Victoria’s delta outbreak spirals

Victoria has recorded an outbreak high 535 locally acquired COVID cases and one death:

Almost all were mystery cases. Of the 535 local cases, only 62 have so far been linked to known cases and outbreaks.

Daily cases continue to climb:

They are running far ahead of NSW’s outbreak at the same point in time:

Victoria’s active cases are about to pass 5000:

And Victoria’s active cases are tracking ahead of NSW at the same time:

Enjoy your picnics this weekend Melburnians.

Unconventional Economist


  1. Reff now 1.19 – massive slowdown in increase in daily cases since a week ago, lowest so far this month. It would better if it was at or below one so cases stopped growing altogether or shrank, but far far better than if growth had continued at the same rate as last week or even accelerated.

  2. yep, someone died “with” cv-19 – while no loss of life is every desirable, people die every day from a multitude of different causes. This false belief that we need to protect everyone and people agreeing with this sentiment has given governments the opportunity to ignore many constitutional rights and implied freedoms that were designed to protect citizens from this type of behavior. The constitution when written was aware of pandemics, yet it did not include any provision for them to bypass implied freedoms.

    Then lets talk data – we want to see the verifiable data and published information that is driving the current lockdown.

    People appear to be highly gullible, have you not noticed the constant changing narrative, the next variant that mysteriously seems to plug the gap in the narrative to allow them to target the next group. For instance the original variants didnt affect children or young people, now the new variants do. And how quickly these new variants appear. And flu has totally disappeared, how is this possible ??

    We have all been sold a lie to the largest removal of our freedoms in history, and many of you are so sh!t scared for your own skin and the minor possibility you will catch it and die that you willingly give up your freedoms. When will you recognize what a modern day dictatorship looks like? Only when its to late will many of you realize your blindness.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      What utter Bullsh!t. Try growing up 15 minutes from the East German border.

      You guys are the very definition of man-children.

      You can’t even imagine what totalitarian government is like. It’s not what we are living through. Stick to playing XBox! πŸ™„

      • So your going to accept a gradual loss if freedom? At what point will you say enough is enough and stand an fight? Or do you think total control of Australian citizens and they movement permanently is considered acceptable??

        And assuming you’ve had both jabs, are you aware that very soon boosters every 6 months is going to be the norm or you loose your social status?? Consider this a good thing for youe kids abd their kids?

        • Based on experience in the US and UK, we have already saved nearly 50000 lives with lockdowns. The great irony is the leaders that keep speaking of, β€œOh I don’t want to be telling people what to do. I respect their freedoms – blah blah,” are the same ones that put you all in the mess you are in. I get why people are tired of lockdowns but, you’re actually missing the point about why this has gone on for so long and why we can’t just let it rip. We need to vaccinate more of the population because we are not just talking about a few lives and there are other consequential impacts.

          • You assume based on information and projections that many has been saved. Have you looked in the data or any counter arguments? For instance where has the flu gone?

            As for the jab, let me give you an alternate thought, if I said invest money with me, $100,000, i’ll give you $5,000 return per month. You ask me if i’ve ever invested money before, I reply I have never tested my investment strategy outside a computer or lab environment and this is my first ever trial with real money (yours). Would you give me a $100k? I highly doubt, you’d be stupid if you did (some would though). Then after the first month not only do I not make any money, I take a $20 loss, but I ask you for another $100k. What would your position be at the moment? Would you let me keep the remaining $80K to invest or would you double down on your already bad move and give me another $100k ??

            This is what everyone is doing with the jab, mRNA has never been trialed on humans before, we are the trial, thats right, we are the trial, and they have no human data to back up their claims with, yet we pile on in like its the best thing since sliced bread while the pharma companies rack in mega billions in profits all while have all governments wave full indemnity rights against them to be sued. Who in their right mind would take this jab based on these conditions ??

