COVID cases fall as Melburnians rejoice

Victoria has recorded another 1750 locally acquired COVID cases over the past 24 hours alongside nine deaths, after Melbourne reopened yesterday:

By comparison, NSW has recorded 332 locally acquired cases and two deaths:

The next chart plots the daily cases across the two states:

Next are active cases:

Enjoy your weekend of freedom, Melburnians.

Unconventional Economist
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Comments

  1. The Traveling Wilbur ๐Ÿ™‰๐Ÿ™ˆ๐Ÿ™Š

    Try to drink responsibly this weekend folks. Do try.

    Enjoy!

  2. kiwikarynMEMBER

    Hopefully this is the peak, and cases trend down from here like NSW. Good luck. Here in NZ half the country is locked up until 90% vax rate is reached, and even then we will have to have vaccine passports to go anywhere or do anything.

    • We had a tier 1 exposure in my daughter’s class so have just got out of 14 days iso. Consequently I missed my 2nd jab appointment. Today to celebrate being allowed out of the house, drove to Daylesford for a pub lunch (we live regional Vic). Couldn’t get in anywhere as they all now require double jab certificates. Furious!

  3. BOHICA. Boosters are on the way.

    https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-phase-3-trial-data-showing
    All trial participants previously completed the primary two-dose series of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, and then were randomized 1:1 to receive either a 30-ยตg booster dose (the same dosage strength as those in the primary series) or placebo. The median time between second dose and administration of the booster dose or placebo was approximately 11 months. Symptomatic COVID-19 occurrence was measured from at least 7 days after booster or placebo, with a median follow-up of 2.5 months. During the study period, there were 5 cases of COVID-19 in the booster group, and 109 cases in the non-boosted group. The observed relative vaccine efficacy of 95.6% (95% CI: 89.3, 98.6) reflects the reduction in disease occurrence in the boosted group versus the non-boosted group in those without evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. Median age of participants was 53 years, with 55.5% of participants between 16 and 55 years, and 23.3% of participants 65 years and older. Multiple subgroup analyses showed efficacy was consistent irrespective of age, sex, race, ethnicity, or comorbid conditions.

    OK, some numbers to put this into perspective. Drug companies always love quoting relative risk reduction as this metric makes their product look good. People think ‘95% reduced risk, that’s great.” Absolute risk is far less impressive, but more important.
    Boost = 5/5000 = 0.1% absolute risk of symptomatic infection over next 10 weeks
    No boost = 109/5000 = 2.18% absolute risk of symptomatic infection over next 10 weeks
    ARR (absolute risk reduction) ~ 2%
    NNT (no needed to treat) = 1/ARR =50. This is the number of people you need to vaccinate to prevent 1 symptomatic infection. Again, all over a 10 week period. When there was a lot of delta circulating in USA.
    NNT will presumably decrease as you go out to 6 months rather than 10 weeks
    Conversely, NNT would increase whenever background numbers of Covid fall.

    And it’s a drug company trial. Things are never quite so good in the real world.
    Andt that figure of 95% efficacy is exactly what Pfizer announced 12 months ago when the vaccine was released.
    But it does suggest the original mRNA recipe holds up well against delta in the short term.

    Note that the goalposts have shifted and the endpoint is now whether you get sick โ€“ not whether you become infected / colonised with the virus.
    I think we have pivoted to a concept where the vax turns C19 into just another mild resp infection that spreads fairly easily. A nuisance. But not highly damaging to the individual or society.

    The science to date is balanced such that either decision on boosters is reasonable and hence opinion is equally divided. My colleagues are split on this. Rochelle Walensky (CDC Director) recently overruled her own scientific advisors and came down on the side of boosters.

