Josh Frydenberg revs mass immigration engine

As expected, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has indicated that the federal government will ramp-up Australia’s migrant intake to boost ‘growth’:

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said a change in immigrant numbers and composition was being considered…

“This [immigration] will impact upon the economy, and including the ageing and the demographics of our population because we know that migrants tend to be of a younger age than the broader population,” Mr Frydenberg said.

“These are obviously issues that I’m thinking through and the government is thinking through, both in terms of the size and the composition of our migration program”…

In the same article, Fitch warned that the economy would be smaller with less immigration (no shit sherlock – less people means less aggregate growth) and would put upward pressure on wages (so immigration does lower wages after all!):

Fitch Ratings said Australia’s growth over the past four decades had been fuelled by migration, but the shock of the pandemic meant the country would pay a major economic price as immigrant numbers remained low.

So large is the hit, the agency believes the economy will be 2 per cent – or more than $40 billion – smaller by 2026 than it otherwise would have been because of the drop in migrant numbers.

“The migration shock has been rapid and we think it will take years for pre-pandemic patterns to resume. This will have huge consequences on the economy, knocking near-term potential growth and building underlying wage and inflation pressure,” the agency said.

The agency suggests this could lead to the Reserve Bank hiking interest rates earlier than 2024, particularly with labour shortages driving up wages and inflation.

It was Albert Einstein who said “we cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them”. The commenters on the article, who are overwhelmingly opposed to lifting immigration, seem to understand this principle.

Today’s report from the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s (ACCI) lamented that Australia’s productivity and GDP growth has been “dismal” over the past decade:

“Domestically, the economy has become more dependent on the accumulation of debt. Dismal productivity growth, low inflation, greater wealth inequality and low wage growth are constraining economic growth”…

The same can be said about Australia’s growth in real per capita disposable income, which was the lowest in the OECD between 2014 and 2019:

Real household disposable income

Both occurred during a period of historically high net overseas migration (NOM), most of which was supposedly ‘skilled’:

Australia's net overseas migration

Thus, rebooting immigration back to or above its pre-COVID level is the definition of insanity and will create exactly the same results: crush-loaded infrastructure, more debt, lower productivity, and lower wage growth.

The only parties that will benefit from this mass immigration madness are the wealthy owners of capital and the ‘growth lobby’ cabal of Big Property, Big Retail, Big Banking and the edu-migration industry.

Sadly, in the morally corrupt kleptocracy of Australia, these lobbyists pull the policy strings.

Unconventional Economist
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Comments

  1. If the ALP lose this election, they will have no one to blame but themselves. The LNP have given them an open goal with width of the pitch and as high as the grandstand.

  2. Well hope they’re all coming to Melb, cause that’s all its got to keep house prices up and baristas pumping.

  3. Not many fans for this proposal in the comments on The Age. Why Albo doesn’t take advantage of this is one of life’s mysteries. Maybe he’s not hungry to be in the top job.

      • Absolutely Pessimist. Who could forget Bill Shorten taking negative gearing reform to last election and lost. Quiet Australians don’t want lower house prices. If lowering immigration rate means decreasing property prices then they don’t want a bar of it. If Lib come out and say they want less immigrants they will surely lose the election. Just ask Bill.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      It’s all about not having the Media establishment not turn on you.
      The establishment media makes Pauline Hanson the face and spokesperson for lower immigration in Australia BECAUSE she is so inarticulate and incompetent an individual.
      Making her the face of the argument for decreased immigration is an intentional strategy of the Big Australia lobby.
      The establishment is not going to give a lower immigration platform to someone who is articulate and does a good job of arguing for lower immigration. Look how they blackballed Dick Smith.
      If Labor did go hard on lower immigration the Conservative and Progressive factions in our media establishment would close ranks and attempt to have Such a Labor policy painted as being both racist and disastrous for the economy. (House prices!)
      These narratives would be deployed to intentionally drown out any lower immigration policy proposals put forward by Labor.

      Still I’d rather see my party lose fighting for pro working class policies rather than winning by playing it safe sucking up to Australian corporate plutocracy.
      That kind of sucking up is anathema to the whole tradition of the labour movement

      • kierans777MEMBER

        Spot on. In my regular sparring over others over wanting Labor to kill Big Australia, it’s pointed out to me that the media will paint Labor as economy killing buffoons.

