Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar rebounds as China slashes rates

Asian stock markets are finishing the week on a high note with green across the board in response to the continued rebound on Wall Street overnight. The reversal in USD strength has also continued, save for Yen which is weakening alongside risk markets, while gold hovers just below the $1800USD per ounce level. Meanwhile Bitcoin is having a lovely end of week breakout, lifting strongly this afternoon to almost break the $60K level, not far off its previous record high from April this year – what a recovery:

The Shanghai Composite is up 0.3% to 3567 points while the Hang Seng Index reopened from its holiday to be up nearly 1%, currently at 25170 points. Meanwhile Japanese markets are resurging strongly with the Nikkei 225 about to close 1.4% higher to 28946 points as the USDJPY pair is breaking out of its mid week base above the mid 113 level as short term momentum returns to the overbought levels at the start of the week:

Australian stocks are rallying nicely going into the end of the trading week, with the ASX200 about to close 0.7% higher as it wants to return to the 7400 point level, currently at 7359 points while the Australian dollar is hovering just above the 74 handle but without any selling evident, creating a nice base here:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are lifting strongly going into the London session, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing price building higher on its breakout above the previous 4400 point high from last week as momentum really gets a wriggle on as earnings season meets expectations:

The economic calendar finishes the week with the latest US retail sales print plus University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)

Comments

    • Probably or could things be so bad he goes for a half-Senate election by 21 May 2022 and a separate House election as late as 3 September 2022? (highly improbably according to Anthony Green)

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        If their internal polling is bad enough they will put it off as long as possible.

        • If the internal polling is bad enough Scrotum will postpone elections indefineatly .
          All due to covid risk of course.

      • C'est de la folieMEMBER

        My understanding out of a political office in Victoria today is that both sides of politics are so alive to the possibility there will be an absolutely massive pushback against both sides of mainstream politics – with polling suggesting the punters loathe ScoMo and despise Albanese too – that there is genuine fear stalking the corridors of Canberra.

          • Well if Chinese property goes down then the winner will be the party that loses the next election, whoever wins would thus be labelled “the worst economic managers” for evermore.

            I really do hope both majors tank at the next election as the people need to send a message that we are sick of the interests of a few industrial sectors being put ahead of the interests of Australia’s long term future, and then having to pay for it! (admittedly this applies more to LNP)

        • Ken oath folie, just about everyone I know under 50 hates all of those farken cnuts. The oldies still seem to like em though..
          Sadly, all still agree that house prices being high is still a good thing.

      • SHOCK ELECTION DATE PREDICTION:

        HOT TIP – SATURDAY 1ST JANUARY 2022

        Last election 31% of people pre-polled anyway – so the election day doesn’t mean anything.

        Morrison will call the election in early December – and tell everyone to pre-poll while they are in a good mood having Christmas functions and reconnecting with families. The pre-poll number will be 70-80% which advantages Morrison because he can take the wind out of any Labor campaign through December with everyone distracted anyway. I do not believe there is any law that says election day cannot be on a public holiday – so New Years Day as the final voting day works.

        Morrison will be banking on those young people who haven’t voted being too hungover or sleeping to care and get up and vote in time – further eating in Greens Labor votes as well.

        Why can’t anyone see this as a logical path to victory (yet completely unconventional) for Morrison?

        • LOL
          No one wants their holidays disturbed by a fvkn election campaign.
          Any govt who tries to do such a thing would be consigned to the dustbin.
          People HATE that sh*t.

        • I will vote against any a$$hole that takes away a public holiday with needing to line up at a school. I also want to head regional for holidays if we are all varied and don’t want to be stuck within my LGA just to vote. Be a punch in the nuts for the entire East Coast who has been stuck in their LGA through 2020 and 2021.
          Nice way to lose an election before the inevitable economic Armageddon heading our way.

