Victoria’s COVID outbreak swells as reopening roadmap released

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Victoria has recorded another 567 locally acquired COVID cases – the highest number this outbreak:

One person has also died.

The next chart plots Victoria’s daily cases:

Victoria’s daily cases are running way ahead of NSW’s at the same point in time:

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Total active cases have climbed to nearly 5700:

And Victoria’s active cases are running ahead of NSW’s at the same point in their outbreak:

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Yesterday, Victorian Premier Dan Andrews released the state’s reopening roadmap. In a nutshell:

  • Once 80% of eligible Victorians have had a single dose of a Covid-19 vaccine – expected late this week – Melburnians will be able to do outdoor sports like tennis and golf and travel 15km from their homes.
  • At 70% double dose – anticipated by late October – Melbourne’s hard lockdown will end, students will start return to school, and hospitality venues can host up to 50 fully vaccinated patrons. But retail and gyms will remain shut.
  • At 80% fully vaccinated – set for early November – up to 10 fully vaccinated people will be able to visit someone else’s home and retail/gyms will reopen subject to density limits.
  • Regional Victoria will have restrictions eased at a faster pace.
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Premier Andrews also stated at yesterday’s press conference that:

  • 87% of Victorian hospital admissions are unvaccinated. Only 1% are fully vaccinated.
  • Modelling by the Burnett Institute predicts that Victorian daily cases will peak at 4500 by mid-December and hospital admissions will peak late December.

Thus, Melburnians – who on Thursday will to become the world’s most locked-down residents – are facing months more pain.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.