Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Stocks are pulling back across the region as a cavalcade of concerns create a cautious mood with fears of inflation and Evergrande’s default weighing the most. The USD remains strong against most of the risk currencies, although the USDJPY pair finally pulled back, while gold has slightly pushed higher to the $1760USD per ounce level. Meanwhile Bitcoin has paused at the $57K level, as it barrels in on its previous record high, but resistance is slowly building in the short term:

The Shanghai Composite closed 1.7% lower to 3528 points while the Hang Seng Index is follow along by taking back most of its previous surge, down 1.6% to the 24906 point level. Meanwhile Japanese markets reversed gear with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.9% lower to 28230 points. The USDJPY pair finally stopped going higher as momentum was pushing through extreme overbought levels, heading straight back to the 113 level:

Australian stocks were the relative winners, but its a moot point as the ASX200 remained under the 7300 point level, closing 0.3% lower to 7280 points while the Australian dollar is pulling back slightly after pushing right through the 73 handle previously:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are slowly tracing backwards following the poor start to the trading week, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing price heading to the ATR support level at 4330 points with the next stage of support at below 4300 points very close by:

The economic calendar ramps up with UK unemployment, the German ZEW survey and then the latest US CPI print.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)

Comments

  1. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Missus got scammed the other day. Amazon withdrawals don’t know how the scamer got her card numbers. Cut her card up and bank refunding money until sorted out.

    • Diogenes the CynicMEMBER

      This has happened to my wife a couple of times. Once it was most likely a scam reader operation running out of/near a petrol service station. The bank picked it up which is good but it is an inconvenience. I’ve learnt to have two cards, the backup for when the primary is “offline” due to fraud.

  2. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    Evergrande misses 3rd round of bond coupon payments, intensifying contagion fears … Reuters

    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/looming-evergrande-bond-coupon-payments-intensify-contagion-fears-2021-10-12/

    Chinese Developer Sinic Warns of Default as Hidden Risks Mount … Bloomberg

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-12/another-china-developer-warns-of-default-as-hidden-risks-mount

    China Developers See More Credit Rating Cuts: Evergrande Update … Bl;oomberg

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-12/dollar-bond-interest-payments-in-doubt-again-evergrande-update?srnd=premium-asia

    Sky-High House Prices Have Traders Betting Against Korea’s Bonds … Bloomberg

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-11/sky-high-house-prices-have-traders-betting-against-korea-s-bonds?srnd=premium-asia

  3. Here on the Northern Rivers, we have been released from lockdown only to discover that there are more restrictions, rules and harsh penalties attached to Open Freedom than there were under lockdown.
    According to the Health Direct Covid Restriction Checker ( don’t you love the name )
    i.e. 1 Even if you are fully vaccinated, you must not visit a home if:
    any person at the home who’s aged over 16 years is not fully vaccinated
    2 There are more than 10 other visitors at the home

    3 Any of the visitors at the home who are aged over 16 years are not fully vaccinated according to Pt.1
    ? ? ?
    Pt.3 seems contradictory. If a visitor at the home is not vaxed, they should not be there,

    • Of all the things that are not vaccines, the Pfizzler drugs are the most not vaccinelike.

      It’s odd how the meaning of the word has been corrupted so quickly, and nobody seems to have noticed.

      Meanwhile, at my work, the pressure to get the Vax is huge., but I don’t think those in charge have given the slightest thought to what they’re doing.

      • Please enlighten us. Brief description and supporting links.

        Nothing in this world makes sense anymore.
        I thought only fully vaccinated people were allowed in K-mart. Are they saying vaccines don’t work?

        “Superspreader event waiting to happen,” another remarked.

        “COVID DID NOT DISAPPEAR AT MIDNIGHT. Now let’s watch the cases spiral because too many idiots went to Kmart,” he finished.

        “I really don’t understand crowds queuing @kmart at all. Everyone could shop online during the lockdown. The behaviour is baffling,” another agreed. ….it doesn’t make sense, does it? Vaccinated people portrayed as the smart ones and now this.

        https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/real-life/news-life/fury-as-reopened-nsw-kmart-stores-flooded-with-shoppers/news-story/0b9c80212227d25c5d96c6b65a796ea4

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            You’re elitist if you think lining up at Kmart is sad and odd. Their plastic crap is no different to plastic crap from Davjd Jones!

            Allegedly.

          • It’s all relative. It might look silly from your point of view (and mine for that matter) but for them it might be one of the highlights in their life. And their only worry (in their otherwise worry free life) may be: “will K-mart remain open at least until after Australia day?”

    • Bangalow Pub last night – it’s good to go out and not worry about, I’ll avoid being indelicate, anti vaxxers

      Glad to have kids at school and know teachers are vaxxed

      At 80% things unwind even more – no masks at work amongst others

      Glad to know all coworkers vaxxed

      It’s pure risk calculus – will become a bigger consideration when Sydney-> regional travel is allowed in about 7 days.