    • Rat cunning

      He can see a path back to the lodge

      Net zero 2050, deep cuts 2030
      Dunno what else

      If the SDHTF on covid he’ll sail back in

      • If history has proven anything, when Federal Politicians come to QLD, they get voted out of office.

        If there’s anything QLDers hate more then self-loathing NSW / VIC fighting over each other, is a government getting off its jet plane once in a while to kiss some babys, pretending they’ve actually done something in the past 4 years. QLDers arent that dumb. Last time ScoMo came to QLD he had tomatoes thrown at him.

        Queenslanders hate politicians.

        The great thing about corruption is when you slash all the welfare and funding to a state, they are forced to live independently. That means when you pretend they actually need you, you discover they’d rather split the Federation and go there own way then have anything more to do with you.

        Threatening a State with ‘I’ll cut your funding’ when they never get any in the first place is the stupidest thing you can do. Queenslanders will just laugh.

        I think the real question is, Why does QLD need NSW/VIC? Better to just cut the cord and go our seperate ways.

        Im willing to bet if QLD goes its seperate ways and abandons NSW/VIC, the other Australian States would all leave too.

        • Your premier is being a moron but she has out politiced SFM on the hospital issue. Most voters have no idea that the state and federal investment in hospitals has risen at the same rate at the federal and national level. Your premier is running scared on borders because she has done SFA about fixing the long term problems around healthcare.

          SFM has lost Queensland, the premier has played the parochial card but will be found out soon enough when CV-19 breaches your borders along with WA, SA, TAS and NT. It’s endemic globally, to think you can remain holdouts forever is utterly moronic.

          • You think Queenslanders actually like New South Wales?

            Pretty much anything that comes from that state wrecks lives. Drugs? Gambling? Prostitution? Crime?

            We are all entitled to our opinions but as a Queenslander, give me a referendum and I’ll vote for Queensland to split off from the Federation into its own Country… primarily to rid ourselves of the virus which is New South Wales. Im sick and tired of hearing about that bloody state and frankly, I’d throw a wall around that state to keep it away from us as fast as possible.

            I love the fact that Queensland considered getting into some Helium Hydrogen thing and a week later, jealous New South Wales suddenly decided they should do it too. If NSW is going to be so jealous of our independence then maybe they shouldnt make there jealousy so obvious by ripping off our business ideas.

            As far as Im concerned, Prime Minister Annastacia Palaszczuk is running this country… and ScoMo is just a corrupt caretaker.

            Your preaching to the wrong choir 🙂

          • Amen brother Mathias!!

            Keep the cockroaches out!!

            This bankers son and his two million jimmies can fa RK right off.

  1. The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

    That the way you HODL me, HODL me, HODL me, HODL me, HODL me
    Feels so holy, holy, holy, holy, holy
    Oh God
    Runnin’ to the altar like a track star

  2. Very annoying all these paywalls. I was a paid subscriber to this site for about 1 of the five or so years I’ve been reading it. It’s a good site but if I had a paid subscription for every site that has asked for it I would be up for about $500 a month. Maybe it’s time for me to go elsewhere.

  3. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    Update … China … Developers debt and accountability …

    … As the tide keeps going out … how much more ‘hidden’ bad news will come to light ? …

    Will the debt destroy China’s housing market? The market cools down and the engine is almost dead … VIDEO … China Insights / Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzQ1J4MzRqQ

    What can destroy the Chinese real estate market is debt, without a doubt. The most widely known case is China’s second-largest housing company Evergrande Group. It has debts of more than $300 billion US dollars.

    Among the 5 trillion debt, bank loans account for the highest proportion at 46%, while bonds account for about 10%, including $217 billion worth of bonds in US dollars.

