Australian dollar bullied by US jobs

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Friday night saw the Australian dollar bullied up and down as US jobs came in mixed. DXY ended marginally down and EUR up:

Australian dollar was firm:

Shorts are now extreme:

Oil lifted, gold fell:

Base metals popped:

Miners added a bit:

EM stocks too:

EM junk is SCREAMING a warning:

Yields lifted:

Stocks fell:

US jobs were mixed. Headline jobs were soft, the unemployment rate tanked:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 194,000 in September, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in retail trade, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment in public education declined over the month.

…The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 38,000, from +1,053,000 to +1,091,000, and the change for August was revised up by 131,000, from +235,000 to +366,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 169,000 higher than previously reported.

It was better than it looked. Goldman:

Nonfarm payrolls rose 194k in September, missing consensus for the second consecutive month. Disappointing job gains in leisure and hospitality and the decline in labor force participation suggest a drag from the Delta variant, and the return of in-person schooling failed to boost education jobs and accounted for 330kof the miss relative to our forecast. Other details were encouraging however, with169k of upward revisions, declines in the unemployment and underemployment rates, strong wage gains, and increases in work week and overtime hours. We don’t believe the combination of a Delta-related jobs miss and stronger-than-expected unemployment and wage data will impact the Fed’s tapering announcement, which we continue to expect at the November meeting. Our composition-corrected wage tracker stands at +3.7% in Q3 (vs. +3.4% in Q2).

Fed to taper directly into the US fiscal cliff, Chinese property bust, European stall and global energy shock. Duck for cover!

That’s why everybody is short AUD.

Houses and Holes
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Comments

  1. The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

    How the “cult of consultants” usurped the public service

    And yet, for over a decade, you, personally, have ignored anything and everything that persons who might possibly have had some insight into exactly that have had to say (except, quite reasonably, from Gunna). A2, Floors, Monty, and the list goes on.

    So whose fault is that then.

    Respect where it is due on calling out the political machinations, but on suppporting those trying, desperately, not to sell themselves down the river with the mindless jerks – where were you then?

  2. The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

    Shorts are now extreme

    True. But it’s summer (or spring if you can read a calendar but don’t understand seasons) in Qld. So there’s absolutely nothing to complain about on that score. Nudge, nudge, wink, wink, say no more.

    Edit: Also, the inevitable, and soon to be upon us (blessed be its name) shorts squeeze, ain’t going to hurt HODLers one little bit.

    • PalimpsestMEMBER

      Really a lot of shorts. Ripe for another short squeeze, so dangerous for small players. It suggests that when it breaks down, it could go with a bang and a whoosh. The Bulls are MIA.

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