Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

The end of the trading week is here, with mainland Chinese stocks returning to the fray as traders await the all important Friday night US unemployment print, with Treasury yields broadcasting new four month highs. Most stock markets across Asia are putting in very solid returns in response to the breakout in both European shares and Wall Street overnight. The USD is strengthening  against most of the risk currencies, while gold fails to get going once more but is still supported above the $1750USD per ounce level. Meanwhile Bitcoin has consolidated on its surge towards the $55K level, pausing here as it barrels in on its previous record high, having gained more than 20% in the last week:

Mainland Chinese markets return from a near week long holiday with the Shanghai Composite gapping 0.8% higher but fading now going into the close, up only 0.3% to 3579 points. Meanwhile the Hang Seng Index is the odd one out, unable to follow through on its previous major surge, treading water at the 24636 point level while Japanese markets doubled down on their breakout with a near 1.8% gain by the Nikkei 225 to close at 28171 points. The USDJPY pair has helped with a new lift higher that has almost matched the previous weekly high and the 112 handle after tracking sideways at the 111.50 level:

Australian stocks are putting in a very solid end to the trading week with the ASX200 closing more than 0.7% higher again, this time at 7316 points while the Australian dollar is pulling back towards the 73 handle and below the previous weekly high in response to the reopening on Chinese iron ore markets:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are up slightly going into the London open holding on to their overnight gains, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing the breakout above ATR resistance at the 4360 point level taking a slight pause here at the 4400 point level and not yet making a new weekly high but still staving off a wider correction:

The economic calendar will focus squarely on the NFP/unemployment print in the US which will set the course for the remainder of the trading month.

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Comments

  1. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Rolled over.
    Some snide remarks from the missus.
    Can’t stand to see a grown man cry.
    Weak as pss.
    Injun rang again today and as per previous posts admission of guilt for being easily talked into things, did so once again.
    Will go Sunday to remove equalizer shaft and bronze bearings for sizing up.
    Put it down to Alzheimer’s prevention, keeping mind occupied.
    She just had another dig, weak as pss excuse , don’t stand by my convictions, the etc’s, obscenity’s.

    • The Travelling Phantom

      Rolling is good 👍 it means you are flexible and not stubborn

      Are you going to charge him before commencing work?
      And why the missus angry?

    • Get upfront payment, at least 50%…? Charge them more per hour, too…

      I’ve just raised my rates 25% in the last few months, and no one is blinking (I’m also really good at what I do, but I think it holds that there is an effective shortage of competent technical people at the moment).

    • You could get materials up front and say a quarter of labour, especially if you have done good work in the past. We have strong contracts and use period payments.

      What are your contracts like?

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        He already offered to pay 50% up front but I said the materials would have gone up since quote so new quote will have to wait till Monday as have lost my drawings to acetain costs. My hourly rate used to be dearer than my dentist 20 yrs ago but haven’t put them up since then. Now they are more than double mine. Even then my total cost ended lower than the other people at quarter my rate.

    • Guy at work says he knows 3 others that had adverse reactions to astrazenica.
      The one he knew more detail about was a 28 yo female school teacher that ended up in hospital with clots.
      Beware of pain from clots even months after the second jab.
      Better to wait for an alternative if you can.
      Working around dodgy indians is just dodgy.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      When you’re digging inside their damnable machine make sure you leave behind some sort of explosive contraption that can be detonated remotely. If they dont pay then kablooey.

      Kablooey.

    • Mate I F’ing hate working with these types, not to be getting on your case but it just isn’t worth the hassle.
      At some point one has to make the decision to never work with them again and be true to the decision, it’s a hard lesson to learn but a very important one.
      I wasted way to much of my life thinking that this sort of response made me just another an A-hole only to learn that it actually garners their respect.

      • I’m with you. Started my business back in 2012 when the iron ore went to crap (Perth), doing contracts and project management stuff for small guys, 10-20 mil turnover per year. The amount and level of grind, just to get paid, was incredible. Never saw anything like that in my life, and I have 25+ years of experience in the sector. Almost all “commercial managers” were wet behind the ears 20-something types, who had no qualms about bankrupting long-standing businesses, some 30 years at work, just to get a “win”. Appalling.

        Ran for 5 years, in the end, after all clients just gave up, went to work for state government. Still sh1ts me though.

