rebounding to the $1777USD per ounce level while Bitcoin continues to creep up on its previous record high from April this year, currently just above the $62K level:

The Shanghai Composite is up 0.5% to 3591 points, recovering most of its previous losses while the Hang Seng Index is surging much stronger, up 1.3% to 25739 points. Japanese markets are doing much better as they go into election mode, with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.6% higher at 29215 points while the USDJPY pair is still holding on to its Friday night gains just below the mid 114 level:

Australian stocks were the odd ones out – again – with the ASX200 closing dead flat and still shy of the 7400 point level, finishing at 7374 points while the Australian dollar has broken out hard above the mid 74 level in response to the unchanged RBA minutes, blasting through technical resistance:

While Eurostoxx are up 0.2%, S&P futures are flat as we head into the London session, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing price wanting to extend its overnight gains and head along to the 4500 point level as it builds well above the previous weekly close at 4400 points:

The economic calendar is relatively quiet with a lot of ECB, BOE and Fed speeches and not much else!

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)

Comments

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      My 43 yo mate is in hospital, had 600mm of small and large stomach removed. Dead tissue. I’m thinking it may have something to do with that stint in India, on site machining. He was here after 6mths complaining of gut ache then they found a bug growing in it. That was years ago. Do we really want the volume of immigrants here increasing the chances of contagious health problems.

        • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

          And that, Boom, Lord luv ya, is why you’re only allowed to drill holes in inanimate objects.

          PS You might want to revisit that revision. Bowel?

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Inanimate objects don’t heal themselves.
            Once had a medical practitioner come to my gym who thought when she brought her car to the garage part of the remedy was to rest the car, for self healing.
            There are many places on the human body that an incorrect hole would be healed over but an inanimate object wrongly drilled would be evidenced for thousands of years.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            JohnR
            How the hell did you remember that, maybe cause it helped bring Brock down.
            Anyhow, kudos for well played.

  1. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    China …

    Demand for land in China is slumping as the Evergrande crisis unfolds, and local governments have withdrawn more than 200 plots of land from auction in the past month …
    Huileng Tan … Business Insider

    https://www.businessinsider.com.au/evergrande-crisis-hits-china-local-government-land-sales-auction-withdrawals-21-10?r=US&IR=T

    • Local governments in China have withdrawn 206 plots of land from auctions since September.

    • Demand among property developers for land has fallen due to tightening bank credit due to the Evergrande crisis.

    • Home sales by value have dropped about 17% on-year in September.

    • How did that work out for the USA post GFC – ????? – and U.K. not to mention most of the E.U. and now Germany.

        • The point being is Hugh and others are selling an ideology and twist things to fit the narrative, that is a form of agnotology.

          One can say pretty much the same thing for many other countries including the U.S. e.g. all that criminally issued and rated paper that made some squillionairs in the hear and now that caused the GFC whilst the bag holders were left high and dry. Thus the 34T-ish bailout to stop the worlds financial system from imploding. Then they got Trump and now Biden can’t even pass a stimulus package because some blue dog dems afraid people will get lazy …. lmmao …

          • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

            Yes China has never tried to rewrite history or scrub people’s existence from the internet or living memory, it’s almost like Xi and Wang want to recreate the party from 1984

          • Jumping jack flash

            It did take them a few years to recover though. Everything is pretty much “back to normal” in the US re property prices and debt from what i read around the interwebs. Possibly for some time. People lining up for debt again, bemoaning they aren’t eligible for more. House prices rising.

          • Bad form SUS[tm], you have to put things in context and not make open ended hand waving distractions. American politicians bend over for the oligarchs and tell everyone else to boot strap when traditional families have more out flows and less adjusted income since the 70s – even with 400%+ increase in productivity. Always enough money for corporate largess, wealthy freebees, and military boondoggles but everyone else can pound sand and its all China’s fault. I mean China foist neoliberalism on them too …. right ….

          • What makes you think I’m apologizing when I only pointing out the hypocrisy of those pushing an ideological agenda with mangled information.

            PS who rated Evergrande’s paper for international buyers – ????

    • It doesn’t mention this in the article but I understand that Chinese local governments raise revenue from land sales as they don’t have land tax funding mechanism or similar. M Pettis suggests starving local gov will drive domestic consumption. Has someone done the maths in one of the central agencies, convinced that caving in the property sector will help a dramatic restructure of the Chinese economy. Holysh*t batman if so, that is a lot of hubris!

  2. The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

    HODL her tight, HODL her like a baby.
    Make her feel, make her feel real good.
    Give a chance, give her time to love ya.