    • I particularly love the rule that says if you work in a bookshop, you must be vaccinated, but if you work in a newsagents, you don’t need to be. WTF?

  4. I received this message from Drew Pavlou today:

    Hi, would you possibly be open to helping me run at the next election by signing up to my new political party? we have a free sign up, we just need to get it registered so we can get on the ballot paper. we are one of the first political parties in the world to really truly stand up to the brutal chinese government by running candidates from the tibetan hong konger and uyghur communities 🙂 if you are looking for a party not bought off by china look no further, all our candidates know first hand how important it is to fight for freedom

    https://www.drewpavlou.com/join

  5. Mining BoganMEMBER

    What do they mean by high latitudes? Southern coastline? Further north?

    SUBJ: SWS AURORA ALERT HIGH LATITUDES
    ISSUED AT 0723 UT ON 12 Oct 2021 BY SPACE WEATHER SERVICES
    FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

    GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS. AURORA MAY BE OBSERVED
    DURING LOCAL NIGHT TIME HOURS IN GOOD OBSERVING CONDITIONS
    AT HIGH LATITUDES.

  6. Cool anti vaxxed story. Friend’s workplace is bringing in the mandate. No jab, no job.

    Tough guys wilt and grumble but will do it. However they need to still be tough and show off all the research they did all by themselves. So they are going with the astra zucchini. No mRNA for them.

    However, two jabs is what’s needed to show up and get paid. Sooooo, they have to take an extended leave without pay. (Cue laughter from the co workers who’ve had to suffer their nonsense since these dunderheads realised that science, and more specifically, epidemiology is their true calling. Not being overpaid failed roadies.)

    On a whole this workplace has had it good. There’s also been really big hints about the policy coming in. Hints similar in size to what a 4 year year old would give about perhaps wanting ice cream after dinner.

    My favourite is a health place that was a vaccine spot that had a high number of anti vaxxed in the admin section. You can bet their scepticism disappeared once they were told no jab, no job. That was many months ago now. None have died and they now just get on with life and complain about other stuff, like not being able to go to Bali even though they’ve been double jabbed.

    • 100% relate to the health vignette

      Family members – one a nurse – who thinks like that. Pretty sure accreditation is tied to critical thought and the job is evidence based

      Anyways

      • Yes Swamp, Anyways…Time is a great master…of many things, of nature, of human choices/no choices , of laws and of medicines,of pesticides, of building materials , once thought good…..Only time will tell…And where your choice, and thoughts, and written thoughts to others will stand…The written word once meant something more than tapping on a smartphone, it was written on paper, an reflected upon, scribbled out if thought wrong, but not now, it is thrust out, sometimes in a rage, in a hatefull thought…I think , lately, there are terrible labels , thrown about, this antivaxxer being one..History is a great teacher..I fear for us all….We haven’t learnt….In fact , we carelessly fling words about.The day the written word , posted in a letter, carefully considered is gone..as so our care of community , and each other.Full stop.

  7. On September 30, 1935, in his dedication of Boulder Dam, Franklin Roosevelt said:

    We are here to celebrate the completion of the greatest dam in the world, rising 726 feet above the bedrock of the river and altering the geography of a whole region; we are here to see the creation of the largest artificial lake in the world … holding enough water… to cover the state of Connecticut to a depth of ten feet; and we are here to see … the largest generators and turbines yet installed in this country, machinery that can continuously supply nearly two million horsepower of electric energy. This morning, I came, I saw, and I was conquered as everyone would be who sees for the first time this great feat of mankind… Ten years ago the place where we are gathered was an unpeopled, forbidding desert. In the bottom of a gloomy canyon, whose precipitous walls rose to a height of more than a thousand feet, flowed a turbulent, dangerous river.… The site … was a cactus-covered waste. The transformation wrought here in these years is a twentieth-century marvel.

    president John Kennedy said:
    Thirty years ago today a dream came true. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt—in the presence of TVA’s two great defenders, George Norris of Nebraska and Lister Hill of Alabama—signed his name to one of the most unique legislative accomplishments in the history of the United States. That simple ceremony which took only a few minutes ended a struggle which had gone on for a decade. It gave life to a measure which had been vetoed twice by two preceding Presidents—Calvin Coolidge and Herbert Hoover—and in reality this act of signature was only a beginning.
    There were many who still regarded the undertaking with doubt, some with scorn, some with outright hostility. Some said it couldn’t be done. Some said it shouldn’t be done. Some said it wouldn’t be done. But today, 30 years later, it has been done. They predicted the Government was too inefficient to help electrify the valley. But TVA, by any objective test, is not only the largest but one of the best managed power systems in the United States.

    Where have all the good men gone?

  8. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    33 million years ago saw the start of a 15 million year pandemic that infected ALL mammals!
    Geez I hope these Chinese bat sniffles don’t last that long.
    8% of our DNA is virus remnants yet genes only make up 1 to 2%, the sequences that actually code for proteins.

    https://youtu.be/-M3L_Kykl6w

Leave a reply

You must be logged in to post a comment. Log in now