Victoria’s COVID outbreak deteriorates

Victoria has recorded another 779 locally acquired COVID cases over the past 24 hours and two deaths:

The next chart plots Victoria’s daily cases:

While today’s cases are lower than yesterday’s peak, the rate of infection has increased:

Victoria’s daily cases continue to track way ahead of NSW at the same point in their outbreak:

And Victoria’s total active cases have risen above 8000 – surpassing last year’s peak of 7880 active cases:

Finally, vaccination is working to prevent sever infection, with 79% of Victoria’s hospital admissions unvaccinated:

Unconventional Economist
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    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      No, no, no…that’s not because of the vaccine, that’s because folk who get vaccinated are fraidy cats who wear masks and social distance and isola…oh, wait…

      • Provided vaccination status isn’t being used as an admission criterion, you might have a hypothesis there. Not hard to juke the stats by making vaccination status an admission criterion. The drug company ‘science’ says it’s a risk factor and then the behaviour changes in the field, providing the data to back up the initial ‘science’. Circular reasoning.

    • On the plus side the jabs seem to reduce risk of dying from Covid by about 90% in the medium term.

      On the negative side the jabs seem to increase risk of dying shortly after taking the jab (short term):

      The long term effects of the jabs are unknown.

      Mathematically considering only the short term and medium term effects from above, the case for taking the jab revolves around the chance of catching Covid. If high chance, then take jab. If low chance, then not.

      I welcome further input.

      • If high chance, then take jab. If low chance, then not.
        Yes, I think we’ve noticed the attitude towards the vaccine suddenly changed after Merdejiklian opened the floodgate.

        • Vic gov & police appear to have really convinced themselves they are engaged in a war. It started as a war against C19, but gradually spread became a war on the people. Wars are easy to get into but hard to get out of. This will be no exception.

          History shows that human rights & common decency have often been trampled in such situations.

        • The impact of wilfully disobeying covid health advice by those opposing ‘tyranny’ might also be worthy of consideration in coming days

  1. Two deaths? That IS a significant deterioration from the VIC point of view.
    Always outdone by Merdejiklian’s double digit deaths daily, though.


    An informed and balanced commentary on the vaccine, balancing benefit to the individual vaccinated, benefit to society as a whole, and ethics.

    The current generation of vaccines are primarily about protecting yourself – not others.

    I’m happy to have been vaccinated. But I’m middle aged and in a high risk occupation.

    Having been vaccinated, I would encourage others to consider their situation and make a reasoned decision.

    But I respect the rights of those who see the current evidence differently and therefore come to a different decision.

    Some valid points and concerns here also

  3. C'est de la folieMEMBER

    Sorry for the mega blurb – but I am literally sitting and writing out my thinking about the great Covid experience started vis the below and 90 minutes later ended up with a rant…..

    ‘I feel like I’m mourning’: Can friendships broken in the pandemic be repaired?

    The backdrop for moi

    I have people who I know, friends, who are both rabidly anti vaccine and pro vaccine, and who also think that the virus (COVID) is a major health event, and that there are very major questions to ask about it.

    I have been vaccinated, but I dont really understand where vaccination takes us as a public health event management strategy and have doubts about any given vaccine currently being employed. I also respect the concept of people having a choice about whether they have a vaccine or not.

    ………FWIW ……my wife had her first Pfizer shot yesterday, she was still in the vaccination clinic when she virtually passed out, and they had her lay down for about 15 minutes and then brought her out to the gate in a wheelchair. She sat on the couch all evening with a headache feeling very cold – my kids are pretty shaken. More than once I thought about getting her down to the local emergency ward (which would almost certainly involve a big wait). I have another mate who recently had his second Pfizer shot and was hospitalized for a couple of days. I had AstraZeneca and although a touch ropey after the first shot was fine afterwards.

    Nutters and vaccination

    I look at events like what seems to be happening in Melbourne and wonder where this is all heads. Cops seemingly going a touch over the top for what are reasonably small crowds of generally poorly informed people (from what I have seen of the videos) who are keen to make a public nuisance of themselves, who seem to me to have been given a starting detonation (at least) by large numbers of building workers mainly concerned about their jobs in the face of a building site vaccination mandate.

    I dont really see vaccination mandates as making all that much sense because as I currently understand things all vaccines are basically ‘wearing off’ after about 6 months. To me this means that nearly everyone would need to be vaccinated at nearly the same time [which isnt going to happen given the completely palsied vaccine rollout we have had in Australia, but also around the world].