  3. That hippie pinko commie known as the Pope has come out slandering modern rentier capitalism and suggesting that helping out others might be a good way to go about things

    https://www.vatican.va/content/francesco/en/messages/pont-messages/2021/documents/20211016-videomessaggio-movimentipopolari.html

    Imagine if Biden said “Sorry folks, the Pope said we have to get rid of patents and enact a UBI. Being a good Christian I am bound to follow my Church leaders.” It’d never happen, but if it did the reaction would be hilarious.

    • If you really want some head to splode* try explaining antiquarian BIBLICAL property rights, rural Ag/Animal was heraldic whilst town/city a seller had a year to reverse the contract of a sale. There is no logic too it and its a Hodge Podge of older thoughts and rebranded views of other societies all mashed together …. Keynes said the Babylonian debates almost sent him nuts … I know the feeling …

    • Jumping jack flash

      The pope can talk tough because he has no need for debt. Once you add debt into the mix charity goes out the window. You cant pay a mega mortgage at 10x income for 30 years, and also give your money away! Come on lets be real.

      Maybe he can rattle his cup outside the doors of the banks, they’re pretty much the only ones who have money to spare.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        And that’s why celibacy was invented. No need to look after a dead priest’s family. All church property stays with the church. No debt required.

        (As an aside, in the 16th century the Vatican ordered 1000 years worth of replacement mosaic tiles for St Peter’s, along with those needed to do the job. There are up to eight replacement tiles for each tile in the Basilica. Every year after Easter, some of those 16th C replacement tiles are used to patch the years wear and tear. That’s long term thinking!)

  4. Just heard the electoral commission told to clear the decks for 4 or 11 December.

    Let’s see if my insider is full of sh!t or not.

      • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

        If they’ve ever appeared in Insiders and are still alive then yes, yes they are.

    • C'est de la folieMEMBER

      I think 11 Dec may be a touch late (already there would be a backdrop of shopkeepers saying ‘not enough’), but 4 December implies a call later this week.

      Could make things real interesting

        • good. 2 birds, one stone.
          I missed the last ones as I had no idea they were on – “oh, we advertise in the local paper [Swampy doesn’t buy it]”,”there’s advertising on local radio” [nope, don’t listen to that], there are signs in the towns ” [Swampy drives rural roads to work and there were no signs – why wasn’t there a mailout to residents?!]. got a fine, not happy,

      • That might be the genius of it. He can’t blunder about and all the focus will be on Albanese. The question is what to do with Barnaby during that time?

  5. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    New Zealand: When is New Zealand’s strengthening new dwelling production going to be properly reported ? …

    … It appears New Zealand, on a comparable population basis, likely has the highest consenting / approval rate in the developed world … with remarkably .. residential production up around China’s recent levels …

    It has just been reported United States residential building approvals slumped by 7.7% last month to an annualized rate of 1.589 million units …

    U.S. housing starts, permits tumble in September … Reuters / Yahoo Finance

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-housing-starts-permits-tumble-123711801.html

    With its population of 332.855 million (population clock), this represents a consenting / approval rate per 1,000 residents per annum of 4.77.

    Meantime, New Zealand’s (population clock 5.149 million) August residential consents / approvals lifted some 24% yoy and were 4,490. Annualizing this figure … 53,880. …

    Building consents issued: August 2021 … Statistis New Zealand

    https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/building-consents-issued-august-2021

    New Zealand’s August figure annualized is 10.46 residential consents / approvals per 1,000 population per annum.

    Therefore … on a credible population comparable basis, the United States is approving just 46% what New Zealand is … with New Zealand likely now well on the way of beating the 13.0 units consented / approved per 1000 residents per annum record of the early 1970;s Kirk Labour government era … thanks to yesterday’s joint housing presentations by the current Labour government and National Party Opposition.

    Watch the video below from 6.20 minutes in, for the concluding comments by the National Opposition Party Leader Judith Collins and the outstanding presentation by its Housing Spokesperson Nicola Willis …

    Labour and National join forces for housing crisis fix, ending decades of standoff … Thomas Coughlan … New Zealand Herald

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/labour-and-national-join-forces-for-housing-crisis-fix-ending-decades-of-standoff/Z27M7UF7QFO4RMLNR7UQBQERZI/

    According to The Economist, China’s (population clock 1.446 billion) new dwelling production had been about 15 million units per year … a build rate of 10.23 per 1,000 residents per annum … a whisker below New Zealand’s current consenting / approvals level. …

    Can China’s long property boom hold? (January 2021) … The Economist

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/01/25/can-chinas-long-property-boom-hold