    There is a growing number of uncompleted construction projects in China. The way they get demolished and crumble is like an omen. Will China’s real estate market collapse like these unfinished developments? … VIEW via hyperlink above …

    … from September 24, 2021 … h/t PM …

    China’s Land is No Longer Gold, government Land Selling encounter Chill/Is Housing Crash Coming? … VIDEO … China Insights / Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iR8oqwrZPMU

    China Insights … Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwjvvgGX6oby5mZ3gbDe8Ug

    China Hidden Local Government Debt Is Half of GDP, Goldman Says … Bloomberg

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-29/china-hidden-local-government-debt-is-half-of-gdp-goldman-says?srnd=premium-asia

    China’s hidden local government debt has swelled to more than half the size of the economy, according to economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., who said the government will need to be flexible in dealing with this as revenue is already under pressure due to a slowdown in land sales.

    The total debt of local government financing vehicles rose to about 53 trillion yuan ($8.2 trillion) at the end of last year from 16 trillion yuan in 2013, the economists wrote in a report. That’s equal to about 52% of gross domestic product and is larger than amount of official outstanding government debt. … read more via hyperlink above …

    • Hugh PavletichMEMBER

      China … Developers debt and accountability …

      OPINION China’s new corruption investigation could exacerbate property crisis … Stephen Bartholomeusz … Sydney Morning Herald
      … google search title if blocked …

      https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/china-s-new-corruption-investigation-could-exacerbate-property-crisis-20211013-p58zln.html

      Earlier this week China’s corruption watchdog launched an investigation into 25 of the country’s biggest financial institutions and their regulators. On past experience that could have convulsive consequences.

      On Monday, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection began a two-month audit of a number of big state-owned banks, insurers, China’s bad-debt managers, the People’s Bank of China, the China Banking and Insurances Regulatory Commission, China’s sovereign wealth fund and securities regulators and exchanges. … read more via hyperlink above …

    • destroy China’s housing market

      What nonsense.

      The houses will still be there.
      The people will still be there living in them.
      Only the prices might be lower.

      What nonsense.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      “ What can destroy the Chinese real estate market is debt, without a doubt. The most widely known case is China’s second-largest housing company Evergrande Group. It has debts of more than $300 billion US dollars.”

      Who is the largest “housing company” and how are they going?

      • Hugh PavletichMEMBER

        Further Update … Update … China … Developers debt and accountability …

        … essential reading …

        China Won’t Save Evergrande for Many Good Reasons … Shuli Ren … Bloomberg Opinion

        https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-10-15/china-won-t-save-evergrande-to-prove-who-s-boss-to-its-reckless-developers

        With Chinese high-yield issues experiencing their worst selloff in a decade, murmurs are growing that China is poised to blink and relent on its property tightening measures. That hope was shattered on Friday.

        At a news briefing, the People’s Bank of China broke its silence on China Evergrande Group and said financial risks posed by distressed property developer, which is on the brink of a $300 billion debt restructuring, is “controllable.” That is a code word for “no bailouts.” The central bank tossed the blame to Evergrande. “In recent years, the company failed to manage its business well and to operate prudently amid changing market conditions,” an official said. “Instead it blindly expanded and diversified.”

        And so, China’s real estate developers are poised to enter their harshest winter ever. With over 400 tightening measures this year alone, property sales at major developers slumped by as much as 30% in September. Financing has also become impossible. Is China being too harsh on an industry that makes up 15% of its gross domestic product? …

        … So, most of those willing to live dangerously survived, and continue to live dangerously. Moral hazard has become such a big problem that some developers believe they are immortal. …

        … concluding …

        … So, there is logic to the government killing a few beasts — that is, letting some developers go bust — just so they learn a different way of doing business. Beijing, don’t blink this time. … read more via hyperlink above …

        ‘Ghost towns’: Evergrande crisis shines a light on China’s millions of empty homes … Michelle Toh … CNN Business

        https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/14/business/evergrande-china-property-ghost-towns-intl-hnk/index.html

        … extract …

        … Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics, estimates that China still has about 30 million unsold properties, which could house 80 million people. That’s nearly the entire population of Germany.

