Victoria records 766 COVID cases, 4 deaths

Victoria’s COVID outbreak continues to worsen with the state recording a pandemic high 766 cases and four deaths:

The next chart plots the breakout in daily cases:

Victoria’s cases are running way ahead of NSW’s at the same point in their outbreak:

Victoria’s active cases have ballooned to 6,666:

And they are running far ahead of NSW at the same point in their outbreak:

Sucks to be a Melburnian right now.

Unconventional Economist


  1. Last year a few of us that do this work for a living warned you can’t lockdown forever. Sooner or later it will get in. Or the virus will evolve. Lockdowns are like other wars – easy to get into and hard to get out of. Too many people become dependent on the perception of safety and you get trapped.

    We were shouted down and DLS told us to FO. So we did.

    And you fell into group think.

    How’s it going?

      • Frank DrebinMEMBER

        Another crucial reason we why we need to ban Ivermectin.

        If we eliminate Covid too quickly then the floodgates might be opened to all kinds of immigrants and also possibly horses. We don’t want them overwhelming the country.

    • This was always about getting as many people jabbed as possible. Dan has now disconnected daily case numbers from freedom and tied it to jab rates. This is sheer lunacy, since when are freedom’s given or denied on whether you have had a medical procedure, and one that is still only provisionally approved by the TGA and is a new type of jab with no long term human data?? And yet people are still cheering this narrative on. I’m honestly astounded people cannot see what’s going on. In Lithuania they only managed to jab 30% of the population before they shut down the clinics as the people rose up in protest’s against the jab and all associated BS. They can see it, but Australians have never suffered under tyranny, therefore they have no idea what they are looking at. Tragic

      • I am still working hard to understand the details of this issue.

        I am working very hard to allocate factors between:-
        1) stupidity
        2) incompetence and ego
        3) opportunistic power and wealth grabs
        4) longterm cyclical societal decline
        5) evil conspiracy – planned conspiracy by a small group of evil people

        I invariably allocate more to the top numbers and less to number 5 – evil conspiracy. In general the evil conspiracy is a less likely explanation because it requires intelligence and competence and luck and a high level of trust and secrecy between the evil doers. Therefore conspiracy is unlikely and should be considered last, if the other reasons cannot explain things.

        Having said that, this article deserve a read

        It is more on the conspiracy and cyclical societal side. It suggests a link between the imminent financial collapse and the deliberate release of the virus, and vaccines that were ready and waiting for the event.
        It’s worth a read.

          • Ginger,
            Thanks for posting that article.

            Just read the below extract. Clearly the writer is stark raving mad!!!!!!!!!

            He should be dragged off to re-education camp!!!!!!!! IMMEDIATELLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLYYYYYYYYYYYYY !!!!!!!!!!!!!

            Open Letter to CDC
            I am the founder of the COVID-19 Early Treatment Fund ( Our work in funding early treatments for COVID was featured on 60 Minutes. I have been vaccinated and my entire family has been vaccinated….
            Using the VAERS database and other official government data sources from the US and around the world (covering 35% of the world’s population), we found evidence that clearly demonstrates that the current vaccines are significantly more dangerous

            4/ Early treatment and prophylaxis protocols are a superior option to the current vaccines, yet have been inexplicably ignored by the NIH:
            • Higher relative risk reduction (over 99%)
            • Greater safety (minor temporary side effects, known safety profile)
            – They lower both all-cause mortality and all-cause morbidity
            – They work equally well on all variants
            – They do not promote escape variants
            – They do not cause vaccine enhanced infectivity/replication
            – They do not cause prion diseases
            – They prevent long-haul COVID syndrome nearly 100% of the time
            – They enable people to acquire recovered immunity which is both 13 times stronger and more durable than vaccine-induced immunity

            We recommend the committee take the following actions:
            • Require autopsies for all deaths within 4 weeks of any COVID19 vaccination so that data is available to compute an estimate of the true all-cause mortality.
            • Make available the analysis of the 11,000 deaths investigation in VAERS for public inspection. It’s important for the public to understand why the CDC couldn’t attribute a single death to the vaccine whereas one of the world’s top pathologists ascribed at least 30% of all deaths to the vaccine.
            • Explain publicly why there is a death peak on the second day after vaccination if the vaccinations are perfectly safe and not causing deaths.
            • Explain publicly why the severe adverse side effects are dose dependent

            [..] • Recommend that vaccine mandates should not be issued without evidence of a statistically significant all-cause morbidity decrease (which there is not in this case).
            • Define a COVID vaccine stopping condition after which that vaccine should be halted until the stopping issues are addressed. In 1976, the stopping threshold was 35 deaths.

        • I think you’ve missed the point, and even what appears to be the quite reasonable rationale of the treatearly org. i haven’t looked further than their overview in which the banner states “How can we prevent hospitalization until enough vaccine is distributed?”
          My first response was about Raul’s post and you respond with loosely related hyperbole.
          What is it with the Covid response and irrational and emotional outbursts?