    On September 22, 2021, a booster dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine was authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA for individuals 65 years of age and older, individuals 18 through 64 years of age at high risk of severe COVID-19, and individuals 18 through 64 years of age with frequent institutional or occupational exposure to SARS-CoV-2. On October 20, 2021, a booster dose of the vaccine also was authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA in eligible individuals who have completed a primary vaccination with a different authorized COVID-19 vaccine. In addition, a booster dose of the vaccine is authorized in the European Union and other countries, with recommendations for populations varying based on local health authority guidance.

    So boosters are coming. Australia didn’t buy those 125 million shots for nothing. At some point, your green vaccine pass will turn red. I’m not convinced this approach is right. But I’m not convinced its wrong either.

    • Great comment. Learned a lot. Thanks.
      My view is that we should end the vaccine segregation at 90%. Dan Andrews in Victoria has signalled that the unvaccinated won’t get their freedoms until mid next year. I believe this is wrong on many levels.
      I’m pro vaccination but also pro choice.

      • My view is that we should end the vaccine apartheid at 90%.

        Could you try to avoid this sort of absurd language ? Seriously mate, it just makes you look like anti-vax wacko, and then credibility -> 0.

        • Yep. A South African friend of mine sees this โ€œapartiedโ€ language as highly offensive. I just see it an another bullsh1t propaganda balloon.

          • A South African friend of mine sees the situation very differently to your friend. My friend sees this behaviour in Australia as exactly like the apartheid that he saw on the way out when he was a young man.

            Although my friend only saw the tail end of apartheid and was in no way supportive or responsible for it, in Australia he has always been thought of as a bit of a racist because of where he was born – through no fault of his own.

            My friend is appalled by the modern Australian medical apartheid and is not afraid to call it out. He should know.

          • A South African friend of mine sees the situation very differently to your friend. My friend sees this behaviour in Australia as exactly like the apartheid that he saw on the way out when he was a young man.

            Indeed.

            On the one hand, we have a white supremacist system designed to arbitrarily segregate society and legally discriminate against people based on their race, interfering in every aspect of their lives, from where they could live (forcibly relocated if required), to who they could have relationships with.

            On the other, we have some organisations choosing not to employ individuals who have chosen not to get a COVID vaccination for purposes of health and risk management.

            The similarities are uncanny.

          • Reus's large MEMBER

            If they are a true south african then they are tougher than that and would not be affected by a word on a blog, they need to harden the fcuk up

        • reusachtigeMEMBER

          No. That’s exactly what it is! You’re just an authoritarian loving carnt! The enemy that must be harshly expired in the future war for freedom!

        • That’s your opinion Dr Smithy.
          How else do you describe locking the unvaccinated out of almost everything? How about the term segregation? Would that satisfy you?
          90% seems like a fair vaccination level to get rid of the restrictions and unite the population. The NSW Government seems to agree and is doing just that.

          • reusachtigeMEMBER

            They hate people who won’t comply with the authoritarian order. They don’t even want them at the back of the bus! Pure evil.

          • How else do you describe locking the unvaccinated out of almost everything? How about the term segregation? Would that satisfy you?

            Well at least it’s not directly equating anti-vax sentiment with decades of structural race-driven discrimination.

            The whole point of using this sort of language is the same as people pulling out “RACISM!” every time you talk about population growth.

            There’s actually some reasonably complex underlying legal and ethical issues here, trying to reduce them down to some version of ‘don’t discriminate me bro’ does nothing useful.

          • See my comment about about not being allowed entry i to any cafe/pub in a regional town today. A couple of places told me of a cafe here I could go. If this this isn’t segregation, not sure what it. Would be interesting to see how this stands up against Victoria’s Human Rights laws.

          • Would be interesting to see how this stands up against Victoriaโ€™s Human Rights laws.

            Well, “haven’t had my second shot yet” isn’t a protected characteristic, so probably pretty well, I’d guess.

          • The Traveling Wilbur ๐Ÿ™‰๐Ÿ™ˆ๐Ÿ™Š

            Well, that depends. On who was aiming at what with the first one.

          • Sure mate.