    From there I go to a point where if that is true then I see all forms of vaccine mandate – including vaccine passports – as essentially being vaccination date dependent. Valid for a certain period after the date of the second vaccination. That then brings us to booster shots and the need for these to be rolled out a whole heap more intelligently than the initial vaccines.

    I see loads more protests when the need for booster shots becomes more widely understood, when the limitations of vaccine passports becomes more widely understood, and also when – even with up to 100% of people vaccinated [which I dont think they are going to get] – there will still be an ongoing need for lockdowns in specific locations where the virus is spreading, or if the virus evolves into other forms [which my reading tells me it almost certainly will].

    At that point I would note that I have some highly intelligent and respected friends who are daily sending me messages or emails questioning the advent of the virus and its arrival in Australia.

    How did we get here?

    On the advent of the virus I think the narrative we have is about as good as it is going to get. The virus emanated from Wuhan or nearby in China, probably related to SARS, probably from animals. While on the one hand I completely agree there should be a thorough global investigation and as much genetic virology based examination of whatever has happened as possible, I also tend to the view that the geopolitical angle will become so pronounced that there will be loads of countering ‘data’ ‘information’ ‘theory’ making it that much more difficult for ordinary people to come to some conclusions about what has happened. But I do think the debate about what it is will continue for quite some time to come – particularly while we have riots, and cops belting people and people clogging up intensive care wards. And the longer the imbroglio goes on the more trenchant will become the calls for information on how this came about.

    The other question about the advent of the virus is ‘just how serious is it?’ I personally totally get the idea that a fairly small number of cases which lead to a cytokine storm inside the body – even if it is people with comorbidities [especially obesity, diabetes and age related conditions] – will lead to overwhelmed ICU systems almost everywhere. This effect will be amplified by the inclination of medical systems to either cut down on or limit the number of ICU beds and facilities, as has been the case any time forward of the mid 1990s in Australia, and far longer in places like the UK. IC systems are easily overwhelmed by numbers of the type COVID seemingly can produce. But that doesnt get me away (because I have loads of people pointing this out to me) that for most people this virus is likely to be a heavy form of flu. So that has me thinking that messaging from decisionmakers needs to be pitched at those who arent all that likely to get a bad dose of the virus about why there needs to be lockdowns and mass vaccinations.


    That sort of leads me back to thinking lock downs make sense – because if we assume the virus is a real health threat then we dont want people getting the virus, both for their own sake and for the sake of the public health system. But at that point I think it would be true to say that for many people lockdowns have a limited durability. I personally dont have an issue with lockdowns but I have continued to head into my job every day of the last 18 months and am still out and about, as well as not having a rabid social life. I am in touch with friends every day by message or email, I communicate with people all over the world. Not everyone is me. It would seem to me that plenty of people have major problems with lockdowns. I have seen first hand data suggesting that these have major mental health effects on people, and have asked both my children if they are OK with them – my son (15) copes fine with them so he tells me, but I wonder about his school [despite him getting good marks].

    I am connected socially with people who are rabidly against lockdowns. These arent yet protesting like those in Melbourne, but many are strongly sympathetic and beaming my inboxes full of supportive messages and emails. That said I think many people like me (and my wife) are quite capable of doing lockdown and lead pretty quiet lives, and pretty much just do as they are told they should do. But I think longer term lockdowns lead to some fairly rebellious thoughts about the authorities, and regulations, enforcing lockdowns and quarantine compliance and all sort of weird bureaucracy which irritates people [even me] in circumstances which seem trivial or pettifogging or even deliberately intended to offend.

    Some of the bureaucracy adopted at workplace level is simply silly -..…….. I work in a location where two floors of a building which has one air conditioning system are told that people on the bottom floor need to exit enter through one door and those on the first floor need to enter exit through another door and that the workplace is effectively two separate workplaces despite there being no airlock, and that people on the lower floor hand files (via lift) to people on the second. This is dubiously influenced by the known fact that all of our chiefs are working from home – and tend to spend much of their time beaming out irritatingly silly missives about ‘lockdown lunches’ by zoom, about how much they ‘care’ for what we do, and want to ‘thank’ us [which all tends to underpin a mindset of they couldnt give a rats toss and want to clutter our day with bullshit emails].

    As someone who has good contact with some significant executive types with larger public and corporate bureaucracies I find myself wondering if that widespread disenchantment with ‘the bosses’ (which I believe exists) isnt also affecting the way we see the major political and administrative decisions (ie they are largely bullshit but we will go along with them until they become so inconvenient that we cant live with them, and we assume the net beneficiaries of them will be people other than us).

