The Morrison Government is starring down the barrel of an election wipeout according to the latest opinion poll from Roy Morgan Research [my emphasis]:
ALP support has increased to 54.5% (up 0.5% points since mid-August) cf. L-NP on 45.5% (down 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This was the third straight increase in support for the ALP and they are now up 4% points since having a narrow lead in mid-June (ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5%) according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention.
This is the largest two-party preferred lead for the ALP since the national bushfires crisis of last year when the ALP enoyed a maximum lead of 10% points on a two-party preferred basis in early February 2020 (ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%).
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Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