        On top of that, about 100 million properties have likely been bought but not occupied, which could accommodate roughly 260 million people, according to Capital Economics estimates. Such projects have attracted scrutiny for years, and even been dubbed China’s “ghost towns.” … read more via hyperlink above …

    • Camden HavenMEMBER

      From the outset of Evergrande problem I have opined that developers will fail everywhere that the Evergrande business model Ponzi is being used.

      My guess is that it is being used by every developers in the world, contagious and coming our way

  4. The origins of Covid (and how variants emerged) remains obscure.

    It does seem odd that EcoHealth Alliance (a group with ties to WIV) applied to US DARPA for a grant to research GoF in coronaviruses (specifically, the insertion of furin cleavage site into betacoronaviruses, which would make them more pathogenic to humans). DARPA rejected the grant application. Just 12 months later, a bat in a cave in China steals this furin cleavage site idea from the research grant.

    https://theintercept.com/2021/09/23/coronavirus-research-grant-darpa/

    The leader of EcoHealth (Daszak) quickly organised a group of scientists to write a letter to be published in Nature stating that Covid was a natural and not from a lab.

    The emergence of new variants also raises some interesting questions.
    SARS-CoV-2 appeared sometime in 2019 – unclear exactly when.
    A spike mutation appeared in February 2020, which was when it started spreading outside China. This was adaptive (increased its transmissibility). At this time, CCP and WHO were saying no person-to-person spread, and to keep international borders open.
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03361-1
    https://elifesciences.org/articles/65365

    The genome then stayed reasonably stable for the next 8-9 months.
    In late 2020, three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants (alpha, beta and gamma) emerged near-simultaneously in 3 different continents (UK, S Africa and Brazil respectively). These are shared the spike mutation N501Y. These mutations were again adaptive, and were associated with rapidly increasing case numbers in these respective locations.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7986995/

    Now its possible the virus did emerge from nature. And I guess its possible that a very similar adaptive mutation turned up simultaneously on 3 different continents. But to me this is all starting to look a bit of stretch.

    • I don’t have a problem with the three mutations appearing more or less simultaneously on different continents…just sounds like a low-hanging-fruit mutation that different populations found at the same time. As you say, adaptive.

    • Gggg BbbbMEMBER

      A long cold winter in China with reduced energy supply for heating, hence people indoors longer without adequate levels of ventilation; will provide optimal conditions for people to spread CV. A big enough pool of infected hosts increases the likelihood of a Goldilocks variant that is more efficiently spread, for longer, before symptoms become apparent.?
      A variant could be a positive as well, providing natural immunity while not as debilitating as earlier viral strains. We should be looking at this rather than supporting Pharmaceutical companies

    • Jumping jack flash

      Pff Fauci created the virus to fuel his own inflated ego. Playing with fire and the world got burned. There is no better virus adapted for human infection than this one, and nothing really close to it found in nature so far and they’ve been looking for many years, long before this all started, and since.

      Humanised bats and mice for gain of function research. What they say makes no sense, it is summarised as:
      “Oh look, heres a virus that kind of looks like it could be dangerous to humans, except that it isnt… I know! Let’s inject it into humanised mice and see what happens. For no other reason except for the good of humanity, of course. And then, we’ll release the new virus that mutates inside those humanised mice into bat colonies to see what happens as well”.

      • Reus's large MEMBER

        So right, if there was a zoonotic link don’t you think the CCP would have trotted it out quick smart to take the heat off them and the lab.

        Besides, lets look at the facts, Whuhan lab was doing gain of function research on bat coronaviruses to enable them to infect humanised mice, bat corona virus that infects humans infects workers in lab who present at hospital in Whuhan, next thing you know there is a pandemic from a bat corona virus that infects humans…….join the dots for fcuks sake.

  5. C'est de la folieMEMBER

    OK my little chickadees

    A few weeks ago when my old electric chainsaw clapped out I went and bought another on Ebay. The El cheapo ones from China. I had such a great experience of my last one, cutting up chunks of timber in my garage that I just went out and bought two.