          • As for the jab, let me give you an alternate thought, if I said invest money with me, $100,000, i’ll give you $5,000 return per month. You ask me if i’ve ever invested money before, I reply I have never tested my investment strategy outside a computer or lab environment and this is my first ever trial with real money (yours).

            If the hysterical tone wasn’t sufficient, the utterly absurd comparisons like this cement why it’s safe to ignore what you are writing.

        • Your hysterical comments are annoying. We’re not living in Hitler’s Deutschland but in a democracy (poorly run and corrupt, I grant you) but are experiencing a pandemic which would, as numerous commenters have politely pointed out, but for lockdowns and other measures, have resulted in 50,000 deaths, which anyone with a modicum of intelligence can realise by looking at what has occurred in most other countries.

          Give up with the imbecilic outrage, grow up and suck it up.

          And for your own sake, get the jab. (It only hurts a teensie bit and 5 billion other people have done it)

          • Lord DudleyMEMBER

            These anti-vaxxers won’t listen. They’re incurable narcissistic morons.

            It is time to stop arguing with them, and time to start excluding them from EVERYTHING. No jab, no job, no school, no restaurants, no pubs, no doctor visits, no hotels, no flights.

            These people are garbage. It is time to start ruining their lives with prejudice.

            And it will happen. Everyone sane is sick to death of the “kill all the fatties” anti-vaxxer brigade of insufferable irresponsible idiots. It’s time to ruin these people.

      • I’d have more respect for that opinion if up here in NSW, when lifting the night-time curfew in SW Sydney, Gladys hadn’t indicated it was done as a “gesture of gratitude” for the vaccination uptake. The assumed default position now seems to be severe curbs on movement, living and livelihoods with the government giving us a little easing of restrictions here and there in return for unwavering compliance to their intrusion into large parts of our lives.
        That people seem to have largely accepted this approach and it is somehow now considered quite reasonable is disturbing.

    • The Penske FileMEMBER

      +1. History will look back poorly on the way we handled this serious flu issue. Our kids will really be pissed when they get the bill.

      • “Our kids will really be pissed when they get the bill.”

        Chances are they will just obey and pay GST in the 25% and accept 10% tax hike across the bottom end…
        The education system of today does not shape thinking minds

    • Its deliriously absurd that the group think cult you belong too advocates austerity for all social ills and then can’t wrap your head around the idea of austerity for a virus that kills and maims humans thus stealing their freedoms.

      • Do us all a favor, don’t bother replying, we have no idea what your going on about. It’s clearly so intelligent that we lay people don’t understand.

        • Are you arguing from a pretense that ignorance is the preferred framework by which one should ascertain the particulars of this health related event and anything done to mitigate it is some commie agenda to steal your freedoms – ????? – seriously.

          I mean so long as your willing to accept all the social freedoms that were given away to fight the hoards from the ME from stealing freedoms, decades of fear from commies in the wood pile necessitating hiding under your desk in fear drills for the bomb that was coming, white anting vast swaths of government/public health/research infrastructure that now means it has to be outsourced to some private mob that is more interested in self licking ice cream cones so the well heeled can be worshiped by all for their grandeur, please ….

          BTW whom is this ***ALL*** you speak of and this *** Royal WE *** that you deploy so authoritatively like it has some force[tm] in presenting an informed rebuttable … trying to take my freedom away are we – ?????

          • It might be your lofty ideas but I suspect it is the tortured syntax, incoherent sentence construction and absent grammar which render your scribblings unintelligible.

          • Please desist with the hand waving and have a go at the argument if you can.

            I mean for someone that is beholden to ex nihilo a prioris that rich to hear when banging on about indecipherable syntax or dialectal offerings.

