COVID cases fall again

Victoria has recorded another 1749 new locally acquired COVID cases and 11 deaths:

By comparison, NSW has recorded only 273 locally acquired COVID cases and four deaths:

The next chart plots the daily cases across both states, which are both on the decline:

Active cases also look like they are peaking in Victoria, and have fallen sharply in NSW:

In other news, retailers have slammed the Victorian Government for not allowing retail to open to inside trade alongside hospitality on Friday. Australian Retailers Association CEO Paul Zahra warns that most general retailers will remain closed until the 80% vaccination target is reached in November.

Meanwhile, NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard says the state government hopes that all categories of elective surgery can resume in the week beginning 25 October. Sources have indicated that this will most likely initially be at around 75% of normal capacity. Elective surgery at both public and private hospitals has been suspended in response to the Delta variant, although some day surgery procedures resumed in early October.

Unconventional Economist
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  1. CaptainFooBarMEMBER

    I wonder if the numbers in NSW are dropping because people can’t be bothered to be tested as they don’t want to be locked down in their home. Obviously due to them not being really sick thanks to the vaccine.

  2. I would re-subscribe if you guys start posting the deaths based on vaccination status of all deaths. Not like the general headlines of other media outlets, like yesterday, where the headline reads as 30 year old dead from Covid but in the article it says she had underlying health issues.

      • Well the about us page says that: ‘Macrobusines posts are driven by the Australian National Interest. They are fact-checked, data-driven analysis and opinion. If we get it wrong, we own up to it’.

        Maybe its not in the Aussie interest to disclose the facts, if the data can’t be sourced it should be at least disclosed in the article.

          • I was a little more snarky in my original post but removed it.

            My point was perhaps Labrynth could take the time to compile the relevant data sets across state Births, Deaths, Marriages, AIHW or state hospital data and maybe primary care (for comorbidity data) and then license this for use by MSM, Covidlive, University research departments, the Feds, etc.

            Bit hard to do data driven analysis without the data.


        • I cannot do it anymore
          In an open letter, an employee of German public broadcaster ARD is critical of one and a half years of Corona coverage: Ole Skambraks has worked as an editorial assistant and editor at the public broadcaster for 12 years.

          I can no longer remain silent. I can no longer silently watch what has been going on for a year and a half now within my organization, a public service broadcaster. Things like “balance”, “social cohesion” and “diversity” in reporting are principles embedded in the statutes and media state contracts. Today, the exact opposite is happening. There is no true discourse and exchange in which all parts of society can come together and find common ground.

          • I see. Disgruntled anti-science conspiratorial lab leak, anti vax, Event 201, Ivermectin fanboi demands the credibility and media coverage provided to the widely accepted evidence-based medical response.

            Any more gems in your misinformation kit?

          • Instead of an open exchange of opinions, a “scientific consensus” was proclaimed, that must be defended. Anyone who doubts this and demands a multidimensional perspective on the pandemic, will reap indignation and scorn.

          • Blah blah, more meaningless drivel. The disgruntled anti-vaxer demands his and like-minded opinion are worth as much as the scientific consensus.
            I know not to expect a scintillating and compelling response M but really, try harder please.

          • A very thoughtful letter. An ordinary person who just can’t make sense of the nonsense and can’t go along with it without at least saying something.

          • Thanks for posting that letter.

            We talk about publication bias in medicine. Small positive pharmaceutical studies are published. Small negative ones are not. If someone does a met analysis of all that is published, the drug looks good.

            This has been the same. One side of the debate is published, while the other is silenced. And so it appears that there is a broad consensus.

          • This has been the same. One side of the debate is published, while the other is silenced. And so it appears that there is a broad consensus.

            If the consensus is fake, why is it usually right ?

    • Tell me where I can get the data and I’ll post it. As far as I know, it doesn’t exist.

      Hard to believe that you won’t re-subscribe until I do that.

      I’m thinking that now’s the time to lock comments to subscribers only. With publishers now liable for comments, now seems like the time.

      • Your site do as you wish. I have lowered the bar considerably, from asking for a single article addressing the possible truths around COVID which I believe would have been very informative to readers regardless where the facts took you. To a simple disclosre that the government is not sharing critical data about a the results of a major experiment on the countries health (vaccine outcomes).

        What are you so fearful of?

      • No offense but if you lock the comments to subscribers only I won’t renew my subscription next year. I appreciate the viewpoints of others, even if trolls, as it encourages me to seek further confirmation for my views or perhaps reevaluate due to information I knew nothing about.

        Reading the comments, particularly the ones that people hate on the most, have led me to some of the best investments in my life.

        • Fair enough. Point noted. But we also have to balance risks of getting sued for defamatory comments. Paying subscribers have ‘skin in the game’. Non-payers don’t. We don’t have time to moderate comments properly, so it’s a real worry for us.