  2. It’s been an interesting 18 months. We have more advances treating viral pneumonia than we have ever before. New treatments that mitigate infection continue to roll out. Which is great.

    Here’s the thing though.
    CCP has been studying coronaviruses for many years. “To better understand and develop treatments in case there is ever an outbreak…..”
    So what exactly has CCP contributed to the fight? – just the virus and 2 subpar vax.
    Meanwhile USA (of course) and also UK are doing the heavy lifting with vaccines and therapeutics.

    Strange isn’t it?

    I mean a nice BSL-4 lab. World leading scientists who have devoted their careers studying coronaviruses. Years of research. Generous funding.

    So you would think they had learned something useful. Right?

    • “Meanwhile USA (of course) and also UK are doing the heavy lifting with vaccines and therapeutics.”

      Ahahahahhahahahahhahahahhaha~~~~

      The billions spent are for profits in perpetuity and not health care related or did you miss the fact that there is no such animal as sterilizing immunity for covid, but it was deployed as PR propaganda once the pharma corporatist took over the nations health directive, steve is stoopid. Do you realize the billions spent could have been used to sort everyone out whilst a handle was gotten on covid information and still have a fair whack of change left over, but no the private equity health business and pharma just saw $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ ….

      Its like Obama care all over again, cough …. Romney Care …. cough … Heritage foundation care … hows that bilge working out for the mopes in the U.S. and U.K. … wow …

      • That’s how capitalism works. Reward follows risk.

        I am as big a cynic of Big Pharma as exists.
        But dexamethasone is cents a shot. That’s one of the best news stories to come out of this.
        Sotrivamab is ~ $2000 per shot. Peanuts if it keeps someone out of hospital for 7 days.
        And the vax were always highly unlikely to stop mucosal infection / colonisation / transmission. Look at the original design brief. The intent was to prevent invasive / serious disease. They have done that – although may not hold up against née variants.

        Anyway, what has CCP contributed? Other than the virus.

        • What is this thing you call Capitalism because I don’t ascribe to the wing nut Austrian old testament PR corporatist propaganda version of it, you know the ones that set up all the factors which then blows up in everyone’s faces and the only solution to such is austerity for the underclasses ….

          FFS China is only doing what FDR did in his day to stop everything from imploding to save the capitalism of uplift for all and not just a few ….

          • I can’t let that slide.
            FDR adopted an inflationary policy from 1933 that stimulated US domestic consumption and global growth.
            China on the other hand returned to form and as they have done since the early 00’s acted as a drag on global economic activity, last year stealing $330B worth of demand from the rest of the world and passing Germany as the largest CAS.

            That is after making workers in the West sick, they then decided to steal whatever jobs were left.

          • What kinda of mangled perspective is that sweeper, oh the one when China does not bend the knee after the East India Corp experience, abandoned post WWII so the remnants fled to Taiwan, or the stampeded by western investors to the biggest untapped market on the planet for a quick buck ….

            Its all crying in ones beer mate … yet who exported jobs for the lower classes to buff equity whilst politically funded think tanks spewed rubbish to forward that agenda … 600 plus billionaires …

          • Look the comparisons need to improve.
            The rule of the British East India Company and British Empire in India provided the raw materials and markets for industrialization in Britain.
            China’s rigged exchange rate policy and flouting of all trade rules accelerated de-industrialisation in the West.
            in other words, if there is an entity today engaging in industrial level robbery of resources and property (as some may attribute to the EIC) by gaming the system it is China – with the qualification that in return they aren’t building railways, roads, upending the land owning aristocracy, brutal Mughul emperors etc.

          • Your off your nut … china has not ruled anything during the neoliberal era …. the U.S. has had a policy of cramming down labour since Reagan, exacerbated by NAFTA Billy, and a negative CAD means exporting jobs for fluffing paper for the over classes …

          • You are the one who raised the EIC. I just responded to it.
            Why is it so hard to hold 2 ideas in your head at the same time.
            The collapse of Social Democracy and attacks on unions in the West has been a disaster made much worse by China’s policy of deindustrialisation in the West.

          • Prove it considering neoliberal orthodox economics was in the drivers seat since the 70s when china was a state capitalistic nations without force projection.

          • It’s because in foreign policy terms the US was asleep to what was happening in China (or was distracted in the middle east) and the threat that was building.

