From Roy Morgan Research:
ALP support has increased to 54% (up 1% point since mid-October) cf. L-NP on 46% (down 1% point) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted over the last two weekends.
The 1% point swing to the ALP came after the governing Liberal and National parties have spent the last few weeks ‘haggling’ about a change in policy for the Government to support a target of “Net Zero” carbon dioxide emissions for Australia by 2050.
The Liberal Party under the leadership of Prime Minister Scott Morrison has been pushing to be able to make this commitment at the upcoming United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, Scotland whereas the National Party has resisted the reform. The latest news over the weekend is that the National Party has voted narrowly to support this reform although clear divisions remain within the party with at least one National Party Senator vowing to campaign against the change.
Government support weakens in Queensland and NSW over the last two weeks
The arguing between the Liberal and National parties regarding the Government’s policy on carbon dioxide emissions targets has been most intense in Queensland and although still leading, the LNP has lost support. In Queensland the LNP is now on 51.5% (down 3.5% points since mid-October) cf. ALP 48.5% (up 3.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. Despite the LNP’s lead this represents a swing of 6.9% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
In NSW former Premier Gladys Berejiklian, who resigned in early October, has been questioned by ICAC – the Independent Commission Against Corruption over the last few weeks over her relationship with former State MP Darryl Maguire. Berejiklian is the third Liberal Premier in NSW to resign amidst allegations of corruption.
The scandal surrounding Berejiklian has certainly hurt the Liberal Party and the ALP has increased its lead in NSW over the last two weeks with ALP support now up 2% points to 55.5% cf. L-NP on 44.5% (down 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a swing of 7.3% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be elected with a similar margin to that won by John Howard at the 1996 Federal Election (ALP 53.6% cf. L-NP 46.4%).
This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Roy Morgan Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing last weekend. Roy Morgan interviewed 2,778 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of October 16/17 & 23/24, 2021. A higher than usual 8% of electors (up 0.5% points from mid-October) can’t say who they support.
Primary Voting Intention dropped for both major parties in October, but up for the Greens
Primary support for the L-NP was down 1% point to 36.5% in October and is still ahead of the ALP which was also down 1% point to 35%.
In contrast to the two major parties, Greens support increased by 2% points to 13.5% as media attention in October turned to Australia’s response to global warming and climate change.
Support for One Nation was up 0.5% points to 3.5% while support for Independents/Others was down 0.5% points to 11.5%.
Voting Intention by State shows the ALP leading in Victoria, WA & Tasmania
Voting analysis by State shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in four States including Victoria, New South Wales, Western Australia and Tasmania. In contrast, the LNP leads only in Queensland and South Australia.
The ALP leads in Victoria on 56.5% (up 0.5% points since mid-October) compared to the L-NP on 43.5% (down 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a swing of 3.4% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.
The situation in Western Australia is unchanged with the ALP on 55% (unchanged since mid-October) well ahead of the L-NP on 45% (unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis. This result reprensents a massive swing of 10.6% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
The L-NP has regained the lead in South Australia with a significant increase in support with the L-NP 51.5% (up 6% points since mid-October) now ahead of the ALP on 48.5% (down 6% pointws) on a two-party preferred basis. This represents a swing of 2.2% points to the L-NP since the 2019 Federal Election. The ALP continues to enjoy a strong lead in Tasmania with the ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42% – a swing of 2% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.