Australian dollar catches energy tiger by the tail

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

DXY  pulled back on Friday night and the usual correlations applied. EUR was up:

Australian dollar bounced:

Commodities too though base metals are lagging:

And big miners struggled:

EM stocks look rooted:

And the EM junk warning siren is blaring ever louder:

Despite yields falling:

Stocks managed moderate gains:

Finally, CFTC market balances hit another record short last week:

The AUD is caught between the Chinese recession and fading global growth versus the short-term energy bubble. The former is very bearish for the currency while the latter is moderately bullish, via RBC:

Hence we are seeing these big daily moves both ways. I still expect the AUD bears to win in due course.

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