    I received them today

    They are the same is this one advertised here (but not purchased from this advertiser)
    https://www.ebay.com.au/itm/393580216621

    My question for the cognoscenti is this.

    My old one required bar oil and had a neat little cap into which I could pour oil as needed.

    The box of the ones I purchased and received today has a nice little oil cap depiction on it, and the instruction clearly state that the chainsaw is shipped without any oil and that I should oil it and give it a rev to get the oil flowing nicely. Taking the thing apart and finding nothing which would ordinarily be a conduit into which I could pour oil, I subsequently wrote to the vendor and asked how I should add oil – noting the box and the instructions.

    Then I found the above reference to the chainsaw being advertised as ‘oil free’.

    Now at this point I concede I may have some gents in downtown China thinking to themselves that although they are being creamed as a nation by Australian iron ore and coal vendors, they have got a little something back for the Middle Kingdom by selling some schmuck a chainsaw with no capacity to oil, or possibly are enjoying a laugh that some dunderhead in Australia doesnt recognise an oil free chainsaw when he gets one.

    But for the life of me I have never heard of an oil free chainsaw and could not imagine in a million years that people would sell such without even needing to oil the blasted bar.

    Can one of you people tell me if there is such a thing, if I somehow need to oil the bar if I try to use it, or if I need to write a hostile and scathing article about the things one can be suckered into buying on Ebay – or even if I should just go out to the garage and give it a burl.

    C’EDLF

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      No one will answer you because it’s electric and people on this site are racialist against electrics. If you need to borrow some activewear I’ve got plenty.

      To answer your question, never heard of it before. Can see it wearing out real quick. Lucky you got two. Shoulda bought an EGO.

    • Gggg BbbbMEMBER

      Bar oil is nothing to do with the power source, it’s for lubrication.
      Sounds likely to be landfill pretty quick.
      Stihl 044… 20 years old and still slabbing hardwood.

      • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

        It’s kind of depressing I’m even vaguely aware of the distinction, but it will be much better expressed by you. Can you please enlighten he who shall not be named as to the difference between oiling the saw and oiling the mechanism and what the extent of the “oil free” claim might actually be. Thank you.

        • Gggg BbbbMEMBER

          The electric motor should not require oil in the fuel (standard 2stroke engines)
          But all ‘reasonable’ chainsaws have a oil well that once full lubricates the cutting chain and the bar it runs along, without lube the chain will clog with particles of wood and/or jam in the log, it is noticeable when you run out of chain / bar oil as sawing takes much more effort and it is grippy. I doubt you’ll get many hours of use out of anything that does’nt lube the chain while it is cutting.
          It can also be dangerous if it jams and kicks back at the operator. Buy a cheap 2 stroke second hand without bar or chain, you can easily replace those to your needs

    • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

      Completely unqualified to respond.

      Anyway: oil free chainsaw sounds exactly like: irritation free razor. To me.

      But you’re not going to ship them back.
      So use ’em ’til you break ’em.
      And thank you for the lols.

    • Its not a chain saw for starters – “AU 16” 2800W Electric Chainsaw Saw Chain Cutter Pruner Tree Pruning Woodworking”

      Its a pruner hence the – saw chain cutter – styled as a chainsaw body. I suspect the RPM to lop branches is so low and the Dia being cut means lubricant is not a design factor, not that its cheaper to make without. Heck it might even have some poly in the bar grove to reduced metal on metal friction.

      Obviously for light garden DIY use like Ryobi stuff, quick death with constant use on a job site.

    • Jesus Christ

      Throw them in the bin

      Then buy manly Stihl Dinosaur-fuelled Woodbosses – the moar the better

      I only have two and am only a half man consequently

      What is the light use nonsense. I cut my sourdough with the miniboss

      • Agreed. Or, do us a favor and tape the switch to ‘on’ and use it as a dìldø on your local politician of either colorature!