            People were forcibly evicted en masse, stripped of citizenships, told who they could and couldn’t marry, and systemically, explicitly discriminated against by the state because of their race, and this is being compared to some organisations requiring some employees to get a COVID vaccination, but *I’m* the one “over-reacting” by highlighting how fvcking stupid and offensive the comparison is.

          • LOL Smithy, what do you know about apartheid past the Lethal Weapon 2 movie experience?

            Apartheid was not something that was taken by a decree few years before filming of the Lethal Weapon 2 – all of a sudden after some “scientists” decided which part of racial science to observe (better: which part of the science to disregard) . It took decades to institutionalise and formalise into something that became official mandate and order as observed in later years.
            Baasskap, Hendrik Verwoerd Strijdom… replace their terms of white supremacy with “vaxxed supremacy” and the delineation is not only blurred but it disappears
            Hint: first step was to declare that some groups should be separated based on “science”.
            Hint 2: learn what the actual word means. Replace the word “racial” by “medical status” and there is no difference from views of Dan “the Causesku” Andrews.

        • Well put arguments, thanks for calling out the apartheid b*llsh1t

          You forgot to mention that those like Steve Biko and Mandela and many others were jailed and tortured for years for opposing…

      • MountainGuinMEMBER

        Agreed, keeping non-vaxed folks locked down until mid next year would be ridiculous – it almost feels like a sort of revenge/blame decision.

        By 2022, those who had the earliest vaccines will probably have relatively low levels of protections, but they get to keep their freedoms. Social butterflys who want to go from crowded place to crowded place place themselves and others at risk, but they get to keep their freedoms. Those who make choices to have bad health outcomes (smokers, obese) place themselves and the health system at risk but keep their freedoms.
        I don’t think the view to keep non-vaxed folk locked down is consistent with allowing other activities that are ‘risky’ nor have we penalised other people who choose to take risks. Frankly, if we want to target risks, I suggest politicians and the rich tend to travel more that average Aussies and tend to be able to work from home, so how about we lock them down to mitigate their risks….. ๐Ÿ™‚

    • Yet there is no long term safety study on the cumulative effects of multiple injections. We know the vaccines cause blood clots, so at some point all those blood clots are going to start piling up in your arteries and lungs, and eventually you are going to get a heart attack or stroke. Each vaccine probably brings you one step closer to death. Let them prove otherwise.

      • The spike protein causes damage to the lining of blood vessels which can cause blood clots, yes. It also causes damage to other tissues – the heart in particular.

        This is seen with Covid infection, when the virus invades your cells, hijacks the cellular systems such that your cells exponentially replicate the entire viral mRNA and then go on to reproduce the entire coronavirus (including the spike protein). Clotting in patients with Covid infection was an issue we saw back in March 2020 (well before the vaccines).
        This is also seen with the vaccine when the mRNA (coding the spike only) invades your cells and they make just the spike protein.

        Overall, the mRNA vaccines seem to cause less clotting than the AZ vaccine, and I doubt the AZ will be used next year.

        The vaccines will likely cause less clotting that the infection as the amount of mRNA is finite and it breaks down quickly. With a natural infection, the virus reproduces exponentially.

        There are always unknown unknowns with something new. The vaccines do pose some side effects and some risks.
        If you are confident you will not get the virus, then it makes sense not to get vaccinated.
        If you believe you will get infected sooner or later, then the vaccine makes sense if you are middle aged or older.
        I personally don’t feel we should be vaccinating kids / adolescents. Their risk is too low than any absolute risk reduction is minimal to non-existent. But that’s my personal view.

        • An initial vaccine makes sense, to lower the level of disease when you get it. But boosters dont. You don’t get infected with covid 2-3 times a year, so the cumulative damage done by vaccines will be greater than going years without getting covid or getting it once and recovering from a mild infection, and then not catching it again (as natural immunity is more protective).