          • WTF are you on about Sweeper … no force was applied to western investors aka they all went in with savvy mad skills and now some are right back to pre GFC with ratings agency dodgyness due to eversomethingoranother and pissing their pants …. then you get all done about Keating selling off the state silverware … wtf …

          • I don’t argue special interests (Wall St) have done well out of it, just that the political class in Washington meant to serve the nation have not made it a focus of foreign policy. Though that looks to be changing.
            I’ve been amazed at how long China has bee allowed to get away with it to be honest.
            in 07-08 they responded to a global downturn primarily caused by themselves pushing capital uphill by running a CAS around 10% of GDP
            In 2020 they responded to global downturn and pandemic completely caused by themselves by running the largest CAS in the world.
            And the developed world is mean’t to sit there and continue to politely discuss human rights?

          • considered (not knee jerk) focus on china is because I can see through ideology and labels and understand foreign policy “weight” as my friend Keating would say.
            Now its your turn.

          • China has not been driving the worlds economic agenda fkwit …. that distinction is the U.S. and the U.K. with a side of the E.U. since post WWII. To insinuate otherwise is a form of agnotology to befuddle the minds of the lower classes to push a corporatist agenda.

            Your not a Keynesian by any stretch of the meaning, Vichy new/neo anglophone corporatist would be a better term.

          • labels labels labels.
            yet nil historical context.
            I answered your question, don’t do an 007 and ignore mine?

          • Because the commenter is pushing and ideological barge without any realistic facts to support the argument aka propaganda, hence the egregious term of stoopid*.

        • PalimpsestMEMBER

          Without the public funded research – the vaccines and drugs would never have been developed. That is the part Oz doesn’t get, and why we are falling behind in tech and biotech.

          • Summary

            Pfizer, the largest pharmaceutical company in the world, was founded in 1849. It has been prosecuted for illegal marketing and misleading advertising for a number of drugs like arthritis drug Bextra (valdecoxib), Centrum multivitamins, bladder drug Detrol (tolterodine), anti-epilepsy drug Neurotonin (gabapentin), statin medication Lipitor (atorvastatin) and kidney transplant drug Rapamune (sirolimus). It paid the U.S. government $2.3 billion in 2009 after pleading guilty to the illegal marketing of Bextra. The company was also sued in Nigeria for conducting drug trials with trovafloxacin, an experimental antibiotic, during a meningitis epidemic in Nigeria in 1996 without getting permission from their parents, dozens of whom died subsequently.

            Pfizer also sold Bjork–Shiley valve, a defective heart valve, that led to the deaths of hundreds of people. Pfizer has been sued for paying over 5,000 doctors to take trips to the Bahamas, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the mainland U.S., to listen to lectures about Bextra. The company has also been in the news over its lobbying in Australia, Germany, Japan and the U.S. against a temporary waiver for COVID-19 vaccine patents that would have helped meet global demand in 2021, as well as funding medical experts to support its position.

            https://www.corpwatch.org/company/pfizer

          • No fkwit … a good public health care system payed by government fiat … and not the lusty demands of absentee investors seeking yield for social status style points and call it capitalism …

          • no one is calling it Capitalism.
            patents are an obvious intervention which a die-hard libertarian would hate. And it serves the same purpose as a tax.

            Edit: I just re-read that. “payed by government fiat”. ie. MMT. in other words developers aren’t even promised a reward set aside via taxation, just rapidly depreciating paper.

          • Tell that to Microsoft and folding in the browser for free to the OS … and now all humanity has to suffer his antics …

    • Interesting take and I do honestly value your opinion.
      Frankly I have no idea what the Chinese medical system has contributed to the understanding and treatment of Covid 19, however it is worth saying that they’ve shown the world how to eliminate Pandemic Viruses (and not just on this one occasion)
      Maybe preventing the spread of novel viruses is something that Western Medicine needs to take a little more seriously. Simple prevention measures like face masks weren’t at all new in China, yet it took about 6 months before western medicine / western politics decided that wearing masks in public might be a worthwhile step if only to slow the progression.
      Possibly had the Chinese been a little less good at eliminating the virus they might have had more opportunity and greater reason to solve the virus treatment issues.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        The US has shown it is very good at solving problems by throwing money at freewheeling technical creativity, while China has demonstrated it can apply solutions that require coordinated action across an entire population.