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      It’s a whole segment in the market that the chinamen have eked out for years, it’s a shyt chain saw with literally every corner cut off 🤣 then marketed as ‘light duty’ ….they do it with everything and contribute to nothing other then land fill

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      Bought a battery chainsaw for the Landrover
      …the memsaib doesn’t like the smell of petrol

      Damn thing struggles through anything over 8 inches but gets there ….( eventually)…still takes bar oil

      Not sure what you got there …doesn’t seem quite pucka

      • Got a Sh*tl one for the old lady, as she’s finding it difficult to pull start the trusty Husky. It’s good enough to to small jobs, still needs oil to grease the bar, but has nowhere the torque of a proper engine one. I suppose if it had a flywheel of sufficient weight it might have helped, at the detriment of overall weight and bulk.

        Not going to give away my Shindaiwa 605 anytime soon.

      • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

        I borrowed someone’s sthil electric mid-range to cut though a couple of half-diameter hard-wood sleepers. Did it easily. And quietly! I loved it but batteries are darn expensive.

    • Long story short: it’s unmitigated crapola. If it doesn’t have the need to oil the bar, it’s either underpowered to the point where you have to swing it like an axe or, it’s broken by design. Possibly both.

      Basically without lubricant, the bar and the chain wear at a scary rate and it becomes an auto-amputation device in no time at all. It won’t cut wood, but it will certainly maim flesh with impressive efficiency.

      I’d avoid using it in anger, and I’d be wary of it even new…

      Gift it to your enemies.

        • Yeah.

          I mean, I live in a corrupt country… with a corrupt government… and a corrupt media. A lot of the friends I’ve known have suicided and apparently this kind of thing in Australia is perfectly normal. ” She’ll be right mate “. I keep a few mates around but I’ve really pulled away a lot lately. There’s only so much of peoples problems that you can take… and I kind of feel things will probably get much worse in the future.

          Yeah. Men do need mates more then ever. We all try but you know… some of this stuff is far bigger then I can handle.

          I mean, I switch on TV nowadays and see woman on almost every channel. Seems like Australias trying to kill men off.

          The thing I’ve noticed with Capitalism is there’s no real social justice. It just follows the money each and everytime. Now that woman are making all the cash, the sympathy votes all going to womans issues now. Woman are ‘here to save us all’ *laughs*

          So wind the clock forward and it’ll be the Migrant Sympathy vote soon. Im just waiting for the day when we begin to see migrants all over TV with stuff like, ” Aussies are so racist. Why do we treat Migrants so badly? These lovely migrants are here to save us all. “. *rolls eyes*

          Men will be pushed to the bottom of the Capitalist pile soon.

          Many months ago, I said Hikomori was coming to Australia – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wE1UIK85E3E

          But you know… apparently that was a far fetched thing to say at the time ;p

    • This is what happens when they try and copy for a price without understanding the why. You get a chainsaw which doesn’t lubricate the bar or the chain which runs on the bar. The oil is not for the timber, it’s for the chain on bar connection. You will spend more money on bars and chains than you would have on a German/Swedish brand saw regardless of it being electric or petrol.

    • No chain brake neither. You take your life in your hands with that one. Luckily the advertised 2800w is more likely to be 500w, so it shouldn’t hit you too hard in the face. My Stihl 08 with no chain brake, on the other hand…

      • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

        He’s:
        Stood up to the Chinese.
        Done a deal for nuclear subs. With America.
        Worked out how to make money for Australia from going green.
        Is never going to run out of buyers for Australian coal.

        Saviour?
        Messiah I’m feeling inclined to go down on would be my 2c.

        Beats the shlit out of anything Keating ever achieved.

        • “Stood up to the Chinese.” – made noises

          “Done a deal for nuclear subs. With America.” – underwater F35?

          “Worked out how to make money for Australia from going green.” – make money for mates is quite narrow in distribution.

