Victoria’s COVID cases surge higher

Victoria has recorded an outbreak high 473 locally acquired COVID cases over the past 24 hours:

More than half are mystery cases. Of the 473 new local cases, only 202 are linked to known cases and outbreaks.

The next chart plots Victoria’s cases this outbreak, which continue to trend higher:

VIC daily cases

Victoria’s daily cases continue to run way ahead of NSW’s at the same point in their outbreak:

VIC vs NSW daily cases

Victoria has now passed 3500 active COVID cases:

VIC active cases

With active cases running ahead of NSW’s at the same point in their outbreak:

VIC vs NSW active cases

Meanwhile, Victorian Premier Daniel Andrew has indicated that he will release details of the state government’s reopening road map this week.

Andrews has previously suggested that restrictions in Melbourne will ease marginally when 70% of the state’s eligible population has had at least one vaccine dose. This figure currently stands at 66.2%, and the 70% milestone is expected to be achieved on 17 September.

Unconventional Economist
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Comments

    • They all get covid at least once before they finish primary school. That’s what living with covid means – everyone gets it multiple times, and the outcome is determined by your medical history on the day you’re infected.

    • The principle is spot on with his position. Yes kids can catch it, but statistics are on his side when it comes to recovery.

      Bugger CV-19….look at that Jabry family portrait, its child abuse to let your kids become obese so young. Way more long term health issues coming that families way from obesity than any CV-19 infection.

        • Parents should have had their jab, they have had plenty of time. The outcome, parents and kids now have some vaccination or infection based protection, its a good result all things considered and is inline with broader community sentiment of being “over it”.

          • Should have had a jab? Have you tried booking on the system in Victoria yet? I only got a vaccine becuse I was willing to get AZ. I’m under 40 and we only just got the opportunity to get a vaccine. Bit harsh to say people should have got 1 by now. Besides you don’t get protection immediately. Takes weeks and ideally you need second dose.

          • Gavin, I was the one who told you about availability on Astra. I also acknowledged in several threads the booking process was crap. Having said all that, if you wanted to get a vaccine there was plenty on offer if people cared enough to book. As you said yourself, Pfizer vs Astra…same same.

    • Influenza is a kid killer, covid (so far) is not. After they all catch it the virus will disappear for an average of 4 years until sufficient new kids are born to spread it around again. This is how the 4 other human cold coronaviruses work. Fortunately immunity is long lasting, only 2-10% can recatch the virus again (symptomatically)

    • There is news in the last few days on the Pzifer vaccine for under 12’s. The FDA released a statement here:
      https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-will-follow-science-covid-19-vaccines-young-children

      Briefly they said don’t vaccinate your child prior to FDA approval and confirmed they are requiring 2 months follow up for each child in the trials. Previously there was the possibility of up to 6 months follow up being required, see here:
      https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/30/pfizer-director-dr-scott-gottlieb-on-covid-vaccine-for-kids-5-to-11.html
      “If the FDA sticks to its normal timeline, in terms of how it reviews these applications, you would expect that review to be a four-to-six week review for a potentially emergency use authorization, so that puts you on a timeline where you’re late fall, early winter,”

      This is now updating the best case time lines to a month earlier:
      https://www.cbsnews.com/news/scott-gottlieb-covid-19-vaccines-approved-children-face-the-nation/
      “In a best-case scenario, given that timeline they’ve just laid out, you could potentially have a vaccine available to children aged 5 to 11 by Halloween”

      The above would be an emergency use authorization in the US, think still need 6 months data for the full authorization like the adult vaccine now has. I don’t think the TGA in Australia does emergency authorizations so likely would need 6 months, so at least February here at best.

      In the Pfizer trial they are targetting a 1/3 the adult dose for kids 5-11.

  1. Still a lot of wishful thinking going on………here is some modelling showing that herd immunity ( which all of these push through ideas assume is possible ) is a long shot……..same is true of losing virulence with time…….possible but by no means assured.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7709188/

    All countries who are trying to push through are simply trying to carry higher baseloads of infection and see if their hospitals systems collapse in the next peak…….some core EU countries seem to be doing well but this could be seasonal and there is some data that Beta is getting into the EU

    https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1437113690810056706/photo/1

    The virus is still in charge, we are taking a huge risk making promises that may not be able to be kept and how do they expect to be able to get people to go along for the next steps if this blows up in their faces ? High risk for unknown advantages.

    • Best advantage you can have is relatively small cities so that outbreaks are more easily contained. Megacities in the vein of London, New York and even Sydney are going to be hobbled for a while.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Thanks for the links Nyleta.

      This Pandemic is running on a timescale most western democracies are unable to process. Our institutions and leaders really can’t think further than the next poll.

      The virus is gonna virus, despite all the wishful thinking.

  2. A significant portion of the population no longer complies with lockdown, so the only viable route is to vaccinate as many people as possible before opening up, then pray that the hospitals don’t get overrun. The biggest danger, as in the case of NSW, is to fully open up at 70% 2 dose rather than 80%. What other country like England have shown that those who got one dose will stop getting the second dose once lockdown is lifted. In the worse case scenario, hospitals will refuse to admit unvaccinated COVID patients. NSW is already doing that right now with their ‘hospital in the home’ regime. (soon to be known as ‘Die in the home’)

    • Hospitals were always going to be overrun with a once in a lifetime virus rampaging around the globe and minimal excess capacity in ICU. If people choose not to get a 2nd dose after opening, that’s their call as are the consequences. In a triage situation ICU staff will judge people based on this.

      The virus will unsympathetically judge us all on health and vaccination decisions. Vaccination is the easy bit and allows a get out of jail free card for many with poor lifestyle decisions. Everyone has been warned for years….loose weight, dont smoke, dont drink to excess, get 30mins a day of exercise, eat a balanced diet. Its not like the warnings haven’t been thick and fast for over 30 years.

      • In a triage situation ICU staff will judge people based on this.

        Will they?

        Sounds like supposition.

        Your second para disregards this thing hits healthy people too (I agree with your general sentiment though re: healthy living)

      • ‘In a triage situation ICU staff will judge people based on this.’??

        Lol, if the triage situation was so bad that they were choosing between vaccinated and unvaccinated the person who tips the triage person the most will get the care. Make sure you have some cash or bullion stocked up in the event hospitals are being over run and you want to secure care. Make sure you aren’t a tight ass and try to tip with a couple pineapples, I am talking $10k+ to buy that conscience. You are relying on triage person having already made difficult decisions against their morals if the hospital system is that bad, why shouldn’t they get something out of a bad situation.

    • The Penske FileMEMBER

      People complying with Lockdown…. there’s a movie shoot being done right now on Southbank…. essential workers? No wonder the people aren’t listening anymore.

  3. Frank DrebinMEMBER

    0 cases acquired from overseas – at least that process now seems to be working effectively.

    Time for wholesale home-based quarantine for returning citizens !.

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