Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

The trading week continues to flip and flop between hope and fear in Asia with another red day across stock markets as the selloff in bond markets becomes more crucial going into Friday nights US unemployment print. The USD is gaining against most of the currencies, not helped by the expected hike from the RBNZ this afternoon which has sent the Aussie dollar back slightly. US stock futures are indicating a poor start for Wall Street while gold pulls back to the $1750USD per ounce level. Meanwhile Bitcoin has consolidated on its surge above the $50K level, pausing here at just above $51K as is clears recent resistance highs:

Mainland Chinese markets remain closed for a holiday while the Hang Seng Index pulled back to finish 0.5% lower at just below the 24000 point level while Japanese markets continued their sell mode with the Nikkei 225 closing 1% lower to 27528 points. This despite the USDJPY pair pushing higher and almost hitting last week’s high at the 112 handle as reaches the 111.80 level:

Australian stocks reversed their previous gains with the ASX200 closing nearly 0.6% lower to 7206 points while the Australian dollar followed the Kiwi after the RBNZ hike, pulling back to the start of week position at the 72.60 level, continuing to reject overhead resistance at the 73 handle proper:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures have retraced much of the previous sessions gains as we head into the London open, with both major markets still poised at monthly support as the four hourly chart of the S&P500 shows. ATR resistance at the 4360 point level is still holding true from the start of the week and a lack of support at the 4250 point level still could see this turn into a full proper correction:

The economic calendar includes a couple Federal Reserve member speeches and the latest private jobs data as we head into Friday’s NFP print.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


    • Pettis has been getting straight to the nub of issues on twitter and it’s hard not to read his comments on China’s property bubble without just transferring them straight to Australia.

      The other interesting thing I’ve noticed across the interwebs is how the current concern about the financialization of real estate in America is leading to tweets and memes on the topic. Maybe if it becomes a big deal over there we’ll start to recognise the issue as a denial of a basic need over here. Probably not, but one can hope.

    • Restoration Australia did a Mid Century House.
      I found it actually a bit emotional if I’m honest. Because tearing down these old abodes is like pissing on history, but also the effort someone went to to build a decent home, and the openness of the home to the neighbourhood. It got me thinking how insular we’ve become now with McMansions gated to the hilt and out of the sight of any neighbours.

      When my mum sold her house in Caulfield the new owners moved in, erected massive fences and basically told the neighbours they are not interested in engaging with them and want their privacy. I thought it very weird. But that’s how the new money is these days.

      I am just glad I live in an area where I seem to have good neighbours. I think a humble home is far nicer than the McMansion rubbish everyone seems to want now.

  1. Fishing72MEMBER

    I’ve got a block of land in WA. My neighbour there rang me and told me prices have jumped substantially in the last few months. I got an appraisal from a couple of real estate agents and it’s worth a lot more than I thought. With land tax coming, potential interest rate rises and responsible lending laws I feel like it could be a good time to sell. Though I’ve got no alternative use for the money. The land is safe investment as it can’t burn, get eaten by white ants etc but I’m thinking the market is about to sour for an extended ( years ) period. I know the government will do anything to prevent this happening but…

    Vox poll….sell or no?

    Appreciate any responses. Thanks.

    • IMO you need to work out what you’ll do with the money first. Until then Hold. Once you work out what you would do with the money then let the wiser folk on here also critique that risk.

    • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

      Dear dog man. Assuming you read aa much here as much as you post 😉, then none of the following is a surprise… If it’s *that* big and it’s worth x+n now it’s going to be worth at least x+(n*2) once they start building anything around it. At least.

    • Don’t sell raw land unless it’s farm land. People value instant gratification and pay above odds for a place with a nice house. Lots of good prefab options. Your work is to get the house approved, built and landscaped.

      If you are going to keep it barren, hold and hold and hold. If it’s genuinely worth anything now it will be worth a lot more in 10-20yrs.

    • I don’t understand what’s racist about it? If you don’t support China or the CCP the best way to stop supporting them is to stop buying things made in China. It’s not racist. It’s politically motivated.

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      “The owners had started to enact those plans with demolition half way complete, but a change of heart has seen them now take the semi to auction.”

      Paid too much (borrowed ). Couldn’t borrow anymore

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