          • I understand that, and appreciate your position. It would just be a major loss to me and is the main reason I still subscribe. Not to say your analysis of the current situations Australia faces are bad, quite the opposite, but being that Australia is completley fvcked and never going to change course, I find the articles to be less important as I can just assume whatever news it is, the Australian workers and middle class will be worse off. Yes I’ve lost all hope.

        Graph have way through. Note it’s a log scale. Vax reduces your risk to that of someone 30 years younger.
        This is UK data (ONS), which is similar to USA.
        Australia would be similar – probably slightly better for a number of reasons – better access to healthcare, fewer minorities who are (for various reasons) over-represented in deaths.

        BUT the data is not readily available in Australia because too few deaths. 1500 deaths (most in 2020 pre-vaccine) just don’t allow reliable subgroup analysis.

        • We all know vaccines reduce COVID mortality. Some people refuse to believe it, however, and want to denigrate MB for supporting vaccination.

          I’m being as honest as I can be and won’t pander to particular readers, even if it loses some subscribers.

          If I started peddling fake news to placate them, we’d no doubt lose far more.

      • If one of your colleagues had not been so arrogant and ignorant in 2020, then I too would still be a member.

          • Throughout 2020 I tried to convey timely, reliable and honest information as our understanding evolved. No biggie as I had t do that analysis anyway.

            Most of what I predicted has come to pass. Covid zero was fallacy that has done untold harm that will unfold for years and even decades to come. It was ridiculous to think we would eliminate this. That position resulted in DLS effectively telling me to piss off if I didn’t agree with his view. So I did.

            Maybe DLS is informed about the economy. I guess he most likely does,. But I don’t have the information necessary to assess his information. However he understood FA about this, and it showed. If someone spouts nonsense about something you know more about, then you have to take the rest with a grain of salt. Like everyone else, I can only extrapolate from what I can see to what I can’t.

          • Fair enough. Although those views of DLS’ were prior to vaccines.

            Vaccines changed everything. Letting the virus rip last year without vaccination was the wrong approach, IMO. It didn’t exactly work out well for countries that did. 2021 is an entirely different story.

          • Agreed. So all the social restrictions were (at best) a pause button while we developed vaccines. They we’re not an end solution.

            A lot of collateral damage has been spent pursuing this mirage. Some of us who tried to point out those damages were often silenced one way or another (on this site and others).

            Overall I think we got the balance wrong. Especially Victoria, which somehow managed to achieve the worst of all worlds.

            Anyway let’s leave it at that.

      • Locking because someone is having a sook seems a little OTT, but I get it. It’s less headachey.

        And you certainly will avoid me posting about Back to Back Dees Flags! (lol)

    • I am suspicious about the underlying health issues, never specified. If they look hard enough, they can probably find an “underlying health issue” for almost anyone. Don’t want people to think that it might happen to them and panic, do we?

    • The young have always been sacrificed to protect the old : wars are not fought by rich, old man.

      • Yes, war is an exception. But (by and large), western countries have relied on young who are willing to volunteer and serve. That was not the case with C19

        Many decisions regarding health funding rely on QALY (or similar) which is weighted towards the young.

        And by and large, most grandparents are more concerned about their grandchildren than they are about themselves.

    • In times past, older generations shouldered risks and hardships in order to help the young.

      Uh huh. How many old men went off to fight wars ?

      That all turned around in 2020. The young have carried a very disproportionate burden and cost in order to protect the elderly.

      Shown by the much higher death rate amongst the young ?

      • If you look at one metric to the exclusion of all others, you will not find the optimal balance. Life isn’t black and white. There are always compromises. There are always trade offs. There are always unintended consequences.

        But if you only want to look at deaths, then yes the elderly did worse. Age is a risk factor for most diseases. And it is a risk factor for dying (understood by actuaries and insurers).

        Having said that, latest EuroMOMO (and other) data is pointing to a recent excess of deaths in young and middle aged adults.

        • Having said that, latest EuroMOMO (and other) data is pointing to a recent excess of deaths in young and middle aged adults.

          So the burden borne by the young was to protect themselves as well I guess.

          • For Europe total it looks like 2nd half of this year there have been around 10k covid deaths per week (below 10k for July August, somewhere in the 10-20k since September). See
            At the same time the Euromo excess deaths chart you posted gives about 5k deaths per week on average. So it looks like less than average non-covid deaths.

            I also see that although there have been higher than average deaths in the 15-44 age group, the average in that 30 year age window has been about 100 per week for the whole European continent , and out of 4000 excess deaths per week. So higher excess concentrated in the age bands for people over 45 years of age, and generally fits the age structure of covid deaths around the world.

          • More likely suggests misattribution. It’s not as though cancer and coronary disease have suddenly subsided.
            But you and I have discussed this before and happy to agree to disagree.

        • data is pointing to a recent excess of deaths in young and middle aged adults

          Some non-consensus people are suggesting that the vaccines produce clotting, strokes and heart damage as a side-effect. These naughty unfactchecked people are suggesting that in the years ahead there will be many excess deaths related to strokes and heart attacks.

          If what they say is true, then I cannot see the elite being able to cover-up all the deaths.