          • You said he was a nutter, so I showed his nuttiness and suggested a way to deal with it!
            These days I’m having trouble telling humour from serious comment.
            BTW Is Ginger your name, your hair colour, or your culinary preference?

        • The author appears to have a blind spot for the lies, bullshit, corruption and insanity on his side of the political spectrum. I think he also attributes a higher level of competency and capacity to coordinate to the global cabal of elites than they deserve. They’re absolutely acting in bad faith, but it’s more opportunistic than anything.

        • In general the evil conspiracy is a less likely explanation because it requires intelligence and competence and luck and a high level of trust and secrecy between the evil doers. Therefore conspiracy is unlikely and should be considered last, if the other reasons cannot explain things.

          It also typically lacks coherency, consistency, and any way to objectively assess it on merit (since contradicting evidence is always dismissed as fabricated or manipulated).

          Having said that, this article deserve a read

          The irony is the bloke writing that litany of hysterical paranoia probably calls everyone else fearful, just like he thinks he’s the rational one despite his premise being cyclical theory pseudoscience.

        • Top read Claw!
          Confirms that Straya is the test pilot for what’s ahead!
          We’re ‘down under’ the boot already and most don’t seem to mind at all.

    • I don’t think most people realise yet how permanent much of the damage from lockdowns will prove to be for Melbourne and Victoria. Society will be more divided than ever – and this will be reinforced by the new vaccine caste system being put into place (which I believe may have the opposite intended effect). Inequality will skyrocket. Our politics will become more bitter, acrimonious and populist – the people who have been shunted and walked over by the media and those in power will have their revenge at the poling booths. Prepare to see a few more Craig Kellys ascend over the next few years. Disrupted schooling will stunt a generation of children. The psychological damage will play out years from now. And the extraordinary and unprecedented overreach by Vic Pol has crossed lines that cannot be uncrossed.

      I know several people who were born in totalitarian regimes and fled to Melbourne to start new lives – every single one has either already moved or is planning to once restrictions are lifted, they’ve seen this movie before and it doesn’t end well. I imagine that many prospective students and migrants around the world will think twice about choosing Victoria as a place to study, work or live. I myself am a young professional and I’m 80% sure I’ll be relocating too when that becomes possible, many of my family members are considering following however some are tied down with businesses etc.

        • Depends on what your needs and priorities are. I’m fortunate enough to be able to work from anywhere in the world with an internet connection. I’m currently researching the best destinations where I can get good bang for buck, agreeable weather, decent digital infrastructure and the freedom to live my life in the way I see fit. I’ll let you deduce for yourself based on those criteria.

      • Society will be more divided than ever – and this will be reinforced by the new vaccine caste system being put into place (which I believe may have the opposite intended effect).

        I have been left wondering a lot, recently, whether the people throwing around words like “caste system” and “apartheid” simply don’t know what those things are, or genuinely don’t perceive any difference.

      • You are right. George Gammon had a podcast on this last year. Talked about need for 2nd passport. Also the need for you to define (in advance) where you draw the line – what point do you exit. If you just have a vague plan to leave if it “gets too bad”, then you keep justifying, keep moving the line, and stay.

        • Good advice. For me that line was well and truly crossed this week. The only issue is when. I was initially thinking 2023, but that may even be too late.

  2. The problem I can see is the costs of lockdown don’t seem to be added to the risk assessment at all. Probably because those doing the risk assessments are not affected by lockdowns as they are well off white collar workers who can work from home.
    The costs to children’s mental health and education have already exceeded the potential death toll if no restrictions were in place. It is a profoundly sick society that sacrifices its children’s wellbeing to save a bunch of nearly dead geriatrics.

    • its sad you just don’t get anymore than the immediate cause and effect. Go do an Arts degree then you’ll learn to view the world, absorb the data and make great reasoned arguments.

      • You do realise you didn’t provide any data or a reasoned argument? High distinction on arrogance though, well played you!

  3. Don’t despair. It only sucks because your zooming in to the y axis and focused on it every day.
    Zoom out and plot Australia against the UK or US (or pretty much any other country in the world) and things don’t appear as bad as what it seems. In any case, summer is coming and it will be all cleared up for the Christmas Family BBQ. Whether Dan allows you to have one or not, well that a different worry.

  4. Can anyone explain the vertical drop on the Blue line( NSW cases) in the graph ?
    It looks a bit contrived .

  5. With Vic due to get to 75% first doses tomorrow hopefully vax dampening of the spread/increase in daily numbers is imminent … would be good to know where NSW was at 2 weeks ago

  6. I hope Scott brings back some Pfizer with him from the U.S. Moving the 2nd dose back to 3 weeks would make a difference.