          • MountainGuinMEMBER

            Yep – and we need to broaden the focus from solely vaccines and treatments. How about a focus on good old ‘normal’ health that seems to assist against covid but also many other conditions.
            In Australia in the 80’s we had the classic ‘life be in it’ campaign based around turning the telly off and walking, gardening, doing sport etc etc. Doing something similar would be great.

          • 100%. This disease is very bad news if you are seriously overweight.
            But there is not much money to be made from this.
            And people want solutions which are quick and easy for them (because they are developed by someone else) and which are free (paid by government). They don’t really want something which is difficult and which they have to do themselves.

          • The Traveling Wilbur ๐Ÿ™‰๐Ÿ™ˆ๐Ÿ™Š

            Steve, in his last comment, is being too nice – if you can figure out when you are going to catch it, and get double-vaxxed three weeks to 4 months in advance of that, then more power to you. Then you can keep bagging the only thing that is going to save the lives of some very vulnerable people.

            Otherwise, take your boosters. Or die (potentially). Quietly.

            Those are the only available options for most people.

        • How many pieces of RNA are in each jab?
          Does every piece of RNA get into a cell? (Are a % unsuccessful)
          Once RNA is in a human cell, how many spike proteins does it create? Is it only one, or does it keep creating them for a given time, or forever?

    • So, nothing has been approved, only authorized for emergency use. Nevertheless, we are going to get booster after booster after booster…
      And give some of those to the 5-11 yo kids.
      A wise decision by Gold Standard™ Let it Rip® the Dude Who Saved Australia© Bin Chicken, indeed.

  4. With the most recent Pfizer study there seems to be a bit of numberwang going on.

    https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/04/peter-doshi-pfizer-and-modernas-95-effective-vaccines-we-need-more-details-and-the-raw-data/

    All attention has focused on the dramatic efficacy results: Pfizer reported 170 PCR confirmed covid-19 cases, split 8 to 162 between vaccine and placebo groups. But these numbers were dwarfed by a category of disease called โ€œsuspected covid-19โ€โ€”those with symptomatic covid-19 that were not PCR confirmed. According to FDAโ€™s report on Pfizerโ€™s vaccine, there were โ€œ3410 total cases of suspected, but unconfirmed covid-19 in the overall study population, 1594 occurred in the vaccine group vs. 1816 in the placebo group.โ€

    With 20 times more suspected than confirmed cases, this category of disease cannot be ignored simply because there was no positive PCR test result. Indeed this makes it all the more urgent to understand. A rough estimate of vaccine efficacy against developing covid-19 symptoms, with or without a positive PCR test result, would be a relative risk reduction of 19% (see footnote)โ€”far below the 50% effectiveness threshold for authorization set by regulators.

    Maybe this blog could look into the pfizer study and be able to see if everything is kosher or if there are indeed large gaps, similar to auctionr results excluding withdrawn properties from the clearance rate. It shouldn’t be that hard.

    • Pfizer claim that there Covid-19 mRNA injection has a vaccine effectiveness of 95%. They were able to claim this because of the following โ€“

      During the ongoing clinical trial, 43,661 subjects were split evenly between the placebo and vaccine groups (about 21,830 subjects per group).

      In the placebo group โ€” the group that didnโ€™t have the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine โ€” 162 became infected with the coronavirus and showed symptoms.

      Whilst in the vaccine group โ€” the group that got the real vaccine โ€” that number was only 8.

      Therefore the percentage of placebo group who became infected equated to 0.74% (162 / 21830 x 100 = 0.74).

      Whilst 0.04% of the vaccinate group became infected (8 / 21830 x 100 = 0.04)

      In order to calculate the efficacy of their Covid-19 mRNA injection, Pfizer then performed the following calculation โ€“

      They first subtracted the percentage of infections in the vaccinated group from the percentage of infections in the placebo group.

      0.74% โ€“ 0.04% = 0.7%

      Then they divided that total by the percentage of infections in the placebo group, which equated to 95%.

