Victoria’s COVID outbreak spirals further out of control

Victoria has recorded another 450 locally acquired COVID cases over the past 24 hours – a fresh outbreak high:

The overwhelming majority were mystery cases with only 75 of the 450 local cases linked to known cases and outbreaks.

The next chart plots the break-out in daily cases across Victoria:

VIC daily cases

Victoria’s daily cases are now tracking way above NSW’s at the same point in their outbreak:

NSW vs Vic daily cases

Victoria’s local active cases have ballooned to nearly 2800:

VIC active cases

And Victoria’s total active cases are also tracking ahead of NSW’s at the same point in time [note: NSW has changed the way it reports active cases, which has caused the latest sharp drop]:

NSW vs VIC active cases

Victoria is clearly losing control of the virus.

Unconventional Economist
Latest posts by Unconventional Economist (see all)


    • Sure. But people are burnt out after ~225 days of lockdown. Can you blame them?

      They should loosen restrictions on low risk stuff (e.g. small groups meeting outside, skate/BMX parks, etc) and police the high risk stuff that matters.

      If you want compliance, treat people like adults.

      • I guess I think it’s a bit of both. My observation is that everyone has worked out that they can go anywhere, mask or no mask, and chances of consequences of any sort are slim to non-existent. You don’t need to be very fed up to say ‘screw it’ if you perceive the negative outcome to not exist.

          • Yep there is a track next to a road on the way to my daughters school, I often see a few boys out there digging dirt piles and making ramps, occasionally it looks like the dad is helping as well.

            i’d conservatively estimate around 50% of people either arnt wearing masks at all, or have them pulled down, people are at all the parks and generally people are now actively working on getting around the restrictions without getting caught, its becoming a sport.

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            You are in the highest vaccinated, highest work from home area in the state.

            The greater distance from the SE/NE leafy Melbourne suburbs, the lower the compliance.

            There are large groups of out of suburb teens & young adults roaming around Ivanhoe Golf course. The Police blow through everyday and disperse them. 30 minutes later they are back!

            It’s going to be a long summer.


            Just don’t stack yer pushy when hospitals are full, can’t expect they’d be giving A1 treatment for some little fck who couldn’t stick the landing.

          • Sure – but it’s not like the gov’t is leaving it all out on the field. Easy to police stuff for the most part they aren’t doing. Compared to big lockdown, there’s about 10% foot patrols. This lockdown the gov’t gave up before it began, and even spiralling case number aren’t getting them motivated again.

      • Problem is its a bit late now after 18 months of rank stupidity nationwide. The economic consequences of which are going to be felt for a long time. Even just the reputation of the country internationally.

    • Dan has lost his social license. The ban on outdoor alcohol has driven it indoors, and closing the playgrounds was a ‘jump the shark’ moment. Victoria’s Reff will be higher than NSW.

  1. Anthony RogersMEMBER

    A family member is contact tracing in Vic. Told me they are now only tracing cases back 2 days rather than 14 days from positive test. Also said the West Gate was packed when region Vic unlocked.


      I’m in regional Vic coastal town. Mental down here today and I don’t imagine everyone’s flooded from around regional vicco to be here.. Local outbreak in 3..2…1…

        • C'est de la folieMEMBER

          I can tell you for a fact that Geelong and Torquay were pumping today. People everywhere not masked up of with masks down under their nose. My guess is that we will see Geelong catch its Covid moment soon enough

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            It’s already all over mon frer. In that respect at least.

            There will be epidemiologists booking out flights from here until New Years (metaphorically speaking) gagging to get on the ground to study what comes next. The ‘wisdom of the crowd’ and its behavior, at this point, matters not. Effectively it’s already happened. It won’t be the end of the world, but it won’t be pretty. Hopefully, it makes the Libs unelectable for generations AND manages to soil Labor’s penchant for lowering poor people’s living standards. We can but dream.

            Where we are now, and I choose my visual imagery carefully and inline with several MB core concepts, is a group of harried old hags with funny accents sitting at the foot of the steps on which Madame Guillotine is mounted muttering to each other about how nice the last one’s hair looked, and “that one this morning didn’t half go a funny colour”.

            The execution has already happened.
            All that is left is to dispose of the corpses. And do a little knitting to pass the time as we wait.

  2. Sydney and Melbourne need to be opened up third world cheap labour ASAP as their economies depend on it.

    Gladys and Danny wanted this to happen but the other states are understandably dragging the chain.

    • C'est de la folieMEMBER

      Thats pretty much what I reckon. But my understanding is that they threw in the towel the moment their counterparts in NSW fessed up that there was not a hope in hell of controlling it there

  3. NelsonMuntzMEMBER

    [note: NSW has changed the way it reports active cases, which has caused the latest sharp drop]
    That’s Numberwang! Gladys and Bruz have fixed teh thing.

  4. The Penske FileMEMBER

    Luckily Danistan locked down for five days so it didn’t turn into 5 weeks or 5 months. 10% more vaccination % points and let it rip. People who want to hide under their beds can.

  5. My opinion is that they are now deliberately letting it rip in order to get people motivated enough to be vaccinated so they can return to their normal population ponzi program.

    • C'est de la folieMEMBER

      I know it sounds paranoid, but I think the whole escape of Covid in Australia has been taken as an opportunity by the Gladys and ScoMo end of town, who seized their moment get the outcome they wanted.

      • I’m of the same opinion, “we need to live with the virus rhetoric” and trying to push other states to open like WA and QLD etc.. it’s psycho behaviour, I just wondering if they will be punished for it at the ballot box. NZ is perfect example of “Not having to live with the virus” and living a normal existence. I mean, vaccination is only a partial solution, not a full solution.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Never assume malicious intent and planning when sheer incompetence will get the winner over the line. Especially when both options yield the same results anyway.

    • My impression from nearly the get-go has been the Fed government has done as little as possible hoping for an uncontrollable breakout so they can just shrug their soldiers and say “well, can’t do anything about it now”.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER


        Bernard Woolley : What if the Prime Minister insists we help them?

        Sir Humphrey Appleby : Then we follow the four-stage strategy.

        Bernard Woolley : What’s that?

        Sir Richard Wharton : Standard Foreign Office response in a time of crisis.

        Sir Richard Wharton : In stage one we say nothing is going to happen.

        Sir Humphrey Appleby : Stage two, we say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it.

        Sir Richard Wharton : In stage three, we say that maybe we should do something about it, but there’s nothing we *can* do.

        Sir Humphrey Appleby : Stage four, we say maybe there was something we could have done, but it’s too late now.

  6. Well it’s official, we are now in Clayton’s territory…Clayton’s restrictions which will be followed by a Clayton’s lockdown. Stick a fork in it,we’re all done.

Leave a reply

You must be logged in to post a comment. Log in now