          “Is never going to run out of buyers for Australian coal.” – which starves investment into the green thing ….

          “Beats the shlit out of anything Keating ever achieved” – Keating was just the delivery boy for the Chicago school …. the resesion we had to have was just a Brazil ploy to sell off Oz to anglophone investors at mate rates ….

          • “the resesion we had to have was just a Brazil ploy to sell off Oz to anglophone investors at mate rates ….”

            I was too young & even more economically illiterate than I am now – Any links to what was sold off please Skip?

          • I’ve posted it before and it should not be too difficult to search up relevant sources, sorry but flat out with work, was onsite today and now having a Tottori on the rock* and then have to get stuck back into refurbishing the old cast/hand tooled window furniture and the front 2nd story prominent silky oak shutters on a 1930s Deco brick lower and stucco top. 90 years of paint slapped onto originally varnished silky oak, press fit joinery, no screws and only tack nails on the slats, all most like new underneath after some festool treatment. Exploded them, final sand with 150 grit, primed, put back together and final sprayed two coats = another 90+ years …. First Rule of Capitalism …. preserve it[.]

            Anyway … That is when Oz was first cracked to let neoliberalism in, timing is circa Plaza Accord [EMH distribution of Capital and birth of Shadow sector/traditional banks lost market share and started goosing C/RE to make it up], now see Hudson’s last NC post [many examples geopolitically via IMF/WB contra its initial mission], FF Howard years and his quip about citizens sleeping through his admin, everyone blinkered by equities/property inflation offsetting wages divergence from 400%+ productivity increases since the 70s in the developed world [accruing in the top %], followed by FIRE sector [professionals/PMC] and loss of basic industrial capacity and with it long term job retention [by 40 years old 11+ jobs w/ 50-ish being a legacy drama as retirement nears(outflow of funds)], GFC and largest transfer of wealth upwards in modernity, Classic post Great Depression responce, Covid = 52 card pick up with pharma industry setting public health policies for cha ching ….

          • I’m with you now. As a machinist I lived through the engineering selloff which adversely affected a lot of lives that no one cared about. I thought I missed something along the way, but you’ve covered it in more depth than I could’ve by far. Thanks Skip.

            It’s incalculably more rewarding making something or restoring it to decent original than moving money around for hollow profit, IME.

          • I’ll be very simple about this … Boomingengineering and I don’t always see eye to eye … but I will always respect his experience and knowledge about his skill in his trade, even if were completely opposite on other matters, I would not only hire him to do a job but keep him on my personal short list for those that seek information from those in the know … its a funny world …

  6. boomengineeringMEMBER

    To all,
    it’s not Evergrand et al themselves , but all the small.time investors that are going to cause the most pain by not buying due to waiting for bargains in the Evergrand etc collapse.
    China RE down 30% Beijing down 45%.

  7. WA’s borders could remain closed to NSW after international traveller announcement
    https://www.news.com.au/national/western-australia/was-borders-could-remain-closed-to-nsw-after-international-traveller-announcement/news-story/009814fb321fc53c6cbcb8efa9726633

    Mark McGowan basically saying, ” NSW has to be crazy. Once them borders open the virus is going to spread like wildfire. If we keep the borders shut now, we wont have to close em later ” lol.

    Yeah. That man… he aint dumb. He must be a fortune teller with some kind of magical superpowers… coz apparently he can see into the future.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison shuts down NSW Premier’s ‘open for business’ border announcement
    https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/nsw-home-and-hotel-quarantine-to-end-for-overseas-travel/news-story/5a7ee20469c2681bcc61207921b8c0b3

    Confusion in the ranks. Most corrupt government in history cant seem to make up its mind lol.

    Maybe this corrupt government should just do what its always done… just throw money at the problem to make it go away. There’s nothing which cant be bought off with money, right?

    • I’m wondering how many peeps are like me – love closed borders but hate internal (ie between LGAs) lockdowns.