      0.7 / 0.74 = 95%.

      Therefore, Pfizer were able to claim that their Covid-19 mRNA injection is 95% effective.

      • Yes, and it IS statistically significant, i.e., there is about ZERO probability (p-value) that the difference can happen by chance.

      • Yes. This relative risk reduction is a godsend to the pharmacy industry when the absolute risks are small. The effect is real. But putting it in relative terms makes it look far larger.

        In that original data, the absolute risk reduction was only 0.7% 0.74-0.04).

        In the booster study, the ARR was ~ 2.1% (2.18-0.1). The higher (but still small) ARR in the booster study may reflect the greater risk that delta poses compared to the earlier strains.

        • The Traveling Wilbur ๐Ÿ™‰๐Ÿ™ˆ๐Ÿ™Š

          “small”.

          There it is. “small”.
          It’s a mutating virus more deadly than the flu that no isolating vaccine will ever be developed for and where having had it and survived doesn’t seem to impart any natural immunity against future infection.

          You are a very smart person with a limited horizon view. Lift it, and then think about how we need to act to make sure as many as possible get there.

          • The numbers speak for themselves.
            A 2% risk of infection (in this study) multiplied by an (estimated) population average IFR of 0.15% produces a number which is small. But not zero.

            When you multiply a very small number by millions however, it is not so small anymore.

        • What about morbidity Steve? You understand the science, however only looking at fatalities is your blind spot. The chronic covid complications and their effects will be a huge burden for years ahead in countries that have ‘let it rip’, especially in 2020 pre-vaccines.

          • Not quite sure what you are referring to. Are you saying I am dismissing the morbidity of the disease? Or the vax?

            The scientific data on boosters is mixed and I think you can argue this either way at the moment. If you believe in the adage that โ€œactions speak louder than wordsโ€, then I am getting a booster tomorrow.

            The mortality data is a mess. Even when measuring a definite end point like death. Two CA counties recently reduced their 2029 C19!deaths by 25%. Thatโ€™s how FU it is.
            The morbidity data is even worse (if that is possible) due to its subjective nature. Which makes it hard to have any meaningful discussion about this.

    • what do you mean?
      Nominally – perhaps there is no change
      Have you seen the participation numbers between vaccinated and not? How did it change?

  5. There is something of a disconnect between the current scientific data about boosters, and the political enthusiasm to use them at this stage

    Some people see the hand of the WEF, great reset, the trend towards authoritarianism, reduced liberty & autonomy etc.I have never bought into this, but understand some are fairly convinced.

    I am more curious about the various other inputs the government is receiving.

    Meanwhile the manufacturers have been testing their ability to quickly develop and deploy an updated vaccine if (or when) a variant appears which evades the vaccine. They have pledged they can do it in 100 days – which would still be a long time if something really nasty emerged.
    The high profile announcement from the White House seemed a bit odd to announce ongoing vaccine research, but there have been lots of oddities these past 20 months.
    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02854-3

    Delta plus is increasing in the UK as they head towards winter. Currently 10% of UK cases and increasing. Has just been deemed a “variant under investigation”. Carries 2 new spike mutations. May be 10% more infectious than delta, but too early to know.

    • Reus's large MEMBER

      Something to blame the new outbreak on, nothing to do with the vaccines being poo, those infection numbers per 100k for vaccinated vs un-vaccinated are looking pretty bad, will be interesting to see what the deaths look like in 30/60 days. I also don’t buy your theory that the vaxed are more likely to be tested, given the air of superiority given off by the vaxed I would say quite the opposite. They believe the vaccine makes them invincible so I would actually say that the unvaccinated are the ones getting tested, probably lots of them have to have regular tests to participate in society

      https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027511/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-42.pdf