        I must admit I don’t have a good counter to that. Maybe we need a grassroots movement to take off outside of the MSM for this to change.

    • Labors Bill Shorten put in an interesting proposal to build 100,000 or so houses over 10 years ( something like that ).

      Not a bad idea except while Aussies where homeless, you could clearly see Labor just wanted to hand free houses out to migrants as a sweetener for them to come to Australia. The idea was to just let Australians rot while we give free houses to foreigners. Its no surprise they lost the last election. That policy was horrendously sneaky.

      As a Queenslander who cares little for anything that happens in Canberra on a good day, Im a little confused as to why Liberal and Labor hate Australians so much and have practically sentenced segments of the population to death. I mean, how do these idiots expect this to end?

      Its nice to focus on the 4% of Australians who are unemployed ( based on bullsh*t stats and erroneous counting ) but what about the 14% of Australians who are literally disconnected from the system because they seriously dont give a toss anymore.

      Canberra has effectively become an enemy of the Federation… and its hard to not see it as such. They dont even respect our own Defence Forces anymore who have made it abundantly clear what consequences these decisions are going to have.

      ASIO’s made it abundantly clear that this is the dumbest decision in human history
      https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-19/asio-warning-about-foreign-spies/100552148

      The greatest threat to Australia are Foreign Spys and here we go opening the door and letting in the very enemy for whom makes Australia unsafe.

      It seems that we are happy to sell out our sovereignty to foreign spys, for the immediate short term benefits that one or two people can get paid. It doesnt matter if the entire country ends up dead, as long as one or two people can grab the cash and make a run for it now. Either that, or the unthinkable is happening and our Politicians have literally sold out ( which I think is more likely the case ).

  4. It was interesting to read the comments on the article. Rarely have I so many comments saying a similar thing. Basically saying how dumb the reboot of immigration plan is.
    One can only hope that this is reflected at the ballot box next election.

    • Will they remember this when the time to vote comes or they want perpetual increase in their property value?

    • Seldon PlanMEMBER

      Agreed – The comments following this article were all sensible and countered every argument in the story. I was quite buoyed by the public responses.

      • Comments BTL or on bloody Reddit are not going to change anything. If you’re not being disparaged on the front pages of the MSM, nothing’s going to happen.

  5. “the agency believes the economy will be 2 per cent – or more than $40 billion – smaller by 2026 than it otherwise would have been ”

    So what, nearly all of it will be non productive growth which will also lower living standards. What we need is productivity growth, something that the high immigration model has failed spectacularly to achieve, as anyone who looks at the figures knows.

    I really hope the excessively high immigration policy they have run & will now turbo charge leads to term being wiped out on a WA scale. Those surveys show that if we can make it an issue in the election, this could happen. (yeah, I’m an eternal optimist! 😜)

    • Strange EconomicsMEMBER

      They are terrified of wage inflation leading to higher interest rates.

      Even if with excessive immigration, GDP per capita and wages will be lower.
      Never mind that,
      lower wages = low interest rates forever, = higher house prices.

      Considering that no-one believes they are working class – everyone thinks we’re all gonna be rich – people are existing, aspirational (or overoptimistic parent funded future FHBs) house owners, so higher house prices is the winning tactic for the election.
      Bad luck the rest of yous.

      Where is Albo? silent . Still celebrating a shared $ 1 million profit in 7 years on his investment property sale, supported by low rates, negative gearing and immigration.

  6. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Oh for those lovely dappled days just after covid broke out when there was talk of remodeling the economy .

    Local manufacture , self sufficiency, and strategic industries were all the go .

    Alas all to nothing ….it’s back to apartments and coffee
    …and vibrancy .

