Victoria’s COVID outbreak spirals further out of control

Victoria has recorded another 628 COVID cases and three deaths:

The next chart shows the rise in daily cases:

Cases continue to run way ahead of NSW at the same point in their outbreak:

Victoria now has more than 6200 active cases:

And active cases are running well ahead of NSW at the same point in their outbreak:

Tomorrow, Melbourne takes the world record as the most lockdown city at 235 days. We will beat that by a long margin.

Unconventional Economist


  1. Fifth day in a row with Reff less than 1.2, Billington now projecting early October daily case peak less than 1000. Could be quite a lot worse.

      • Sure it’s a miserable place to be right now – hard to find joy in anything now and no reason to think any point in the future will be better.
        But by the same token it’s not ‘further out of control’ when the Reff is substantially lower than it was a little over a week ago – if we stayed on the path we were on when Reff nearly reached 1.68 we’d be looking at 1300 plus daily cases by now according to Billington, and peaking above 5000 cases per day – even if that projection is off, definitely cases would a great deal higher. That was truly out of control, and somehow we seem to be less out of control than we were then.
        So let’s take solace where it’s available, even if it’s not enough to deserve celebration.

        • Test are disconnected from cases. Cases are disconnected from severe consequences as he head closer to max vaccine coverage.

          The key links are hospital admissions, deaths and vaccination status. If they can break it down by age and co-morbidity status then even better.

        • You are of course, right.

          Methinks “spiraling” is 2021’s le mot du jour, whereas 2020’s was “draconian”….. amusant 🙂

  2. Hope you Victorians are all ok after that earthquake.

    Am I right in saying it coincided with Melbourne taking the record for the most locked town city on the world?

    • Lol. Quite disconcerting actually. A reminder that there’s some things we (technology) can’t control (quite a lot actually)

  3. …and reports of % of waxed in ICU seems to have gone the Ep Stein way…..

    Cool, that is an indication by itself