      • Throughout much of 2021, the UK government has funded 2 free tests per person per week. Lots of people have been doing these, and employers have been keen to get their employees tested.
        Hence the UK is finding a lots of asymptomatic cases in the worried well.
        Been good for the company making the tests, but maybe not good for anyone else
        https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-56632084

        At the time, they were advised against this by many senior clinicians, but they went ahead regardless.
        https://www.bmj.com/company/newsroom/uk-government-must-urgently-rethink-lateral-flow-test-roll-out-warn-experts/

        The government has now decided to stop funding this program at the end of the coming winter, and will move to a user-pay system. That will reduce the numbers!
        https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-readying-payment-systems-charge-rapid-covid-19-testing-sources-2021-10-06/


        • The government has now decided to stop funding this program at the end of the coming winter, and will move to a user-pay system. That will reduce the numbers!

          Narrative in the UK is already moving to deaths and hospitalisations. Can you reduce those with less testing?

          “Overnight, the [UK] recorded its worst daily death total from the virus since the beginning of March โ€“ with a further 223 people succumbing to the disease in the past 24 hours…
          The daily death toll has often exceeded 100 since the summer, adding to an overall toll of more than 138,000, second only to Russia in Europe.
          โ€œSadly, at the moment the UK has a higher level of Covid-19 than most other comparable countries, this is seen not just in positive tests but in hospital admissions and deaths,โ€ said Jim Naismith, professor of structural biology at the University of Oxford.
          Across the Channel, France is recording some 4000 cases a day and Germany 10,000. Deaths are running at about 30 and 60 daily respectively.”

          https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/britain-forced-to-consider-plan-b-as-covid-cases-deaths-and-hospitalisations-sharply-rise/news-story/7a1af8585b0ca0d29f64b5216f7c6685

        • There is a lot in that.

          To a certain extent, they have to make it up as they go along. There is no playbook for this. What would you have them do? – not change position when the situation changes?

          You are probably right about waning immunity, although we don’t really know that for sure. Antibody levels do fall over time, but that is expected and only a small part of the story. Memory B and T cell function is more important, but harder to ember.
          The balance of pinion is swinging towards vaccination.
          I suspect Northern hemisphere governments are a bit nervous going into winter. They don’t want a 3rd year of lockdowns. But they know a lot of their population was vaccinated in early 2020 – a bit earlier than the vax program took off in Australia. And I guess this is the reason for the boosters. They may have simply have decided that the risk of boosters is likely less than the risks of another winter outbreak.
          My 2nd shot was in early March. I have seen a lot of Covid in the last 2-3 months. Yes I wore PPE and was reasonably careful, but I am sure there were countless PPE breaches. No occupational cases that I know of. That makes me think immunity may be a bit better than the antibody data suggests.
          But I am getting a booster tomorrow. So are many of my colleagues. Maybe I don’t need it.

          C’est la vie!

      • Been thinking about this, and I actually have a theory about why the unvaccinated are not catching covid. There’s a good chance most of them are the group that has already caught and recovered from Covid, who think there is now no point in being vaccinated. Thus armed with natural immunity that is 13x superior to vaccine immunity they are not getting Delta.

    • C'est de la folieMEMBER

      There is something of a disconnect between the current scientific data about boosters, and the political enthusiasm to use them at this stage

      That disconnect is a reticence to acknowledge the policymakers are making things up as they go, and may have an awful lot of risks they arent going anywhere near talking about.

      Right at this moment anyone who had their second vaccine shot earlier than the last week of April is ‘vaccinated’ to a diminishing degree, and that ‘window’ marches forward every week. By the time Christmas comes around it will be anyone who received their second vaccination shot earlier than the last week of June. All of a sudden we are talking about lots of people. And all those Australians who have joined the vaccination plan – and I am one of them – in the great surge to 80% vaccination rates we have at the moment, will need to be told by Anzac day 2022 that they have a declining vaccination effectiveness.