    • Yes, I am very suspicious of the ‘flu disappearing’ narrative for the simple reason we know influenza has plenty of animal reservoirs. So at a minimum it will come back.
      Part of the reduction (particularly for 2020) is likely the reduction in testing for other respiratory pathogens because of pressure on reagent supply combined with people simply avoiding doctor visits unless they absolutely have to. You can’t measure what isn’t being tested.
      Also the ‘with’ Covid cause of death metric is highly dubious at best without a clear indication that it was in fact ‘because of’. Even more difficult if patient is near end-of-life anyway, you’re simply not going to be doing a forensic autopsy in those circumstances.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Diluted lolliwater from Mudgee! There’s better Mudgee producers, if you can’t drink a left bank Bordeaux instead that is.

      • The Traveling Wilbur πŸ™‰πŸ™ˆπŸ™Š

        Look, in all seriousness, normally I’d just roll with that comment at face value, but the 2015 (or deity forbid 2014 vintage if you can find one from there still) is exceptional value for money.

        It’s not a twenty dollar wine trying hard. It’s a hundred dollar plus wine that wasn’t recognised by the winery that processed the third-party grapes. It’s that good.

        Every other bottle I own I’m cellaring for at least 4 more years. This was literally the last bottle to be drunk before 2026, and it was wonderful.

  3. Who here has studied psychology?? Domestic abuse and psychology? I suggest you start studying, you’ll open your eyes to everything they are doing

      • Every American seems to have studied PSYCH101 and knows that being “anal” is something to do with having a pencil stuck up your bum.

          • Look up dumbing down ….

            Used to crack up at the paramedical papers my ex wife used to grade, bar lowered to get “product” into the market place and then let the market sort out everything post facto, not that some are on the hook for the debt or anything else like a flood of morons with no life experience, but malleable[tm], just like with the dotcom bubble and then people wonder why so many services are rubbish at best …

          • I wish that the “dumbing down of America” was just an education measurement aberration, I truly do wish that it was just an aberration, but it’s not.
            But here’s the thing, if American high school education is just a joke, what does that make Australian High school education?
            Lets ignore measurement methodology and instead lets just focus on the global commercial advantage which this education should be delivering. Yep I’m back at Economic Complexity theory and I’m back looking at my favorite map of the world the Atlas of Economic Complexity.
            do yourself a favor and check out this link, plug in countries like Australia, US, China. and see which economies have gained commercial advantage over the last 20 years. Now go over to some organization like PISA
            and see if there’s any correlation between “better” education (PISA results) and better outcomes wrt raising Economic Complexity..
            Now assuming that your still with me on this line of thought. What does a dramatic decrease in Economic Complexity “like Australia’s 1995 to 2020 trip” tell us about our education system? Does this correlate with PISA? do yourself a favor, play with the data, plot the graphs, download the datasets, make your own graphs, do the work. Please do the work because the correlation is undeniable, these two widely different metrics are joined at the hip both on the way up and on the way down.

        • The Traveling Wilbur πŸ™‰πŸ™ˆπŸ™Š

          Well if you’re complaining about anything that put some lead in your pencil, that’s a personal problem.

    • Yes, I have studied psychology and abuse.

      You are facing a virus that if left to rip unabated would kill maybe 2% of the population, possibly more depending on the extent to which the hospital system is overwhelmed. You get to choose how you would like to trade off your personal freedoms against the deaths of 500,000 other Australians and you get to vote in line with your morals.

      You have a vaccine available that reduces the risk of hospitalisation by more than 90%

      The country will reopen. If you don’t take the vaccine then you will contract the virus — we all will at some point — and about 2% of the unvaccinated will die.

      If you want to die by not being vaccinated, go ahead with my blessing.

      • “If you want to die by not being vaccinated, go ahead with my blessing” I’d be perfectly happy if everyone would take the same attitude, let people decide their own fate, rather than state or businesses becoming the de facto owners of our bodies.

  4. NSW have 1083 cases today, 13 death. Over 80% first does and 50% second does have reduced the number of cases, and more importantly, the number of people in ICU have not exploded. So vaccination is working. Victoria is about 10% behind NSW in vaccination, however that is less than 2 weeks. So lockdown will be over in November everywhere.

    That is still two months away though.