        Mutually exclusive states of being?

    • “So what exactly has CCP contributed to the fight? – just the virus and 2 subpar vax”

      Not just that, they have also delivered a
      – politicized WHO unable to respond to a pandemic
      – nil cooperation in letting experts into Wuhan to figure out the origin
      – fanciful story on the origin which still doesn’t check out, and almost certainly mean’t the response in the West was undermined
      – complaints when the borders were closed
      – dash for the Wests PPE leaving them short of masks
      – faulty test kits and masks returned back to the West
      – an export led strategy during a time when Western governments were supporting their economies. That is Western taxpayers propped up China even though they caused the slump – reverse reparations.
      – trade as a diplomatic weapon

    • I would add
      1. An inexplicable 12-day delay telling the world this was another coronavirus. They had to know it was another CV, but this 12 days ensured international spread.
      2. Getting every important call wrong. No person to person spread (until it was exported round the world). Then asymptomatic P2P (which drove lockdowns).
      3. Concerted propaganda designed to spook the WHO and the west – which worked brilliantly. The biggest PSYOP in history.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLdwCdyiDCw
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6o6ZzBULLAs
      These scenes were only seen in Wuhan. No where else. Just Wuhan. Despite much higher fatalities elsewhere.
      4.Misleading medical information. I sat through Chinese webinars “teaching us how to manage C19.” Catastrophically wrong recommendations to use ventilators early. This overturned 20 years of medical advances of non-invasive ventilation. Plus nowhere had enough vents – so we ordered more (from China). We were told C19 was different. Bull. Doctors in NYC in April 2020 recognised this “mistake”, but this came too late to prevent a lot of unnecessary deaths in Italy and elsewhere,.
      5. Ridiculous videos showing the amount of PPE supposedly required. At the same time they stripped Australia and elsewhere of their own PPE.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSTDmkftc1I
      6. Delays releasing their morbidity ad mortality data – although this too was misleading.

      • 7. Arresting doctors and whistleblowers
        8. Having a super-spreader CCP banquet in Wuhan
        9. Allowing international flights out when they knew there was person to person contagion.
        10 Allowing 5 million people to leave Wuhan before lockdown
        11. Sitting on the confirmation that they were dealing with a pandemic.

        • I don’t believe that eye doctor story.

          Li Wenliang. A 35 yr old eye doctor noticed Covid. Talked about it. Got arrested by Police and had to sign statement. Then got C19. Then died. Then didn’t die after all. Then did die – for real this time.
          Really?
          Sure got a lot of attention.

          China claimed a lot of young Wuhan doctors died from C19. 4 younger than 50.
          Statistically implausible given what we know about the CFR in that age group.
          But the publicity served its purpose and scared everyone

  3. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    China: Developers sales plunge …

    China Developers’ Sales Plunge as Evergrande Crisis Spreads … Bloomberg

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-08/china-developers-sales-plunge-as-evergrande-contagion-emerges

    Major Chinese developers saw their sales plunge last month as China Evergrande Group sank deeper into crisis, putting more pressure on the government to limit the fallout.

    Combined contracted sales by the country’s top 100 real estate companies plummeted 36% to 759.6 billion yuan ($118 billion) in September from a year earlier, deepening a downward spiral emerging in July, China Real Estate Information Corp. said in a report. More than 90 developers saw a decline in their sales from a year ago, with 60% of them recording a drop of more than 30%, according to the report. … read more via hyperlink above …

    Evergrande Woes Are Spreading to China’s $12 Trillion Local Market … Rebecca Choong Wilkins and Ailing Tan … Bloomberg

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/china-credit-tracker/?srnd=premium-asia

    After months of resilience in the face of concern over China Evergrande Group, the country’s $12 trillion domestic credit market has begun to show signs of strain.