      Now the ‘political enthusiasm’ you refer to is most obvious to people this week as a requirement for them to not just be vaccinated, but to be able to demonstrate proof of that with a vaccination passport upon request – at work, if they want to eat out, if they want to socialise or if they want to play sport (for starters). That is perfectly OK for most people – they have been vaccinated, and it isnt a great hassle to get the ‘vaccination certificate’ on their mobile. Right here and right now there isnt a problem, Australia is opening up and according to the press coverage everything is pumping. For the most part people get the idea about QR codes going into and out of places, they wear masks, they use sanitizers, and Australians have learned that it is no longer cool to go anywhere coughing, sneezing or with runny noses. All is good.

      But every day between now and Anzac day next year the vaccine effectiveness of that vaccination reflected in the vaccination certificates they show is diminishing. Now sure, we all know that we will need a booster, and no doubt we will all be duly advised where and when to head on down and get one. But a few issues start to crop up about there. They start with ‘which booster?’. If you had two shots of AstraZeneca (as I have) then your current first place to look is either Pfizer or Moderna. If you had two Pfizer first up then you are looking at probably Moderna – seeing as they are looking at phasing AZ out according to government pronouncements.

      Now even if everything goes perfectly there are already plenty of people who have either experienced or know of others who have experienced some form of side effect from the vaccination they had. So it wouldnt be completely unreasonable to anticipate there will be at least some reticence to undergo the same thing again. Then there will be the following six months – lets call it today next year. So in my case I go two AZs this year, a Pfizer booster in April and that gets me through to next October. Then what? So I go a Moderna then and whatever is being developed now, just in time to take over when Moderna expires? And everyone will keep lining up for the boosters as directed, right?………at what point does the risk rise that people will say โ€˜enough is enoughโ€™?

      Now at that point lets go back to those vaccine certificates.

      At what point do they tell people who currently have a vaccine certificate, that lets them go out to the local, that they have to have the booster or that their current vaccination is losing effectiveness? Is it a simple hard and fast set date – get a booster by date X or you drop off the vaccinated register – or is there wiggle room? (you have to get a booster within a month of X date โ€“ where one month represents Y% deterioration of vaccine effectiveness from Date X). Now if it is the latter then what happens with the decreasing effectiveness of the vaccine over that period? If its the former how many venues or shops are going to be comfortable telling people who rocked up one day and were fine to come in, that they arent fine to come in when they rock up a day later? Could or would they look the other way?

      It isnt as though any of the vaccines we currently have or the boosters we are likely to have will mean we could say of someone Mr Smithers was perfectly safe on this day, and a risk to others at another date, because even with the vaccines and the boosters we have Mr Smithers is a risk to others even if he is freshly vaccinated and has no symptoms. Now while all that is being churned though we presumably will start to get data on the side effects of current vaccines and new variations of Covid.

      Now at that point the political enthusiasm become enthusiasm for quite a lot of bureaucratic apparatus to ensure compliance, and enthusiasm for locking the country into regular boosters. All bets are off if there is a rushed or dodgy (in any way) booster rolled off the production line

      Now the one thing the learn to live with it crowd have been unanimous about is that there is โ€˜no turning backโ€™ to a Covid free existence. That is about the only certainty anyone has.

      But that Covid free existence we had โ€“ although not likely to be an issue over the Southern Summer (though we will get a sighter of the road ahead as the US and UK/Europe start through another winter with heavily vaccinated populations, and if there is any sign of further lockdowns in the face of vaccination not having the desired effect then we can assume that would require some extra sales pitch to embark on that path here) โ€“ is going to look a touch like a long lost โ€˜golden eraโ€™ if everything doesnโ€™t go perfectly before Anzac day next year.

