HomeBuilder drives structural housing oversupply

Last week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released dwelling construction data for the June quarter, which showed that dwelling commencements hit the highest level on record over the quarter:

The below charts plot annual dwelling approvals, commencements and completions against population growth nationally and across the five major states.

National:

Nationally, population growth collapsed to only 35,700 in the year to March 2021, versus dwelling commencements of 212,000 at the June quarter of 2021 and dwelling approvals of 229,000 as at August 2021:

New South Wales:

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.