Victorian COVID cases hit five-day low

Victoria has recorded 705 new COVID cases and one death:

It was the lowest daily case count since 22 September:

The Reff is slightly down on yesterday, now at 1.35, according to CovidBaseAU:

1.376% of the tests reported over the past 24 hours in Victoria returned a positive result, versus the 7-day average at 1.311%:

Victoria’s COVID cases continue to run well ahead of NSW’s at the same point in their outbreak:

And Victoria now has more than 8500 active COVID cases:

Finally, Melbourne’s lockdown has extended to 239 days since the pandemic began. The world lockdown record continues!

Unconventional Economist
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Comments

  1. Again, only a single (1) death in VIC!?
    How do they do it? Is that a Dan made miracle?
    Mind you, ACT still at zero.
    Could it be that those poor NSW buggers are far more touched
    by Their Royal Merdejikliness than they are willing to admit?
    Not that one could blame them for getting in the bed with Merdejiklian and then keeping quiet about it.

    • As much as a four week lag from positive case to death and with a partially vaccinated population meaning less than 1% of positive cases dying you need a few hundred cases for the average daily deaths to be much more than one, and it got above 200 cases in a single day less than four weeks ago.
      Don’t worry – there will be double digit death deaths within three or four weeks now there has been a day over 800 cases.

        • As a point of comparison – first time NSW recorded over 800 cases was 20 August. That same day there were three deaths and the 7 day average was 4 deaths per day. It was another three weeks before they experienced more than 10 deaths in a day for the first time (14 September).

  2. run to the hillsMEMBER

    AFL Grand Final Parties should get the daily case numbers back on a rising trend by next week.

    • Not sure – I live about fifteen minutes walk from Whitten oval – last Saturday night was the quietest night around here for two or three lockdowns.

    • This is true.

      I had multiple people tell me they were having BBQs for the GF. People just slept over to avoid being pinged during curfew hours.

  3. Don’t worry I sure the thousands of new ICU beds Dan promised at the start are just about to be announced.

    • This government is a massive failure.
      I’d be surprised if we even get 1 of the thousands we were promised.

    • Indeed. The delays in opening up are about him protecting his rep from being the fall guy because of the underinvestment in hospitals. If you knew you had capacity you wouldn’t need to wait for 80%-90%, you would just set a date and let people to decide on vaccinations. You also wouldn’t care about vaccination passports because it would be up to the individuals to deal with the consequences as ICU’s could treat as needed. There has been enough vaccine for months now for the vulnerable to get it, the enforcement and restrictions are not about you, your health or medical professionals. It’s 100% politics and reputational protection for the Govt’s.

      WA, QLD, NSW are all in the same boat.

    • Another double digit death day (12) there.
      “I love the smell of the corpses in the morning. It smells like… Merdejikli-land.”

      • A market.
        No, a bat
        No a snake
        No, a Pangolin
        No, another bat. In Laos this time. Which hitchhiked to Wuhan.

        BUT none of these related viruses have the unique furin cleavage site. That has never turned up in nature despite 2 years of searching.
        “The Laos study offers insight into the origins of the pandemic, but there are still missing links, say researchers. For example, the Laos viruses don’t contain the so-called furin cleavage site on the spike protein that further aids the entry of SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses into human cells.”

        Rather than bats in Laos, why not consider a somewhat closer source. A lab that spent years researching coronaviruses, and which at least contemplated work one this furin cleavage site.

        https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02596-2
        “The study also doesn’t clarify how a progenitor of the virus could have travelled to Wuhan, in central China, where the first known cases of COVID-19 were identified — or whether the virus hitched a ride on an intermediate animal.”

        “Another preprint, also posted on Research Square and not yet peer reviewed, sheds light on the work under way in China. For that study, researchers sampled some 13,000 bats between 2016 and 2021 across China. But they did not find any close relatives of SARS-CoV-2, and conclude that these are “extremely rare in bats in China”.

        “Wang says that both studies highlight the importance of ramping up sampling in regions outside China to help uncover the origins of the pandemic.”
        Why sample outside China?