      At that point presumably the seasonality factor raises the risk of Covid once again, and we start to see increased numbers of people who have done as they were told and been vaccinated, starting to come down with Covid. The comparison then will possibly be lots of people requiring boosters which they arenโ€™t all that sure about, still with lots of Covid getting about and the IC units banking up (and sundry other effects of Covid management)

      At that point we presumably will have a thoroughly discredited NSW Premier who oversaw the importation and policy induced spread of Covid in Australia long departed. The Prime Minister for NSW who openly supported her through that is also punting odds to be gone. One assumes a large number of executive bureaucrats โ€“ in this day and age solely executive because of the touch of their tongues upon the political buttocks above โ€“ will be dispensable too.

      But by then Australian Covid management policy โ€“ like the unspoken housing policy, like the unspoken monetary policy, like the unspoken immigration policy, and like the unspoken tertiary education policy, unknowable and undiscussable by the Australian people, like any number of sports rorts, funding rorts, blind trust usage by Ministers, the decisions to commit Australian troops, the purchases of submarines etc etc etc โ€“ will be bedded in, with its praises ululated by Australian mainstream media.

      That disconnect you refer to is the suspicion of some Australians that their elites like to have them wearing hair shirts for no real reason, when they could have ‘protected’ people from the virus by simply working on quarantine and lockdown with a touch more conviction. That maybe 45 billion AUD was needlessly shelled out to corporate Australia when Joe average can presumably expect to listen to exhortations about ‘belt tightening’ real soon may just work that suspicion into something nice and volatile.

  6. Still enjoying free, clear and uninterrupted mobile phone reception since the second nanobot injection…and the earth is as flat as one of Shane Bourne’s jokes….

  7. Protection gained from a severe infection lasts 9 months, from a mild infection half that and from an asymptomatic infection just 8 weeks. That is why the curves in the UK are looking like they are because the teenagers at school ( with no precautions ) are recirculating the infection at school every 8 weeks until their luck runs out and they get something worse that an asymptomatic infection.

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00407-0/fulltext

    Where the cognitive damage comes from…..

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41593-021-00926-1

  8. https://www.rollcall.com/2021/10/22/nih-grantee-in-wuhan-faces-questions-deadline-for-more-information-on-research/
    https://twitter.com/billcarson2162/status/1451013449455132675?s=21

    NIH finally admits itโ€™s funding to EcoHealth Alliance was used for gain of function research. Specifically research on the spike protein to make coronaviruses more able to infect humans.

    https://twitter.com/r_h_ebright/status/1450947395508858880?s=21
    https://twitter.com/r_h_ebright/status/1450947395508858880?s=21

    This contradicts previous denials from Fauci, who advised NIH $ didnโ€™t fund such research.
    Fauci of course is the subject of an upcoming Disney fairy โ€ฆ. er documentary).

    Granted, the virus they reported they were researching is a different bat coronavirus to SARS-CoV-2. Which I guess leaves two possibilities
    1. The lessons learned from the virus NIH knew about were then applied in WIV lab to another virus to create SARS-CoV-2
    OR
    2. A bat in a cave in China stole the idea from the lab, created SARS-CoV-2, and then transported SARS-CoV-2 to the Wuhan market. Despite 18 months of searching, neither the bat nor the cave have turned up.

  9. Somehow, the gov has convinced people the vax will protect them from the virus, but won’t protect them from the unvaxed.
    Unbelievable.

      • The Traveling Wilbur ๐Ÿ™‰๐Ÿ™ˆ๐Ÿ™Š

        You might be missing out on this one Reus – maybe it’s different in the circles you’re exposed [heh] to, but these days down the Vax centres it’s all the good looking younger people getting pricked – and have you seen what passes by when you watch some of those ‘protest’ marches on Sky? Certainly not jangling any Lexus keys in those pockets. Or hand-sanitiser. Or shoes.

        You might be behind the wrong horse on this one.

  10. So had a booster shot this am.
    Within 30 minutes, my Medicare Covid digital certificate had upgraded the โ€œvalid fromโ€ date from March to today.
    30 minutes. On a Sunday.

    Seems considerable effort has been invested making this process highly autonomous.