Residents flee Victoria at record pace

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) last week released state population data for the March quarter of 2021, which revealed that Victoria was the only jurisdiction to lose population over the year, with the state losing 42,900 people (a 0.6% decline):

State population growth

At the other end of the spectrum, Queensland added 43,900 people (+0.9%), with the nation as a whole adding just 35,700 people (+0.1%).

As shown in the nest chart, Victoria’s population loss was driven by negative net overseas migration (-53,484) and negative net internal migration (-18,191), partly offset by 28,821 natural increase (i.e. births minus deaths):

Victorian population growth

Queensland has been the primary beneficiary of Victoria’s resident exodus, with net internal migration into Queensland rising to 30,785 in the year to March 2021:

Net internal migration by state

Victoria’s resident exodus was the first since June 1981 and was obviously heavily influenced by Melbourne’s 14-week hard lockdown last year.

My prediction is that this year’s long lockdowns across New South Wales and Victoria will see more residents from both states head north into Queensland. Not only has Queensland been far less impacted by lockdowns, but it also has very affordable housing compared to either Sydney or Melbourne:

Brisbane house prices vs Sydney Brisbane house prices vs Melbourne

This is why I am particularly bullish on Brisbane property.

Unconventional Economist

Comments are hidden for Membership Subscribers only.