US Delta wave peaking

BofA with the note:

Recent Covid developments have been somewhat encouraging. Weekly case growth in the US has dropped to around 5%. Cases appear to be at or close to the peak in some states–most notably Florida–that were hit the earliest and the hardest by the Delta wave. Yet we think the situation is likely to remain tenuous until end-September.

The good news is that hospitalizations are running slightly below our optimistic scenario and vaccine distribution has picked up faster than we were expecting(Exhibit 1).

The bad news is that our model is projecting a pickup in underlying transmission due to end-of-summer travel and reopening of schools. The impact of the latter is particularly uncertain.

Hospitalizations and deaths lag cases but are likely bigger drivers of consumer sentiment. We see a growing risk that Delta continues to weigh on the economic into September.

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