    According to Bloomberg’s China Credit Tracker, which uses public and proprietary data to measure conditions in local and offshore credit markets, stress levels rose in both yuan and dollar-bond markets last month. That reflects growing alarm that the liquidity crisis at Evergrande will spill over to other developers as President Xi Jinping maintains measures to cool the property market. … read more via hyperlink above …

    Chinese property bonds, shares slump as Evergrande angst spreads … Andrew Galbraith and Vidya Ranganathan … Reuters

    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinese-markets-return-break-more-evergrande-angst-2021-10-07/

    Evergrande Woes Spread to China’s $12 Trillion Local Market … VIDEO … Bloomberg / Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vCzeKUKdPY

  4. Jumping jack flash

    Ive often thought about this, starting around 2010/11. Not sure what started me thinking about this, probably an earthquake and a morbid fascination with space weather…

    Edit: oh that’s right, it was that japanese earthquake that blew up their reactor. It was curiously close to some space weather as well.

    anyway, I’ll just leave this here.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-67860-3
    https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/440/20210920-coronal-hole-faces-earth.html
    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/earthquake-magnitude-56-strikes-near-melbourne-australia-gfz-2021-09-21/

  5. Has anyone been watching the NSW supreme court hearings regarding NSW health orders. I have only just heard of it and someone sent me this quote from facebook.

    For those that may have not been following the Supreme Court hearings over the past couple of weeks against Hazaard and the NSW Government:
    As per my earlier post, Kristine McCartney is a big key player in this whole story.
    • Today, along with 20,000 + other Australians I watched the Supreme Court case continue in NSW against the government for the rollout of mandatory vaccines
    • The barrister asked Kristine McCartney a few questions today (the player behind the scenes that insisted we lock down our state and mandate vaccines as the only solution)
    • Barrister – ‘Is it true that double vaccinated people are 13 times more likely to catch and spread the virus?
    • Kristine – Yes
    • Barrister – ‘Are vaccines dangerous at all to pregnant women or those planning to fall pregnant?’
    • Kristine – Yes
    • Barrister – ‘Is it true that the vaccines have never been studied for effectiveness and safety’?
    • Kristine – Yes, they have never been fully studied
    • We are patiently waiting for what was meant to be the final hearting today and it’s looking promising that the Judge Thomas Beech Jones will put a stop to the mandatory rollout of the vaccines
    • Judge Thomas Beech Jones also stated that the government suppressed the medication to the population and the government made people believe there was no way out of this unless we all get the vaccine

    Is this transcript true?

      • I didn’t think so, particularly the 13 times more likely part. Being that you’ve watched it or read an accurate account do you have a link for it? I can’t find one anywhere.

          • That’s not the court stream thing this facebook guy is talking about. Did you actually see it or read a transcript or not? If not how do you know she didn’t say that?

            Does anyone here know where there is a video of this court hearing?

        • PalimpsestMEMBER

          What this does tell you though is the person that shared it didn’t ask the basic question you had the good sense to… and the person that actually originated the post may have made stuff up and not in good faith. You now have a measure of that channel’s credibility. Always useful to know. Still useful to follow if you want to know what a vocal activist group is saying. I don’t want to go that far out myself, and I really have problems dealing with people that will make up a claim that a perfectly sensible person, reputable even, made such a ridiculously false statement. Am I that far out of line to believe that there is truth that matters.

  6. To the anti vaxxers, from Adam Smith:

    “Such regulations may, no doubt, be considered as in some respect a violation of natural liberty. But those exertions of the natural liberty of a few individuals, which might endanger the security of the whole society, are, and ought to be, restrained by the laws of all governments; of the most free, as well as of the most despotical. The obligation of building party walls, in order to prevent the communication of fire, is a violation of natural liberty”

    • They don’t care.

      You like them up with Smith, Hume, Paine and all the other texts that their world has been built upon and they’d still refuse to acknowledge that the world we live in is a nuanced place made up of greys. There are only blacks and whites at the edges of the spectrums of ideas.

    • To the anti vaxxers
      prevent the communication of fire

      Are you suggesting that these current Covid vaccines prevent the spread of the virus as well as a fireproof wall stops the spread of fire?

      • Sick burn, Claw. I sometimes wonder if the people going around using Anti-Vaxxer as a slur for their countrymen who are more accurately anti-mandate, anti-passport or vaccine-selective, ever reflect on the aspect that they themselves could be seen to be shilling for global pharmaceutical mega-Corporations and collaborating with an unelected police vassal state. Makes you go hmm.

    • No doubt the Sydney hospitality industry has learnt from the troubles of their American peers and factored in the higher wages needed to attract staff in a tight market. Because, being the beacons of market capitalism that they are, they would have realized that a contraction in supply makes a resource more valuable, thus pushing up its worth.

