Victoria records another 334 COVID cases

Victoria has recorded another 334 locally acquired COVID cases over the past 24 hours:

More than half are mystery cases. Of the 334 local cases, only 149 have so far been linked to known cases and outbreaks.

One person also died with COVID.

The next chart plots the daily cases, with today’s number the highest this outbreak:

VIC daily cases

Victoria’s daily cases continue to track ahead of NSW at the same point in their outbreak:

VIC vs NSW daily cases

Victoria now has more than 2400 active cases:

VIC active cases

With its trajectory on a similar course to NSW:

VIC vs NSW active cases

Same story, different day.

Unconventional Economist
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Comments

  1. So after barely coming out of the last lockdown we re-entered a new 7 day snap lockdown to go hard and fast so we didnt end up like NSW (Dictator Dan’s own words), yet here we are tracking exactly the same as NSW. That snap 7 day lockdown is going real well for us. And how could the curve be almost identical and rapidly increasing while we are in lockdown, and have social distancing and are wearing face masks.

    Can people not see the solution they are providing (lockdowns, masks, social distancing) is not working, we keep trying the same thing and expecting a different result.

    • https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8395971/

      “There was no reduction in per-population daily mortality, hospital bed, ICU bed, or ventilator occupancy of COVID-19-positive patients attributable to the implementation of a mask-wearing mandate.”

      If not for Sweden’s weak 2019 flu season you wouldn’t even see the 2020 death impact:

      https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

      And 2021 deaths will probably turn out on the low side there since the ‘dry tinder’ has been burnt up.

      The whole thing is just theatre.

      • Everyone is completely ignoring the impact of the “dry tinder”. Sweden and the UK had very high death rates compared to other countries, but ultimately the virus merely pulled forward the deaths of those who would have died shortly anyway. Therefore, a low death rate is being attributed to vaccination when the reality is simply that there are less sick and dying people left to get sick and die. The real test is going to come in countries who had really low death rates from covid, who are full to the brim with “dry tinder” after 18 months of not being exposed to just covid but also all the other flu and respiratory viruses that normally killed elderly people. Unfortunately, Australia is going to be top of that list.

        • Personally dont think ANZ will see the same deaths rates of 100-130 per 100K that Europe produced in phase 1 directly attributed to CV-19. The 1st EU/US outbreaks occurred without vaccination air cover while ANZ now has access to vaccines, especially for the vulnerable. The dry tinder will still perish remembering that 80-83 is the average life expectancy for our citizens. Those with severe co-morbidities often much younger due to diabetes, heart disease etc.

          I see a stage of excess deaths but the burn rate on that dry tinder will be slower than Europe/US. This is another disease that makes them more vulnerable and there is no way around that. Vaccines will buy some time but wont prevent a portion of excess deaths over time.

        • Compared to both the amount of pre-existing at risk people, and the demographic wave that’s coming (you might have heard of the baby boomers – they start turning eighty in a few years) covid has had a fairly negligible impact.
          In the roughly 18 months covid has been in the UK, about 133k have died from it. There were more than 10 million people in the UK over 65 back in 2011 – the number was growing at about 100k per year. So since covid first arrived in the UK, there might have been a net decrease in the number of over 65 year olds of minus 17k.

    • Yep. This version is too infectious and people are too burned out to keep trying. Protect the vulnerable, isolate if unwell, vaccinate, deliver at home therapies and move on with life.

      Excess deaths will be higher for a few years but should reduce as we get better treatments or it mutates to less deadly strains.

      This is us now.

    • Delta has changed all of that. Once it takes hold with only a small amount of cases, lockdown effectiveness is severely limited.
      NSW government for all their faults have realised that and are going for the VAX+LIR. Victoria will do the same in due course.

      • where is the data that can be verified? For instance the data from the politicians is saying only unjabbed are filling the hospitals, yet interviews with nurses are saying its only the jabbed filling the hospitals.

        We need valid data that can be cross referenced and independently checked so we can get a transparent view of the situation.

        There is a letter doing the rounds from the Aus Federal Government saying the cannot provide any isolated samples of the Delta strain. If you do not have an isolated sample you have nothing to compare tests and samples against. I’ve also seen other data that says the PCR test cannot differentiate between strains or even the flu.

        We. Need. Hard. Data.

          • Fishing,

            It is complete BS.

            The amount of rubbish that is being spouted is breath taking.

            The idea that the Health department would be inventing stats on the vaccination status of those who are hospitalised is just bonkers. It only makes sense if you buy into the nutty theory that the NSW Health Department has some interest in getting people to take vaccines that don’t work.

            The simple unpleasant fact is that the vaccines work even if they are not perfect.

            As a result few people who are vaccinated are ending up in hospital. Some do of course because the vaccines are not perfect.

            Those who cannot accept that fact (because they don’t want the vaccines to work) are forced to invent some X-File style theories that someone is silencing the nurses (at least those that are not happily leaking the TRUTH) who have seen wards full of “vaccinated” patients.

            We are living in the salad days of choose your reality and it is proving very popular.

    • Err that is not exactly the same, the relatively small increase when compared the same week since start of current outbreak in Vic will mean they will have something like 2x the cases NSW currently has when they get to week 77ish. (though obviously just a small change in effective R number could have a big impact either way)

  2. Diogenes the CynicMEMBER

    Leith it might be good to include the timeline chart of hospitalisations (bar) with a percentage of total hospital use that is COVID, along with ICU covid cases and percentage of total ICU capacity. That seems like it will become the thing to focus on in terms of lockdowns and policy response rather than cases.

  3. If you have recently been vaccinated then you have some protection, which is why most of those in hospital are unvaccinated. Protection only lasts 2 months, and is basically gone after 6 months. So just like the UK, over the next 6 months the hospital wards are going to start filling up with vaccinated patients. Even with booster shots, you are only buying yourself another 2 months.
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1485821/vaccine-warning-israel-data-pfizer-vanishes-covid-delta-strain-coronavirus

      • He might’ve got it on the quiet but in a few months when he’s the one pushing boosters, even the ass kissing journos will have to press him on when he’s had his booster. Won’t look as bad then when he tells them it was months ago though.

  4. FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

    Lol Gladys and Hazzard to stop doing Covid briefings from next week. MiSSION ACCOMPLISHED

    This after admitting the worst of the crisis will build fom here into mid October. Now THATS how you lead!

    • There won’t be any need to ramp up the propaganda any longer. Once they’ve got people to get vaccinated they simply have nothing else left to force people to do.

    • Frank DrebinMEMBER

      Thank Christ for that – the self serving aggrandisement of these things makes my eyes and ears bleed.

      In the case of WA and Qld, do you really need a press conference every day to announce you have zero cases ?. Put our a farking press release and get on with other stuff !!.

      • lol, a bunch of us having been bitching for months that govt covid updates is one of the few things twitter is good for. Nothing useful in a full press conference that 1 or 2 tweets couldn’t cover.

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