From Roy Morgan Research:
In September 2021 Australians expected inflation of 4.5% annually over the next two years, up 0.2% points and the highest Inflation Expectations for three years since October 2018. Inflation Expectations are now a large 1.2% points higher than a year ago in September 2020 (3.3%).
Inflation Expectations are still 0.2% points below their long-term average of 4.7% but are now a full 1% point higher than the record low 2020 monthly average of 3.5%.
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Inflation Expectations are up the most for Australians aged under 60
A look at Inflation Expectations by Generations shows there is now agreement between people of different ages about how much prices are set to rise. However, the change from a year ago is starkly different for people over 60 (Pre-Boomers and Baby Boomers) and those under 60 (Gen X, Millennials and Gen Z).
Inflation Expectations have increased across the board but have increased most rapidly for Australians aged under 60 – led by Millennials – up 1.6% points from a year ago to 4.5% in September.
Generation X, now aged from 45-60, have the highest Inflation Expectations at 4.6% in September, an increase of 1.3% points from a year ago. The Inflation Expectations of Generation Z have also increased significantly, up 1.2% points to 4.5% – matching the increase of Australians overall.
Although Inflation Expectations for Baby Boomers are in line with the national average at 4.5% this is an increase of only 0.7% points from a year ago while older Australians, aged 75+, the Pre-Boomers, now have the lowest Inflation Expectations at 4.2%, up only 0.6% points from a year ago.
Inflation Expectations are again highest in Tasmania and lowest in South Australia
On a State-based level Inflation Expectations are highest and well above the national average in Tasmania at 5.1%. Inflation Expectations are above the national average in New South Wales at 4.7% as the State prepares to re-open.
Inflation Expectations are in line with the national average in both Queensland and Western Australia at 4.5% and slightly below the national average in locked down Victoria at 4.4%.
The outlier this month is again South Australia which has the lowest Inflation Expectations of only 4.0%, the fourth straight month the measure has been lower in South Australia than anywhere else.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for September was at 101.6, an increase of 9.8pts (+10.7%) from September 2020 a year ago. The latest Consumer Confidence figure for the first week of October has continued to improve and is now at 104.6 as re-opening plans for Greater Sydney have been brought forward under new Premier Dominic Perrottet.
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