    The messaging

    As someone who works, outside my day job, in the field of communications and writing/editing things, I find much of the advent and communications about COVID simply mystifying. I get that the ‘leaders’ have taken time to come to grips with what they are dealing with and what can be deployed to deal with it. But the real question here becomes, why havent they simply acknowledged that they are essentially making things up as they go and been as open about it as they can be. Why dont they simply acknowledge ‘we dont know if this is going to work, but we think this is our best bet given the parameters we have and the implications we think the virus could have’ coupled with a far clearer ‘we will support ordinary people no matter what, so dont worry about your jobs’ type of thinking. The messaging from, my point of view seems to be very half baked around the latter – ranging from ‘arent we nice to have given money to your employers to keep you all employed’ to ‘you’re on your own’ – and on the former seems far too reliant on the ‘we know what is best for you so do as we say’ when it appears that those conveying this message have essentially cocked things up on the allowing the virus to Australia and of things, unless we adopt a position of ‘this virus was deliberately allowed into Australia to affect Australians, because that is best for Australia’ which would have the effect of a lot of people assuming that the virus is nothing more than a bad flu and that they should be allowed to continue doing as they were in December 2019, and makes a complete mockery of exhortations to get vaccinated and desirability to have 80% of people vaccinated emanating from these same people.

    Work From Home

    My personal take is that the WFH experience is going to be one of the really big takeaways from the virus advent. But that for the most part people dont know how that is going to play out or precisely what it means for people. A sighter of the type of experience is in the larger number of people who do a lot of work from home – IT types, creative writers, spreadsheet analysts and the like. But a lot more people don’t yet know what it means for the very large numbers of Australians who work in larger organisations and need to be onsite to be part of the ‘team’ – even if that is mainly to be seen to be part of the team (and/or kiss butt).

    The real question for a lot of Australians is ‘does WFH now mean I am competing with people in call centres in India to be efficient in my job?’ and ‘will my income expectations be tailored by these?’

    Beyond that though there is some major scope to ask about what can actually be done from home. I think that there is scope to start school later, and do a lot more school from home, and to organise socialising activities for kids in other ways. I do a lot of work from home as a freelancer (away from a day job) so I am pretty familiar with quite complex activities which can be undertaken nearly 100% on line (last year I did a HR like function for an organisation on three continents, in half a dozen different time zones). A question for those higher up and thinking more strategically in those organisations will be ‘how secure are our communications?’ or ‘what happens if our subordinates start organising themselves and communicating with each other in ways which we feel are inimical to the ‘organisation’ as we see it?’

    The Macro needs vaccination – and our government seems keen to ‘let us rip’

    But that’s all ahead of us here in Australia. We currently live in an economy which relies almost solely on iron ore/commodity exports to China – whom we have mightily peeved off – or services of the type which can be sourced worldwide far cheaper than they can here (some IT types notwithstanding). Almost no complex activity involving Australians and Australian systems is cost effective at a global competition level and our lone stab at doing something more complex revolves around selling citizenship to those who are prepared to cough up for some of the world’s most expensive university qualifications. That dynamic is the underpinning of the world’s most heavily indebted people.

    The same lack of preparedness to level with Australians about the ‘making it up as we go’ response to COVID comes though at this angle as a straight out bullshit ‘things are pretty good’, ‘house prices are up’, ‘we are opening up’ type thinking which doesn’t address observable shortcomings with that narrative.

    And in the meantime those nutters protesting in Melbourne might just really set off a fuse if the heavily indebted Australian punterariat becomes animated by a macro arguably far more damaging than their risk of a COVID related spell in intensive care.

  4. This guy is basically saying what Pfh has been saying about everyone having an account with the central bank. However he is talking about a digital currency built on top of the current system. He doesn’t think the Fed will do it, but it certainly makes sense and would no doubt be a move away from the private banking sector. Interesting times!

  5. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Things I learnt today.

    Not only did the WuFlu come from outer space by hitching a ride on satellites, those very same satellites are used by the new world order to create natural disasters. This is to provide cover for ‘aid groups’ to go in with the intention to kidnap tens of thousands of children to put in underground dungeons. *waves at Paedo Dan*

    The reason for outrageous behaviour by VicPol is that they’re actually UN peacekeepers brought in because the real police refused to beat their own people.

    People with breast milk fetishes are being discriminated against because new mums are dishonest about their vaccination status. Nobody wants to take the vaccine via boob, right?

    I’m not sure how many of these are put forward by punters trolling the loons, but there were no yeah nahs in disagreement.