      I also wonder how many people have connected “80% double jabs woohoo freedom” with “welcome to your 2 million new friends”.

      I know my mother and sister have, as they hear my gentle remonstrances quite often.

      Anyhoo it looks like:

      lockdowns -> 80% double jabs congrats! -> Freedom!!!! -> welcome back international students + welcome 2 million new strayans -> hello lockdowns with 2 million new strayans and 250k internationals

      • A few weeks / month ago I said, ” How do you want to die? By covid or by high house prices. From a young persons perspective, options are looking pretty much the same either way you go “.

        Yeah man. Bring on the crash.

        Time to go bush because I cant see how we’re getting out of this one – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJe7XkhnNvo

        If 2 million migrants fill up sydney, its going to be the biggest National Security Threat this Country has ever seen. I doubt ASIO’s budget will be big enough to deal with that threat.

        • “If 2 million migrants fill up sydney, its going to be the biggest National Security Threat this Country has ever seen. I doubt ASIO’s budget will be big enough to deal with that threat.”

          Mother and sister are really enjoying me “discussing” this at length. Doesn’t even do them any good avoiding the topic, I’ve got the laptop at the dinner table (not during dinner obvs, I’m not a monster).

  8. Australia reminds me of them Vampire films. They wouldnt let the guy live because he was too weak to actually function but they wouldnt let him die because apparently they didnt want him to do that either. Australias caught somewhere between Life and Death, in the gray zone of misery. Kind of like being paralyzed in a hospital bed and just staring up at the ceiling all day. Then suddenly discovering that you have an itchy toe but cant do a single thing about it becaues you cant move.

    Australia is the Un-Dead. It cant Live and it wont Die… so its basically nothing, really.

  9. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    New Zealand dwellings occupancy cost trends: Look forward to softening pricing going forward …

    … Note in particular … trends in ‘dwelling consents per 1000 residents per annum’ issued by Statistics NZ as part of its monthly building statistics reports (excel file Tables 7 and 8 for national, regional and local authority performances).

    Annualizing the August 2021 result of 4,490 consents / approvals issued nationally is 53,800 (Statistics NZ population clock 5.148 million) … a welcome 10.45 consents / approvals per 1,000 residents per annum … likely well ahead of other countries within the developed world … and rising ! …

    Big drop in Auckland’s median house price pushed the national median down by $55,000 in September … Greg Ninness … Interest Co NZ

    https://www.interest.co.nz/property/112735/big-drop-aucklands-median-house-price-pushed-national-median-down-55000-september

    https://www.reinz.co.nz/residential-property-data-gallery

    What my rent decrease can tell us about the housing market … Dileepa Fonseka OPINION … Stuff NZ

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126690874/what-my-rent-decrease-can-tell-us-about-the-housing-market

    The number of people in the country on work or student visas continues to slowly decline … Greg Ninness … Interest Co NZ

    https://www.interest.co.nz/property/112760/number-people-country-work-or-student-visas-continues-slowly-decline

  10. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    Building consents issued: August 2021 … Statistics New Zealand

    https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/building-consents-issued-august-2021

    The annual value of non-residential building work consented was $7.9 billion, up 15 percent from the August 2020 year. In the year ended August 2021, the number of new dwellings consented per 1,000 residents was 9.1, compared with 7.4 in the August 2020 year. … states Statistics NZ … read more via hyperlink above …

  11. Things going bad in the uk heading into winter.
    Psycho Boris is in let the bodies pile high mode.

    https://amp.abc.net.au/article/100562942
    Let it rip ain’t so much fun after all.

    Scummo pushing hard on boosters to prevent let it rip from derailing his chances in a March election.
    https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/coronavirus/australians-could-get-vaccine-booster-shots-by-christmas-atagi-considering-recommendations/news-story/a3b54233ffb2e3b9719efb92185fce5e

    So much for being ‘fully vaccinated’. I wonder how people will respond to a booster? I can’t imagine uptake will be great.