Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are starting the week in mixed fashion as the latest Chinese GDP print undershoots expectations. Currency markets are holding on to their Friday night wobbles as inflation expectations are still reverberating around risk markets as the November Fed taper starts to weigh on trader’s minds. Meanwhile Bitcoin has almost matched its previous record high from April this year to make a 100% plus recovery, currently just above the $62K level:

The Shanghai Composite is down 0.5% to 3554 points while the Hang Seng Index is down about the same, or just under 0.6%, to be at 25187 points. Japanese markets are floating along with mild losses, with the Nikkei 225 about to close 0.3% lower to 28993 points while the USDJPY pair is still holding on to its Friday night gains just below the mid 114 level:

Australian stocks are the odd ones out, with the ASX200 closing 0.3% higher, but still shy of the 7400 point level, to finish at 7381 points while the Australian dollar is hovering just above the 74 handle with overhead selling quite evident, as resistance slowly builds here:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are pulling back but not as strongly as Asian bourses as we head into the London session, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing price hovering on the Fridaynight close at the 4450 point level, still well above the previous weekly close at 4400 points:

The economic calendar starts the week with the September US industrial production print.

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Comments

  1. Zali Steggall pressing ahead on her Climate Change Bill today presented to Parliament an updated draft of ready-to-go, fit-for-purpose legislation, with heavyweight support from the Australian business community.

    The main revision to the Bill is the addition of an impactful short-term target, to increase Australia’s 2030 emissions reductions on 2005 from 26-28% to 60%. This doubling of effort would put Australia back on track with the guidance from the IPCC of what’s required to deliver the Paris Agreement goals, something that the US, UK and Eu all committed to back in July.

    Watch it:
    aph.gov.au/News_and_Events/Watch_Parliament#t1-content-panel
    https://parlview.aph.gov.au/mediaPlayer.php?videoID=557853&operation_mode=parlview#/4
    Show advanced controls and download options
    Jump to timecode 10:21:36
    Mark in 10:21:36 Mark out 10:54:46

    Tabled by Zali Steggall OAM, Member for Warringah, NSW
    Seconded by Rebekha Sharkie, Member for Mayo, SA
    Seconded by Dr Helen Haines, Member for Indi, VIC

    https://climateactnow.com.au/
    https://www.zalisteggall.com.au/

    BTW, note that the amendment bill concerning the superannuation guarantee tabled with a side of antivaxxing by Craig Kelly, Member for Hughes, NSW, immediately prior to Steggall’s improved climate change bill was seconded by Milton Dick, Member for Oxley QLD!

    Recall that a few years ago Dick was ahead of most of the federal ALP coal gang, only second out of the blocks after Joel Fitzgibbon, in joining Craig Kelly’s then new parliamentary friends of coal group. Fitzgibbon is retiring but may still do plenty for coal before the coming election is called, but the AWU owned number crunching Dick is set to be a real time-serving safe ALP seat lifer who has not given any hint that he has a new position on being a coal cuddly close buddy with Kelly nor with being a tool for king coal. How Queenslandy ALP Inc it is. Follow the money.

    I suppose I shouldn’t also see connections between Clive Palmers’ Minerology big wins recently in Queensland and the ALP, Kelly, and Dick should I?

    Yep, vote for the better small parties and independents while putting the big four parties last, and any sitting big four member dead last.

  2. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    China … The bursting housing bubble …

    China Home Sales Slump 17% as Evergrande Saga Deters Buyers … Bloomberg News

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-18/china-home-sales-plunge-17-as-evergrande-crisis-deters-buyers?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google

    China’s residential property slump dragged on last month as the debt crisis at China Evergrande Group spread to other developers, keeping buyers away.

    Home sales by value tumbled 16.9% in September from a year earlier, following a 19.7% drop in August, according to Bloomberg calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics data released Monday. Real estate investment slid for the first time since the onset of the coronavirus shut swathes of the economy at the start of last year, down 3.5% from a year earlier, calculations show. …

    … “No one is buying new properties because they are getting afraid,” Helen Qiao, chief Greater China economist at Bank of America Corp, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “So we could see further downside on the economy.” …

    … Homebuyers already face the threat of declining prices after years of gains. Measures of price growth, housing starts and sales have moderated significantly in recent months, Moody’s Analytics notes in a recent report. Evergrande’s sales alone probably plunged 93% in September from a year earlier, according to a Citigroup Inc. report based on China Real Estate Information Corp. figures. China is scheduled to report home price data for 70 major cities on Wednesday. … read more via hyperlink above …

    China property shares fall even as PBOC says Evergrande woes manageable … Clare Jim and Samuel Shen … Reuters

    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-property-shares-firm-after-pboc-says-evergrande-woes-manageable-2021-10-18/

    China’s economic growth sinks in wake of Evergrande crisis, power shortages … AP / NZ Herald

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/chinas-economic-growth-sinks-in-wake-of-evergrande-crisis-power-shortages/YHLZUM4OKREMLVN5QUI453MQ74/

    Defaults loom over more property developers as China reassures investors on Evergrande … CNBC

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/18/china-property-defaults-risks-for-other-developers-pboc-on-evergrande.html

    • “Climate regulating ocean plants and animals are being destroyed by toxic chemicals and plastics, accelerating our path towards ocean pH 7.95 in 25 years which will devastate humanity.”

      Nah, Oz population will be 50 million by then. That’s how population works. It’s a target to be achieved.

      I only wish to be alive for two things: alien contact, or humanity devastated. The greatest possible shows in history.

    • Jumping jack flash

      Net zero is a doddle when you simply push all the polluting activities over to China and import all the finished items back for everyone’s enjoyment. (then ship all the broken ones back to China for “recycling”.)

      Farming and mining will be a bit tricky of course, and while most of us can simply replace all the dirty productive activities of yesteryear with nice clean debt, we will certainly need the stuff that is dug out of the ground and grown in fields to send to China for further processing.

      There will definitely be some solution where we may be able to earn credits of some kind for providing essential resources for producing all the things that everyone all over the world needs, but then again I’m probably giving far too much credit to our glorious leaders for having thought all this through.

  3. So, when China collapses and it hits Australia… does that mean ScoMo will be on a warpath and drive property by 200% ?

    Who are we shooting? China or ScoMo for destroying the Australian Society?

    It’ll be pretty much like when Kevin Rudd came to power. Liberals will have run the domestic community into the ground that Labor will be forced to sell off something ( like Australias Defence Forces ) just to keep the Domestic Economy going.

    This Extremism is ridiculous.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bw7nL5gVKEU

  4. So, in the Ireland v Netherlands match at the T20 WC, there is a guy called O’Dowd… playing for the Netherlands!

  5. Berejiklian’s relationship with MP was a ‘conflict of interest’ in grant, ICAC hears
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7-tKtfYJKbI

    ICACs got her ;p Well done ICAC. Hoorah… the witch is dead.

    John Barilaro has suddenly quit politics, leaving many to suspect that he’ll soon be investigated by the ICAC
    https://www.thebigsmoke.com.au/2021/10/04/barilaro-quits-may-be-icac-bound/

    Is he next?

    They dont quit unless they are guilty.

    Clearly they are hiding something else. ICACs investigation is just the tip of the iceberg.

    Im so sick of this crap. Bring on the election.