  7. Reposting this comment.

    UE, FYI, on ABC radio this evening (yesterday), yet another Big Australia ponzi-embedded demographer full of bs on skills shortages; wages; environment; migration rates; with no idea of policies and means in other countries of incentivising natural birth rates (eg., Poland, Hungary, Russia etc) that do cost a quid, more than Costello’s pitiful $5k baby bonus, BUT that do cost much less in monetary and other terms than crazy immigration to the second driest continent on earth; supposed population and immigration debates “we’ve” (the elites) had in Australia; and on and on:

    Duration: 54min 5sec
    Broadcast: Tue 19 Oct 2021, 8:05pm
    Online https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/is-demography-destiny/13592676

    Hugo Memorial Lecture recorded 16 July 2021 Adelaide Festival of Ideas
    Speaker: Adam Graycar- Professor of Public Policy and Director Stretton Institute University of Adelaide

    Is demography destiny?

    How many houses, schools, pensions, and skilled workers will we need in the next decade?
    The answer to that requires a handle on the size and shape of our population.
    Demographers give governments a snapshot but the modelling contains guesswork about fertility rates , life expectancy and immigration policy.
    Could we do more to make Australia an attractive destination for skilled migrants?

  8. The only objective statement in that excerpt from Josh is wrong. Shameless.
    “The median age of the overseas-born population has gradually been decreasing from a decade ago however, at 30 June 2020, a small increase was recorded from the previous year, to 44 years of age. On the other hand, the median age of the Australian-born population has gradually been increasing over time to now be 34 years of age, similar to the previous year. The decrease in the median age of the overseas-born population prior to 30 June 2020 has had a positive effect on the age structure of Australia by slowing the ageing of the total population.”
    https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/migration-australia/latest-release

  9. I’d go to a rally opposing the mass immigration ponzi, my placard might be “save the environment”. Might be a bit tricky to organise though, need to make sure the racist element was excluded.

  10. Do you need a permit to drive through the CBD with a small box trailor with a billboard on it with big fecking letter$ saying #ididntorderachinese ?

  11. The Mayor of Fairfield, Sydney, was on Ch.9 this morning, he warns of aggressive reboot of immigration without the costs to support infrastructure, and stated that they just look at the “bottom line” of immigration, ignore the social well being and social costs. He’s pretty good, sees the crush loading first hand

  12. Mandate Australians out of their jobs by requiring vaccines, then replace them with overseas workers, and thus rob the people so described of both their bodily autonomy, jobs and nationhood.

    We are beset by the low quality of people at every level of our society,especially at the top, and by what we have come to accept.

  13. I don’t really understand or connect with the comments. Australia can choose its immigration rate.
    – More immigration means more taxable income and more expenditure on infrastructure (both social and economic).
    – It probably also means more demand for inner city housing, which helps some current Australians and not others.
    – Presumably one choice or the other affects the extent of general social capital, if there is such a thing, or changes local social capital.

    I don’t really understand why people are so irate about the issue, one way or another. Every choice brings winners and losers. By all means pitch your views to your representative member.

    (Last time I posted on this blog in support of Gladys I was personally attacked. ( I was called ‘insidious’ for the record). I would ask that any responders don’t follow suit, please. If you disagree, please argue against the issue and not against my existence. Thank you.)

    • How is more expenditure on infrastructure a good thing? It has to be paid for – which is mainly up to the existing population – and they don’t actually get anything out of it, except (at best) standing still in the face of population growth. It’s also an opportunity cost, eg that money could be put to work improving community services.

    • Even StevenMEMBER

      I agree Australia should be able to choose its immigration rate. However, all major parties are currently ignoring what Australian voters want. All opinion polls are conclusive that Australians want less immigration. Why are our elected leaders not representing the voters in this area?

      There are many downsides to excessive immigration:
      – Crush loading
      – Depletion of existing infrastructure and services (think fewer hospital beds)
      – Wage suppression (which accrues to the already wealthy)
      – Reduced housing affordability
      – Deterioration in education standards
      – Increase in labour law violations (underpayment is rampant)
      – Cultural impacts / less cohesive society (e.g. Denmark)

      I’m sure I’ve missed many. Is that enough for you?

    • Migrants = Higher House Prices

      Todays young are already priced out of the market. There lives have been stripped and local Australians practically have no future as it is.

      Essentially, the plan here is to run migration, drive house prices even higher, murder off the young and replace Australia with Migrants.

      Its practically an invasion done through politics and economics. If you wanted to destroy Australia, I could think of no better way.