      Or, as some wit pointed out, since the entrepreneurs are the wealth creators why do they even need staff? Can’t they just create wealth?

      • It’s just like the 2 week lockdown. They can’t tell the truth anymore.
        The vax becomes innefective after time for everyone, not just immunocompromised. They are merely the thin end of the wedge to get it in and build support for it. Why do you think the government stopped saying “fully vaxxed” months ago and switched to “Double vaxxed”. That was the point the decision that everyone had to have booster shots was made, the announcements now are mere marketing/propaganda.

  7. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    The irresistible attractions of lower housing and living costs … and convenience …

    … People and businesses will not tolerate poor quality governance and public services …

    Tesla’s Texas Move Is Latest Sign of California Losing Tech Grip … Kara Wetzel, Romy Varghese and David R. Baker … Bloomberg / Yahoo Finance

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-texas-move-latest-sign-235015870.html

    … extracts …

    … Tesla Inc.’s move from Silicon Valley to Texas marks the latest blow for California, the electric-car maker’s home since its founding 18 years ago. It joins companies including Oracle Corp., Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. and Charles Schwab Corp. in relocating their corporate hubs to the cheaper and more tax-friendly Lone Star state in the past two years. …

    … California’s Association of Realtors forecast this week that the state’s median single-family home price will jump to a record $834,000 next year, more than twice the national level. The median sale price of homes in Santa Clara County — the heart of Silicon Valley — was $1.66 million in August, an almost 11% jump from a year earlier, according to the industry group. …

    … “The tech sector is so big that Texas can grow and we can grow,” said Stephen Levy, director and senior economist of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto. But “the exoduses do have a real concern if they’re based on the high housing prices and lack of housing.” … read more via hyperlink above …

    Elon Musk announces Tesla’s headquarters will move to Austin … VIDEO … kxan

    https://www.kxan.com/news/business/elon-musk-announces-teslas-headquarters-will-move-to-austin/

    https://www.newgeography.com/content/007210-the-great-office-refusal … Joel Kotkin … The Tablet / New Geography

    https://www.newgeography.com/content/007210-the-great-office-refusal

    PwC to employees: Work for us, live anywhere … Wendell Cox … New Geography

    https://www.newgeography.com/content/007205-pwc-employees-work-us-live-anywhere

  8. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    China: The property Ponzi party is over …

    “Catastrophic” Property Sales Mean China’s Worst Case Scenario Is Now In Play … Zerohedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/catastrophic-property-sales-mean-chinas-worst-case-scenario-now-play

    No matter how the Evergrande drama plays out – whether it culminates with an uncontrolled, chaotic default and/or distressed asset sale liquidation, a controlled restructuring where bondholders get some compensation, or with Beijing blinking and bailing out the core pillar of China’s housing market – remember that Evergrande is just a symptom of the trends that have whipsawed China’s property market in the past year, which has seen significant contraction as a result of Beijing policies seeking to tighten financial conditions as part of Xi’s new “common prosperity” drive which among other things, seeks to make housing much more affordable to everyone, not just the richest. …

    … With that preamble in mind, we bring readers’ attention to a little noticed report in Shanghai Securities News, citing China Real Estate Information Corp. research (link), which revealed that more than 90% of China’s top 100 property developers’ sales declined in September by an average of 36% from the same period last year. According to the report:

    • Sept. sales totaled 759.6b yuan ($118BN), down 36.2% from September 2020 and 17.7% lower from the same period in 2019, deepening a downward spiral that started in July
    • Among companies, 60% of developers saw sales decrease by more than 30% y/y in Sept.
    • Beijing, Shenzhen and Guangzhou saw transaction volume of residential properties decline 30% y/y, while Shanghai fell 45% …

    … concluding …

    … So while some observers have compared Evergrande’s woes to the epic collapse of Lehman, the truth is that the coming default is just the trigger event whose downstream effects would pull down the entire Chinese bubble house of apartments cards, something the latest housing data show is already in play. Because at the end of the day, no Ponzi scheme can continue if the participants lose faith in a favorable outcome, and at $62 trillion China’s housing sector is the world’s biggest Ponzi scheme. Which is why other experts have said this isn’t a Lehman Brothers moment— it could be far worse, if one views China’s gargantuan real estate sector as rotten to the core.

    Which it is.

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