      At some point, migrants will make a grab for Canberra and if it hasnt happened already, they’ll murder off every Australia they can in this country.

      Of course that wont happen… until it does happen. Then it’ll be too late.

      • I think your spot on.

        I’m currently swallowing the bitter pill that I will now never own a house in Brisbane my home city. I know Sydneysiders went through this realisation some time ago. But for us banana benders, this literally happened this year.

        The house price rise this year is closer to 40% 650-750k now 990k-1.3million. this is utterly insane

        My spirit is broken. Thanks gubbermint.

    • – More immigration means more taxable income and more expenditure on infrastructure (both social and economic).
      – It probably also means more demand for inner city housing, which helps some current Australians and not others.

      So does giving unemployed Australians jobs and increasing their incomes.

    • Even StevenMEMBER

      Now I see Steven Roberts why you may have raised the ire of MB forumites. You’ve swanned in with a “what’s the big deal about immigration? Present your arguments” and then disappear into the ether…

      Fool me once…

  14. National Security Event coming then. ASIO’s already made its voice heard.

    So the plan is to murder Australians because they dont make us money.

  15. 3 big lies.
    The 3 big lies now being peddled to Australians to justify a new flood of third world migrant guestworkers.

    #1. We have a skills shortage
    #2. Increased migrant intake is good
    #3. The migrants went back

    Facts as shown below.

    Lie number #1. ‘Australia has excess jobs and is now denuded of migrants leading to labor & skills shortages’

    The fact is that Australia has less jobs than a year ago & very high unemployment.

    The ABS says Unemployment is only 4.1%.
    We all know that’s a lie in measurement.

    Roy Morgan says that 8.7% of Australians are unemployed. More than double the ABS.
    October 03 2021 Finding No. 8812
    https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8812-roy-morgan-unemployment-september-2021-202110030834

    The latest Roy Morgan data shows 1.27 million Australians unemployed in September 2021 for an unemployment rate of 8.7%, with under-employment of 8.0% (1.16 million).
    Total unemployed or underemployed is 2.43 million or 16.6% non employed.

    More importantly the Australian Workforce jobs are only 14.57 million, below pre-lockdown level in June 2021.

    So the first big lie exposed.

    172,000 less jobs than before & we have nearly 9% unemployed!

    Given a residual of say half a million unemployed who just won’t or can’t work – that still leaves about 2 million Australians / PR unemployed or underemployed.
    And with less jobs & record unemployment.

    Yet we have 1.9 million non Australian third world migrants onshore on pretext visas. Overshoot from pre virus times.
    These long stay migrant TR / SCV who do the most damage to Australians in job & housing theft did not leave. See facts below.

    And now they are competing against Australians for less Australian jobs.

    Lie #2. Increased migrant intake is economically good.

    Putting aside the PR (much the same ) and dealing with just the 1.9 million TR / SCV migrant guestworkers onshore.

    They facts are that in the last decade of migrant intake – the TR / SCV have (in what otherwise would have been without this intake):
    •Lowered our wages average in comparative terms by 6.8% / costing Australians many tens of billions.
    •Lowered our GDP per Capita in comparative terms by 4.5%.
    •Lowered our productivity in comparative terms by some 5%. Most of the industries these migrant guestworkers participate in has seen dramatic reductions & loss of Australian productivity in world rankings (as is unskilled cash in hand migrant underclass or illegally working labor – rather than say capital investment, employee investment, automation / value add).

    So they are in fact a massive economic & social liability.
    Because – they are third world, unskilled, non assimilated, on low income, not invested in, create housing & use of infrastructure contention, and so are a high impact to our society. They are a particularly high impact to Australian employment & wages and our housing. This TR/SCV intake do not bring capital & as most are participants in the foreign run blackmarket cash economy, they make little if not zero / negative economic & tax contribution.

    Lie number #3
    ‘The migrants went back’.

    The temporary resident numbers overall – particularly the categories of those who are long stay Temporary visas has not declined.

    They didn’t go back. 1.9 million are still here.

    They used the virus, border closures, didn’t attend classes, increased their illegal work hours & then visa churn to stay in Australia
    But they are still here in Australia- living & working illegally. See the category detail.

    The only real decline in TR migrants was of about 600,000 in ‘long stay & repeat visitors’ then offset by huge surge in churn onto protection & other visas.

    Fact / detail. Link
    https://scanloninstitute.org.au/migrationdashboard#part-one
    Comparative numbers.

    Dec 2019 to September 2021.

    🔹SCV was 668,687 now 672,659 -3,972
    Much the same number but if masks the continuing trend of aged genuine NZ born returning back to NZ offset by a huge increase & majority of SCV grants to non NZ Asians & Indians to use NZ as an entry point into Australia.

    🔹Students was 480,543 now 377,785 -102,668
    This hides the real number being closer to 580,000 who are now on ‘other visa categories’ as well as partners & so on on secondary visas, or DFAT & other non DHA categories.
    As we all know they are not an export. Their money is earned here. Most enter in debt to a foreign agent procurer, only the first semester is paid upfront, usually borrowed & then all their ‘fees’ and living costs are from money earned here. Over 9 billion is sent back as foreign remittances or agent procurer debt repayments.
    They are not an export.
    They are a very high cost import, each foreign student or partner costing Australian some $52k each yearly in social & economic costs (unemployed Australians, housing, congestion, higher education costs for Australians as the education sector prostitutes itself as a migrant guestworker visa alibi)
    Human capital value?
    Their progression into a higher income and a professional vocation in their home country or Australia if granted a PR?

    3.9% (Migrant Pathways A Decade On report 2015 – leading to the Productivity Commission later recommending the removal of access to PR)
    That’s right – 96% of all foreign students in Australia fail to ever achieve a professional higher income vocation a decade later.

    Zero / negative human capital value.

    They remain unskilled with their useless falsified diplomas & certificates, often with no international recognition, non assimilated, entrenched in the foreign criminal run migrant black economy.

    🔹Skilled was 119,160, now 104,333 -14,827
    Always marginal & a marginal reduction. In fact there are only 76,000 primary skilled and even that’s massively overstated.
    Most of the skilled are usually on a cash back deal by the employer with falsified skills by the migrant (aka Gladys/Darryl)

    We don’t have a skilled intake.
    Nearly 95% of the 1.9 million non Australian migrant TR or SCV are on an unskilled visa category.

    🔹Visitors was 635,109, now is 28,741 -606,368
    Here is the biggest reduction, the Chinese, south East Asians & Indians coming in on long stay or repeat stay visitor visas to live & work illegally. Or in ‘Medicare tourism’ (all those bus loads of elderly Chinese & Indians) to avail themselves of Australian Medicare & then PBS drugs to fund their trip using a borrowed or frauded Medicare identity.

    🔹Bridging was 119,655, now 359,981 so +240,326. Up nearly quarter of a million.
    Exploding as their visas expire or they churn onto this racket to extend their stay.

    🔹’Other’ 300,143 210,796 -89,347
    Still a huge number 210,000 made up of a splendid array of niche visa categories – all corrupted.

    And in the 2020 total we can add Temp visa now granted PR to join the conga line for welfare (167,432 grants so +167,432)
    I haven’t added overstayers (+70,000) or DFAT & scholarship/ trade visa bribes & gifting but that’s another (+35,000) or +105,000 in addition.

    Totals (offical DHA visa categories- doesn’t include DFAT or overstayers)
    Dec 2019 2,203,543
    Oct 2021 1,921,727
    Actual reduction onshore -281,816

    And almost of that in the 600,000 plus reduction of illegal working ‘long & repeat stay visitor’ category.
    Other visa categories stayed much the same or went up.

    Cross check of Scanlon source data..
    Temporary visa holders ABS/DHA table
    Use the Oct 2021 data link.

  16. What gets me is that the Immigration minister says there is a cap on migration, when that is completely false. There is only a cap on Permanent migration, not temporary migration. People then believe that we only bring in 160,000 migrants per year in total, when it’s actually around 250,000.

  17. I hope these immigrants are carbon neutral.

    They fight wars for fossil fuels in middle east then say they will santion countries that dont get off fossil fuels, while practising mass imigration.

    Something is not right.